I didn't have a dog in this fight. I wanted to take POR +2 with everything I had but I ended up being 3 minutes late by the time I got home. I feel for the POR backers though. The fact POR loses their 4th in a row at home SU is something that doesn't happen.They had control all night and let it slip away. Sh*t.. imagine if you got +3 Suicidekings? At least it'd be a push. I guess the point of this post was to say that the Blazers WAS the right play but it just happened to not work out (and those that say "Well they lost so it wasn't the right play" obviously are new to gambling, the real world and all things intelligent).
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Their problem is Batum is great for 3 and a half quarters.
Crawford tried to single-handedly win the game but couldn't.Comment -
True say, blazers were the "right/sharp" play, but the one major problem that existed was that they could drop dead tired from being a jump shooting team on a BTBTB. This was far from a lock or what have you. 1H was the smartest play IMOComment -
Lol at everyone thinking the blazers are some crap team. Yes they completely blew this game, but that doesn't make them a weak team. They were without their best player. They will be just fine once they get Aldridge back.
Did they poop the bed tonight, yes. But are they a bad team, no.Comment -
They're not a crap team, but without their best player, they are a crap team.Comment -
Port +3 here. God bless the half-point hook buy. Feels like a win considering the Blazers severe meltdown.Comment -
Smart move, bro. Imagine if you "cheaped out" and took that +2.5. You'd feel really cheap, then.Comment -
Exactly. I think Batum is one of the most underrated players in the league. But from what I've seen so far this season, he consistenly plays great in every game early but then fades away. Crawford played a great game but, as you said, grew tired from not only the 3 games in 3 days, but from trying to carry the team the entire night. He can't do that. He's never been a starter (or at least a consistent, valuable starter ala early CHI days) and so he's best off the bench for a spark. Not as someone to carry a team. They fell short and they shouldn't have.
I agree. On B2B2B, people (bettors on SBR) automatically think "well the defense is going to suffer because they're tired" which is only half true. The other half is that jump shooters, and predominately jump shooting teams, are worn out. They don't have it in their legs. Defenses may lack in these fatigue spots but so will jump shooters and jump shooting teams. That's one facet I've noticed a lot of people fail to realize around here. Not sharps but the average gambler, which you could easily spot because they (or 70% of SBR) play the favorite. And poof.. Clips cover tonight, so they think their geniuses.
They're not a crap team at all. The loss of Aldridge was huge but won't cripple them. They have enough bench/role players to compete and get a playoff spot in the West. Batum and Matthews have been terriffic, and will continue to be so. Once they get a bit of rest, and a bit of perspective, I think they'll be back on track. Crawford just needs to realize he doesn't need to, nor should try to, do everything himself.Comment -
Obviously that was misunderstood. When I said "I wanted to take POR +2 with everything I had" here is the translation:
"I wanted to take POR +2 with all my might but I couldn't pull the trigger."
I would never put my entire bankroll on one game/play let alone on one night.Comment -
I'm curious exactly how you guys determine which play is the "right/sharp" play despite it being the play that loses? I mean it almost seems like taking the favorite on this forum is a FORBIDDEN SQUARE thing to do?
Blazers lost their last game to Wizards @ home... barely beat a warrior team with practically no monta ellis, third game of b2b2b... do not have their best player in the post... while clippers are fully healthy.. so again what exactly made blazers the "sharp" play? the fact that they were the underdogs?
And I know that the blazers looked like the "sharp" play because they were up huge after 2.5 quarters. But you could say the exact opposite about the rest of the game... and when else does CP3 ever have 0 pts after 3 quarters?Comment -
"The Right Pick" is pig latin for "Damn, I lost"
Ignore all instances of that phrase, as well as "Square" on SBR, and you will make more money.
Oh, and also avoid threads using the word "Hammering..." and "Pound _______ hard, lock of the day"Comment -
Avoiding threads like "Hammering" or "Pound" is almost a given. Like I was told once, "A blind man finds his favorite porno every once in awhile." Just because someone makes a thread stating to pound Team A and they win, doesn't mean they know what they're doing or how to do it. However, I do have to disagree with your defintion of "The Right Pick." If line movement, situation, angle and stats point you in one direction (and not all that criteria fit the Blazers game, I'm just saying in general), and that side loses, you're saying it is still not the right play? Could it be that it was the right play but the variable (the actual team) didn't show up/couldn't/want to play that particular night?Comment -
I'm of the train of thought that before a game, there is no "right pick" because of the very variables you just mentioned. The NBA by far has the most variables of any pro sport, hence, all the close, 1-2 point cover losses due to free throws, intentional fouls, scheduling (especially THIS year), and more. There are certainly picks that SEEM right, but no pick is one that "should definitely have won." You can only pick what YOU, the better, feels is correct, and go with it.
