Early RLM Thread ..

PR9 · 03-13-12, 02:27 AM

Miami is being ridiculously juiced like I havent seen before at this hour on a RLM. We are talking -125 at -3.5.. why in the world would anyone take that when they can buy a half pt at a cheaper price

hawley · 03-13-12, 02:31 AM

I dont believe you can really start to look at RLM this early when books have low limits and will be taking a lower volume of bets. Looking at RLM closer to tip off has a lot more merit

Bryan T · 03-13-12, 03:27 AM

do u guys think that following the line for making ur bet will give you a better win percentage? not just talking rlm either. like if a fav goes from 7 to 7.5 its more likely to cover. im asking because i feel like every time i place a bet and the slightest line movement thats not in my favor i lose that bet. im really curious to know the percentages of how often those favs cover and how often they lose if it were to go from 7 to 6.5 regardless of how high the percentage of bets is on either side. strictly by which way the line moves.

Speedy88 · 03-13-12, 04:48 AM

Glad to see this thread.

Looking at Pinny now, and Miami is being juiced up to -121 at -3.5, and ORL is at +3.5 +110. Not so sure how the RLM would work on that one. Looks like Pinny is forcing people to take ORL unless they want to pay the high juice.

Pauulzcappin · 03-13-12, 05:08 AM

Originally posted by Speedy88

Glad to see this thread.

Looking at Pinny now, and Miami is being juiced up to -121 at -3.5, and ORL is at +3.5 +110. Not so sure how the RLM would work on that one. Looks like Pinny is forcing people to take ORL unless they want to pay the high juice.

This juicing and shit barely matters until 8 am pacific.

PR9 · 03-13-12, 08:56 PM

TONIGHT

So far 1-0 with ORL covering vs Miami.

4-1 record over the past 2 nights. It will be 5-1 or 4-2 depending on if Sacramento covers the -2.5 later against GS.

Make these early RLM plays every night as I have, as there hasnt been a losing night of all the nights Ive gone with this. Of course the recent past has no indication of the future, nothing is guaranteed in life, but Every Night that weve been kept track its been .500 or better with early rlm moves.

Speedy88 · 03-13-12, 11:58 PM

Sac played like such crap.

Only RLM play so far for Wednesday is the Bulls -3.5.

If Deng and Watson are playing, I'm totally in on CHI.

PR9 · 03-14-12, 02:00 AM

1-1 tonight (4-2 last 2 nights)

Early RLMs for tomorrow nights action

- Bulls move from -3 to -3.5 with 80% on Miami

- Suns moved from -4.5 to -5 with much higher % placed on Jazz

- Lakers move full point down from -5.5 to -4.5 with about 70% placed on them

moshi · 03-14-12, 02:44 AM

Hmm...I'm already leaning CHI, PHO and NOH so I guess this is good news.

PR9 · 03-14-12, 03:02 AM

Originally posted by moshi

Hmm...I'm already leaning CHI, PHO and NOH so I guess this is good news.

yes its good news for you.

BTW I've been playing all of these at $200 a pop. They have been automatic bets for me and if theyre already a good play in my mind (without this rlm distinction) I bet more,, if not they go at 2 units a pop ( i don't bet more than 5u on a game anymore like I did in the first month of the season) .. I'm hitting like 80% of the plays that Ive felt good about initially and then found out they fell into the "early rlm" realm (when combined) .

If I already feel really good about it, then see its an early rlm, I'll lay more on it. That's happened quite a bit (though i'm not advising you to do so as nothing is guaranteed, just relaying the fact that its been working for me)

BOL

hawley · 03-14-12, 03:19 AM

can you explain the significane of early RLM?

What if the line moves early but then goes the other way later?

monologue · 03-14-12, 04:29 AM

I believe early RLM is simply books adjusting their spread due to the game result of today.
since miami lost to orlando, they receive 0.5 more than yesterday
lakers went OT, so i guess they moved by a point

PR9 · 03-14-12, 11:53 PM

Originally posted by PR9

1-1 tonight (4-2 last 2 nights)

Early RLMs for tomorrow nights action

- Bulls move from -3 to -3.5 with 80% on Miami

- Suns moved from -4.5 to -5 with much higher % placed on Jazz

- Lakers move full point down from -5.5 to -4.5 with about 70% placed on them

Tonight

2-1 tonight (6-3 over the past 3 nights). Suns and Bulls cover, New Orleans does go to OT but don't cover.

Will post early RLMs for tomorrow nights action in a couple of hours (they can move between now and 4:00am EST).

hawley · 03-14-12, 11:56 PM

PR9 · 03-15-12, 06:09 AM

There was no movement for tonights games. Just 5 games being played.

