NBA Double Play Monday

ram1502 · 02-21-12, 08:24 AM

Hey LT, as most consider you an expert on line movement (RLM in particular), at the risk of sounding like an idiot...I have a question for you. Say team A opens at -6. Team B has 70% of the public on them, yet the line moves to team A -7 (with 6K total bets on the game). This is classic RLM and means there is more money on team A in the 30% than on team B in that 70%... Right? Wouldn't the books then need team B to cover? People are always saying "there is 70% on the lakers, I gotta take the blazers..." but if the blazers have a full point of RLM (AKA more money on them), wouldn't it be prudent to side with the lakers in this example?

LT Profits · 02-21-12, 08:33 AM

Originally posted by ram1502

Hey LT, as most consider you an expert on line movement (RLM in particular), at the risk of sounding like an idiot...I have a question for you. Say team A opens at -6. Team B has 70% of the public on them, yet the line moves to team A -7 (with 6K total bets on the game). This is classic RLM and means there is more money on team A in the 30% than on team B in that 70%... Right? Wouldn't the books then need team B to cover? People are always saying "there is 70% on the lakers, I gotta take the blazers..." but if the blazers have a full point of RLM (AKA more money on them), wouldn't it be prudent to side with the lakers in this example?

Yes sounds right except that timing (and/or having slow moving books) is everything. If Pinny goes to -7, better to find a -6 or -6.5 somewhere, especially if it is later in the day. No matter what method you use, your goal should always be to beat the closing line in an efficient market like NBA.

ram1502 · 02-21-12, 08:57 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Yes sounds right except that timing (and/or having slow moving books) is everything. If Pinny goes to -7, better to find a -6 or -6.5 somewhere, especially if it is later in the day. No matter what method you use, your goal should always be to beat the closing line in an efficient market like NBA.

Got ya. Thanks for your quick response. GL sir!

FreeFall · 02-21-12, 11:29 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Yes sounds right except that timing (and/or having slow moving books) is everything. If Pinny goes to -7, better to find a -6 or -6.5 somewhere, especially if it is later in the day. No matter what method you use, your goal should always be to beat the closing line in an efficient market like NBA.

wouldn't this imply you are backing the square money or the side with 70% after we defined the "side with the more money coming in on it" as the 30% side? Doesn't this contradict RLM?

LT Profits · 02-21-12, 11:37 AM

Originally posted by FreeFall

wouldn't this imply you are backing the square money or the side with 70% after we defined the "side with the more money coming in on it" as the 30% side? Doesn't this contradict RLM?

Did i misread something? He said Team A opened -6 and Team B (the dog) had 70% of the bets.