If you lose a bet, it's because you made the WRONG pick, not because "the right pick" didn't come through. The "right pick" theory is something a person says to stay positive when they lose. Which is fine for them, but when they tell a winner that their (losing) pick was better than theirs, it's sad. Rather than making excuses, move on and use your "right pick" knowledge to bounce back the next day.
It'd only a day awayyyyy.Comment -
mr o mac you are getting super carried away tonight. hope you're drunkComment -
It seems we're on the right train of thought as far as capping for this year given the scheduling, injuries, etc. This year has been the hardest, for me at least, of the last 5 years to cap and gamble on because of the schedule. For instance, the books seem to be almost on target when it comes to O/U's, as I've lost damn near 20 O/U's this year within 1-2 points.
But on to the point where we disagree: you're telling me if every possible thing in the world (stats, angles, line movement or RLM, situations, etc.) points to one team but the team has a let down, there is no such thing as a right pick? Following that logic, let's have a monkey flip a coin and decide who will win, because with your logic, it's the same. There's a reason why sharp, or actual, gamblers make money and why novice's don't. They do research. A monkey doesn't.Comment -
I feel like this is how most Blazers' spreads end, honestly.Following that logic, let's have a monkey flip a coin and decide who will win, because with your logic, it's the same.Comment -
LTA is a very solid capper, a little better then myself. We seem to use the same style but I, of course, make one too many plays. The two things I give him credit for are that his analysis is usually spot on, which i commend him on, and he keeps his plays low (1-2 plays). I'm taking a few days off from capping but I recommend tailing him, as you just did for me. But if you see them out, NoCoin, Lakerboy, BW and Dad are pretty solid, with the first two having a long track record then the latter.Comment -
I tend to go 2-1 or 3-2 every night, making the "one extra play" too many.
My huge bets seem to balance out. The wins seem to come easy and the losses seem to be heartbreakers. But losses are losses.
I'm happy with making money and enjoying the sport. I haven't been this into NBA viewing/analysis since '07 or so.Comment -
Cheers to that and truths. I agree though. Very glad I didn't make it home to make the bonehead play, but i nabbed the 2H U 92.5 which was good enough for me. Anyways, for me, POR has joined my short list, because of their play recently, of teams I stay away from period: ATL and ORL (waaaay too inconsistent), GSW at home, and fade POR on the road, and apparently, fade all together.
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Oh i agree. If you saw my thread, I started off very solid, but the last 2 weeks were a nose dive. So what did I do? Did I show restraint? Did I go to bed? Oh no. I chased on 2H spreads/OU and dug myself deeper cause I'm too buzzed to actually make a smart decision. Because of my increased gambling, you could name just about any player (probably 85%) and I could tell you their stats and what college they went to. I haven't been THIS involved or overly obsessed since the great draft of Jokaim Noah.Comment -
This is not true. Tonight, if you would have bet Portland you could have easily made money from in-game betting. I did not bet in-game, but if you would have bet Portland +115 before the game I would wager a large amount of money you would have had many opportunities to arb and have a guaranteed profit. If you bet Portland you originally made a "right" bet that put you in a position to make another bet which guaranteed a profit. One could definitely argue that Portland was the "right" bet in that game. If the only option was full game bets before a game starts than I could maybe see one arguing that Portland was the "wrong" pick.Comment -
Gambling in some funny shiit, huh?Comment -
But again how do you define what "the right pick" is supposed to be? Everybody has different interpretations of what factors are/are not advantageous or how they view line movement, etc. but at the end of the day ATS W-L speaks the loudest, rather than the "what should have been" W-L.
what I've seen on this board in particular is that there's so many wanna-be public-fading "sharps" on this board. example - 90% of the time, barring injuries, let's be honest, Miami Heat at a small spread are "the right pick" or at worst a "solid" pick to make. yet 90% of the people on here will ALWAYS say it's a trap... and then when the Heat do end up covering... the same people come back and say "squares won"...
but just as when you lose in real-life sports... own up to your losses and admit that the better team won...
