NBA Wednesday.. 2-1 yesterday.. 83-48 YTD 63.4% +63.7 units
Keep in mind that my picks are primarily based on market analysis and situational power rankings, the following write-ups are not exhaustive as to the factors that led to my booking each play.
All power rankings are SOS weighted and split exclusively between home and road performance. Home performance has no affect on a team’s road power ranking and vice-versa.
Play:
Golden State Warriors +4
I am actually pretty shocked that the Celtics aren’t getting 90% of public action right now. The Warriors are a banged-up team that just got rid of an extremely overvalued player. This game has all the makings for a public disaster.
Most of the value here comes from the perception that the Warriors are going to be playing scrubs. Curry has a worthy back-up/fill-in with Robinson (who has the 3rd highest Roland rating on the team.) Robinson is a spark plug that makes the most out of every start he gets. he is hungry to prove himself and I can’t think of another player that is a better back-up spot start PG in the rest of the league. The Warriors will gain size when they play Wright/Rush at the same time and Klay Thompson, realistically, isn’t much of a downgrade from Ellis. The public has absolutely no idea how wrong they are about this Ellis move, and that gives Vegas a license to kill by way of inflating this line to the very limit.
Because I am thorough, I included Ellis and Udoh in the injury column and accounted for their absent contribution. That said, the Warriors still come away with a 6-point ATS edge, but I think it is even bigger than that in reality.
Referee assignments:
I am keeping my eye on the Cavs, if we can get +6.5 I may be willing to lay money on them. Will update via twitter.
All power rankings are SOS weighted and split exclusively between home and road performance. Home performance has no affect on a team’s road power ranking and vice-versa.
Play:
Golden State Warriors +4
I am actually pretty shocked that the Celtics aren’t getting 90% of public action right now. The Warriors are a banged-up team that just got rid of an extremely overvalued player. This game has all the makings for a public disaster.
Most of the value here comes from the perception that the Warriors are going to be playing scrubs. Curry has a worthy back-up/fill-in with Robinson (who has the 3rd highest Roland rating on the team.) Robinson is a spark plug that makes the most out of every start he gets. he is hungry to prove himself and I can’t think of another player that is a better back-up spot start PG in the rest of the league. The Warriors will gain size when they play Wright/Rush at the same time and Klay Thompson, realistically, isn’t much of a downgrade from Ellis. The public has absolutely no idea how wrong they are about this Ellis move, and that gives Vegas a license to kill by way of inflating this line to the very limit.
Because I am thorough, I included Ellis and Udoh in the injury column and accounted for their absent contribution. That said, the Warriors still come away with a 6-point ATS edge, but I think it is even bigger than that in reality.
Referee assignments:
- James Capers: 14-15-1 home team ATS record
- Tony Brown: 13-18 home team ATS record
- Haywoode Workman: 12-15-1 home team ATS record
I am keeping my eye on the Cavs, if we can get +6.5 I may be willing to lay money on them. Will update via twitter.