PR9 · 03-15-12, 11:09 AM

just a note. I didn't notice any RLM moves at around 3:00am last night. However at around 8:00am EST this morning I did notice a RLM favoring Denver by a full 2 point shift, and totally crossing the PK barrier from +1 to -1 ..

We will not keep it in the record as it didn't hit the 4am deadline, but we'll keep an eye out for it as no team was bet on more heavily than OKC last night going by the percentages.

PAULYPOKER · 03-15-12, 11:14 AM

Southern missis +5½-110

PR9 · 03-15-12, 11:50 AM

Originally posted by PAULYPOKER

Southern missis +5½-110

Page Not Found - Sports Insights

http://www.sportsinsights.com/promos/college-basketball-betting-trends-bracket.aspx

PR9 · 03-17-12, 12:22 AM

No early RLMs last night but there are definitely some for tomorrow nights action. Record is 6-3 for the past several nights..

Tomorrow Night:

- Line moves a full point from DEN -5 to -6 with 75% on Boston

- Indiana moves from -4 to -4.5 with 80% on Knicks

- Dallas moves from -1.5 to -3 with over 60% on Spurs

- Bulls move from -6 to -5.5 (as of an hour ago it was 59% were on them but now down back to 50%, not sure whether some of that earlier % was partly to do with tonights game .. will look at it again in a couple hours to confirm)

PR9 · 03-17-12, 01:05 AM

Bulls at well over 60% so that play will be included in the tally .. there was no reason to back up that line when CHI is staying home with Philly traveling on a b2b.

Speedy88 · 03-17-12, 01:38 AM

Really like Denver and Dallas tomorrow. I think Indi returns the blow and covers against NY. Tomorrow will be a good test to as how good NY is after the D'Antoni firing.

Speedy88 · 03-17-12, 01:44 AM

Really like Denver and Dallas tomorrow. I think Indi returns the blow and covers against NY. Tomorrow will be a good test to as how good NY is after the D'Antoni firing.

PR9 · 03-17-12, 01:30 PM

that denver line wont stop going up.. to -7 and even -7.5 at some places, and still the celtics receiving 65% of bet volume . Glad I got it early at -5.. will make early bets & in game too

Vitooch · 03-17-12, 01:54 PM

SA lines screams trap.

Speedy88 · 03-17-12, 02:25 PM

I don't know why the spread.com is showing that the line opened at DEN -6.5. All last night it was at -6.

PR9 · 03-17-12, 02:28 PM

Originally posted by Speedy88

I don't know why the spread.com is showing that the line opened at DEN -6.5. All last night it was at -6.

It was -5 last night as my first post shows. It also opened at -5 at various books when I placed the bet. Sometimes they reset the opening line the following morning at a different number making people feel that its a slight jump rather than a large jump..

that`s one of the reasons why Ive been saying that the early RLMs are far more reliable (from my experience)

.

Speedy88 · 03-17-12, 02:59 PM

Originally posted by PR9

It was -5 last night as my first post shows. It also opened at -5 at various books when I placed the bet. Sometimes they reset the opening line the following morning at a different number making people feel that its a slight jump rather than a large jump..

that`s one of the reasons why Ive been saying that the early RLMs are far more reliable (from my experience)

.

I was thinking the same thing. I think thespread doesn't want people to realize the giant jump from -5 to -7, so they just reset it and everyone think it only jumped half a point.

PR9, what do you think about DEN 1Q vs DEN 1H?

PR9 · 03-17-12, 03:25 PM

Originally posted by Speedy88

PR9, what do you think about DEN 1Q vs DEN 1H?

all depends on their demeanor during the 10 minutes before tipoff

Speedy88 · 03-17-12, 03:35 PM

Originally posted by PR9

all depends on their demeanor during the 10 minutes before tipoff

I won't be watching because I'll be watching the NCAA tournament. If you notice anything, you should post it on here.

Speaking of demeanor prior to the game, LTA just posted an article saying the Raptors had traveling issues last night and didn't fly out to Charlotte until this afternoon.

Kindred · 03-17-12, 04:28 PM

late line movement is the most important not the early..but GL

Allure · 03-17-12, 05:23 PM

Originally posted by Speedy88

Speaking of demeanor prior to the game, LTA just posted an article saying the Raptors had traveling issues last night and didn't fly out to Charlotte until this afternoon.

Which would explain the line movement. Charlotte are worth a shot.

sstrunks52005 · 03-17-12, 06:23 PM

so is dallas/bull/denver the plays?

freshguy222 · 03-20-12, 04:22 AM

re you going to continue with this thread PR9? i mean everyone can get the plays himself but would be ncie forthe record

PR9 · 03-20-12, 02:58 PM

^^ ya sorry. Two nights ago I was only concentrating on the NCAA tournament (only bet 1 nba game and one 1st Q play on Sunday). Last night I took a peek at around 3:00am and didn't see any early RLMs for tonight's action

thread record 8-5 so far