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You're right. I can debate with any and all posters about who was the "right" side or "right picj" but in the end, the records speak for themselves. I can agree with that. The way I look at it is that if I may the percieved "right" play on, say, ATL away v. ORL, and it loses, well so be it. It happened. But if I make a "lock of the century" on CHA but it loses by a point, then i'm an idiot. Because CHA, whether for or against, is a idiotic play. From what I've learned/seen/heard, there are only a handful of people I take picks/advice from (LTA/LB/NC) and I lay it there. I've got my own thread, my own thoughts, my own advice and I pick them how I do. I never claim a "lock of a century" and neither do these gentlemens (from what I've seen). Key is to stay away from the wanna-be sharps. Just because MIA covers a -3.5 spread, on the road, against MIL, and everyone and their mother on SBR said it was THE play of the day, doesn't make them smart. Remember: a blind man finds his favorite porno every once in a while.But again how do you define what "the right pick" is supposed to be? Everybody has different interpretations of what factors are/are not advantageous or how they view line movement, etc. but at the end of the day ATS W-L speaks the loudest, rather than the "what should have been" W-L. what I've seen on this board in particular is that there's so many wanna-be public-fading "sharps" on this board. example - 90% of the time, barring injuries, let's be honest, Miami Heat at a small spread are "the right pick" or at worst a "solid" pick to make. yet 90% of the people on here will ALWAYS say it's a trap... and then when the Heat do end up covering... the same people come back and say "squares won"... but just as when you lose in real-life sports... own up to your losses and admit that the better team won...Comment -
I saw them higher just before the season started. They are crap, look at the road score and losses to WIZ and struggles vs every team. Felton is 2nd worst PG in the league lolComment -
yup agree, to me, the "right play" is the play that you make after rationalizing, and the one that even after seeing the result, you still think if you had to do it again, you'd make the same play. honestly IMO just putting in the effort and reasoning before choosing a play makes it "sharp" decision. after that, 50% (or more) is totally out of our control and totally depends on if the players are having a good day.
though POR/LAC was a total mess today... I'm pretty sure that both sides were slapping themselves for making their respective picks today at different parts of the game and wondering why they made their picks... I was on clippers -2 and could not believe how cp3 performed (0 pt 1 ast through 2Q) and that the clippers had their lowest pt total of the season in one half against an aldridge-less blazers. just like you said... no such thing as locks... NBA betting at its finest...Comment -
Alright champ, I'll dispose you're argument real quick: the Wizards beat the Thunder. Explain to me what that means. Are the Wiz better, then, the Thunder? Does that make Oklahoma City any less of a team then Portland? Washington beat Oklahoma City, who beat Portland, and Portland beat Oklahoma City. You're logic is insufficent and has no standing.
NEXT: They have struggled against every team? Do you actually do any research before you spew stupid, irreprehensible, illogical shiiit? In their wins, they've won by an average of 14.875 points (to a decimal for you idiotic, non-factual morons) and in their losses? By an average of 7.214ish points. They've struggled? Really? Get your facts straight before you rant a bunch of dumb, unfounded stuff on here. But then again, that's my mistake for thinking SBR posters had at least a high school education.Comment -
Alright champ, I'll dispose you're argument real quick: the Wizards beat the Thunder. Explain to me what that means. Are the Wiz better, then, the Thunder? Does that make Oklahoma City any less of a team then Portland? Washington beat Oklahoma City, who beat Portland, and Portland beat Oklahoma City. You're logic is insufficent and has no standing.
NEXT: They have struggled against every team? Do you actually do any research before you spew stupid, irreprehensible, illogical shiiit? In their wins, they've won by an average of 14.875 points (to a decimal for you idiotic, non-factual morons) and in their losses? By an average of 7.214ish points. They've struggled? Really? Get your facts straight before you rant a bunch of dumb, unfounded stuff on here. But then again, that's my mistake for thinking SBR posters had at least a high school education.Comment -
Your paragrapgh pretty much sums it up.. I agree. You do the research, the leg work, watch the line movement and basically put as much of the odds in your corner, but ultimately, it's up to the teams to perform as expected. And by "as expected" I obviously mean the way we expect when we handicapped them.
I'm really glad I didn't get home in time to place a bet on this game (left my phone at home for the first time in like 6 years, thank god). NBA.. Where Amazing (Astounding, Atrocious, Absolutely-*******-Ridiclous) Happens. Feel free to insert any of those "A" words for amazing. Best of luck to you sir for the rest of the year.Comment
No he wants to win an argument he can't win.
