NBA Friday.. 2-0 yesterday.. 74-46 YTD (61.7%) +50.1 units
Hey guys, just beginning to post my plays on this forum. I've been posting on several forums all year. I do not know what the record keeping policy here is, I am documenting my record with 3 official trackers as well as a detailed and regulated record at bettingtalk. My full YTD NBA record is in the subject line, but I can start a new record for this forum, if that is necessary.
Keep in mind that my picks are mostly based on market analysis and situational power rankings, the following write-ups are not exhaustive as to the factors that led to my booking each play.
All power rankings are SOS weighted and split exclusively between home and road performance. Home performance has no affect on a team’s road power ranking and vice-versa.
Play:
Sacramento Kings +2
Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units
The Kings just have a straight-forward edge in this match-up. Neither of the teams plays counter-intuitively like we’ve seen several times in the past 2 days. Both teams are near the league average in terms of percent of spreads covered, so there isn’t any active progression/regression involved with those bigger-picture stats either.
The most noticeable edge that the Kings hold over most teams at this point in the season is that they improve with every game. The Kings have talent for days, but they have been lacking in the experience and leadership departments. When looking at my power ranking for the past 10 games only, the Mavs only rank 0.1 point higher than the Kings. If you’re an odds maker creating this line only based on recent performance, the Kings would be a 3 to 4 point favorite in this game.
This line has already moved in reverse, but the Mavericks are getting more public money than any other side right now, at 82%. I expect the public to tip the scales this afternoon and push this line up to around +3 around game time. However, if this line is +1.5 or less near game time we will just take the ML and save juice.
Referee assignments:
Keep in mind that my picks are mostly based on market analysis and situational power rankings, the following write-ups are not exhaustive as to the factors that led to my booking each play.
All power rankings are SOS weighted and split exclusively between home and road performance. Home performance has no affect on a team’s road power ranking and vice-versa.
Play:
Sacramento Kings +2
Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units
The Kings just have a straight-forward edge in this match-up. Neither of the teams plays counter-intuitively like we’ve seen several times in the past 2 days. Both teams are near the league average in terms of percent of spreads covered, so there isn’t any active progression/regression involved with those bigger-picture stats either.
The most noticeable edge that the Kings hold over most teams at this point in the season is that they improve with every game. The Kings have talent for days, but they have been lacking in the experience and leadership departments. When looking at my power ranking for the past 10 games only, the Mavs only rank 0.1 point higher than the Kings. If you’re an odds maker creating this line only based on recent performance, the Kings would be a 3 to 4 point favorite in this game.
This line has already moved in reverse, but the Mavericks are getting more public money than any other side right now, at 82%. I expect the public to tip the scales this afternoon and push this line up to around +3 around game time. However, if this line is +1.5 or less near game time we will just take the ML and save juice.
Referee assignments:
- Derrick Stafford: 18-12 home team ATS record
- Eric Lewis: 15-17 home team ATS record
- JT Orr: 12-15-1 home team ATS record
