Thoughts on MIN/GSW

brainfreeze0 · 03-19-12, 04:22 PM

I took GS. Theyre coming off a loss and a day of rest with home court advantage. GS's already proved they can do it without Ellis. I just think GS has the advantage here personally.

IllyPhilly[DOC] · 03-19-12, 04:29 PM

If Pekovic doesnt play which I'm guessing I like GSW more. Regardless i am taking GSW just for the fact that 2 good cappers here each have that as their only play. I did some looking at the game too. Beasley re sprained his toe in SAC so he is questionable, though i think he plays. Pekovic on the other hand is questionable and not having him will deff give GSW a better advantage. Both teams avg around 100 a piece in the last few road games for Minny and the last few home games for GSW. Over is just as good as a play tonight the number opened at 205 and was at 202 earlier at one shop but has gone back to 204 just now. If one team in the late games is going to win on the road tonight it will be Dallas IMO

leetreaper · 03-19-12, 04:31 PM

GS at home been money all season so far...

brainfreeze0 · 03-19-12, 04:32 PM

Originally posted by leetreaper

GS at home been money all season so far...

Agreed. GS has had a solid home fanbase for quite a while. die hard, and they know it.

Love The Action · 03-19-12, 05:08 PM

Originally posted by brainfreeze0

Agreed. GS has had a solid home fanbase for quite a while. die hard, and they know it.

Fans dont play the game and the gsw front office tanked the season. Personally, I would not back gsw against norfolk state....

brainfreeze0 · 03-19-12, 05:12 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Fans dont play the game and the gsw front office tanked the season. Personally, I would not back gsw against norfolk state....

Then I guess by that logic homecourt/ homefield advantage makes no difference (even though it's factored in as an advantage when the lines are made)

Speedy88 · 03-19-12, 05:18 PM

Originally posted by leetreaper

GS at home been money all season so far...

How so? They are 10-12 straight up at home, and 10-12 ATS at home. How is that money?

They used to be money at home in past seasons past, but not this year.

And I agree with LTA, anytime you trade your best player along with a good young piece for a guy who isn't going to play one game this year, you are tanking the season. Meaningless game for GS, big game for Minnesota.

moshi · 03-19-12, 05:36 PM

Even though a lota guys on Minny, I like them to win today too.

Les_Nuts · 03-19-12, 05:39 PM

Was feeling over earlier but I think under 204 is a strong play here

Speedy88 · 03-19-12, 05:45 PM

This is pretty much make it or break it time for the TWolves. They have lost 3 in a row, and here is what their upcoming schedule looks like:

@GS
@SA
@OKC
vs DEN
@ MEM

Being 2 games behind Houston for the 8th spot, with PHX and UTA fighting for the last playoff spot as well, they can't afford to drop this very winnable game. You can't expect to make the playoffs if you lose to Sacramento and GS.

I'm going to back Minnesota here, but this game will be telling. A win means they still want the playoffs, a loss likely means they are likely headed to the lottery. I know it is early, but if your in a 4 team race for one spot, you can't lose b2b games to Sac and GS.

Good luck everyone.

IllyPhilly[DOC] · 03-19-12, 05:47 PM

Look at this team after Rubio... It's showing like a lottery.

blacknwhite · 03-19-12, 05:49 PM

GSW is hardly tanking their season... They weren't in playoff contention to begin with.
They don't need montay eEllis , they think they klay Thompson is good enough to play with curry (and his ankles made of paper)

And they needed another big man (udoh was shit on the offensive end; but is young and still has a lot of potential). They're taking a gamble on bogut.. Who is injury prone But I guess that's the best they can get for Ellis

Anyways I agree ; GSW at the oracle -1.5 if I had to choose

BigDofBA · 03-19-12, 05:50 PM

Originally posted by leetreaper

GS at home been money all season so far...

LOL. My ass. If you had bet them every game at home you would be down. Now they longer have their best player.

If I play this, I would take the Wolves but as of now it's no play.

Speedy88 · 03-19-12, 05:54 PM

Originally posted by BigDofBA

LOL. My ass. If you had bet them every game at home you would be down. Now they longer have their best player.

If I play this, I would take the Wolves but as of now it's no play.

That's what I was saying. How the hell have they been money at home? They are actually a better road team (12-8 ATS) to back than a home team (10-12 ATS) to back.

If Pek plays, GS may not grab one rebound.

BigDofBA · 03-19-12, 06:01 PM

Originally posted by Speedy88

That's what I was saying. How the hell have they been money at home? They are actually a better road team (12-8 ATS) to back than a home team (10-12 ATS).

If Pek plays, GS may not grab one rebound.

Agreed. Their lines are kind of skewed when they are at home. In other words, they get too much respect for their home court advantage. It's not surprising that a lot of people on this forum have the idea in their head that Golden State is money at home.

Comments like "Golden State is money at home" just make me want to take the Wolves.

Golden State wasn't covering when they had Ellis.

Love The Action · 03-19-12, 06:12 PM

Originally posted by brainfreeze0

Then I guess by that logic homecourt/ homefield advantage makes no difference (even though it's factored in as an advantage when the lines are made)

Exactly my point. You said gsw has an edge because of their fans. However, that is already factored in so that edge is neutralized.

And when your front office trades your best post player for a center that is not going to play this season, then they have given up. Its all about losing enough not to have to trade that top 7 protected pick.

brainfreeze0 · 03-19-12, 06:16 PM

It's factored in as an automatic, but some teams play better with die hard fan bases. GS's record at home this year hasnt been great, but overall theyve always done better at home. However, you take a team like the Clippers and homecourt means jack to them unlike others. It's factored in, but that doesn't mean that some teams don't play harder when at home than others do.

tatddy · 03-19-12, 06:20 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Exactly my point. You said gsw has an edge because of their fans. However, that is already factored in so that edge is neutralized.

And when your front office trades your best post player for a center that is not going to play this season, then they have given up. Its all about losing enough not to have to trade that top 7 protected pick.

Only problem with that is their coach is a minister and doesn't know how to lay down and lose like he should.

SaMSoLeeT · 03-19-12, 06:22 PM

GSW still looked good after the monte ellis trade unlike Minn after losing Rubio tanked almost all their games.

Speedy88 · 03-19-12, 06:25 PM

How have they looked good? They are 1-3 since trading him.

YouHave2outs · 03-19-12, 06:36 PM

Warriors lost one of those games by one possession against the Celtics Speedy. All things considered, I would say the Warriors have not lost as much firepower as expected with the losses of Monta and Udoh. Klay is pretty darn good. I am going to the game tonight and playing Warriors -1 1h.

they're retiring Mully's jersey at halftime. Gotta pick up a few free bobbleheads for the sisters.

flyboy · 03-19-12, 06:47 PM

GSW and the Over!!!!!

Speedy88 · 03-19-12, 06:52 PM

Originally posted by YouHave2outs

Warriors lost one of those games by one possession against the Celtics Speedy. All things considered, I would say the Warriors have not lost as much firepower as expected with the losses of Monta and Udoh. Klay is pretty darn good. I am going to the game tonight and playing Warriors -1 1h.

they're retiring Mully's jersey at halftime. Gotta pick up a few free bobbleheads for the sisters.

Very true, they did play both BOS and UTA close. However, losing to the Celts at home is never a good thing. Celtics are hot garbage on the road. But I do agree that losing Monta won't hurt as much since it will allow others to step up. I just think Minnesota needs a win here much more than GS does. Have a good time at the game.

rake922 · 03-19-12, 08:24 PM

I know one thing..... GSW will cover at least 1 of 2 halves....