Too many of you guys are tying to be sharp. Quit over-thinking everything. Trends and which side is the public and the public's money on, that's all that matters.
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agreed
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Exactly.Comment -
most here are that way because far too many times they have gotten bitten by a "too good to be true" scenario... Of course it's easy to dismiss these losses as rare occurrences but when you've been on the wrong side of a "seems easy" bet so many times it's normal to become jaded and almost paranoid that the world (or atleast Vegas) is out to get you.
"Screw me once, shame on you. Screw me twice, shame on me"
Everyone starts out square as fukk... I don't care who you are.... it's only after trials, tribulations and lots of money lost do we begin to shed the "square" way of thinking and learn to read between the lines.
P.S - there is more to sports betting and handicapping than "trends and public money"... but if you wish to base all your plays off such then power to you.
BOL on the season and beyond fellas.Comment -
Completely agree.Originally posted by SpreadSniper
As far as your "handicapping" comment. Well handicapping is a complete waste of time, imo. I win again and again for years now betting the NBA and I will admit I can name maybe 10-12 current NBA players at most and haven't watched one game all year. This is about making money to me, nothing else.Comment -
So what exactly do you do? You talked about considering what the public is betting. Can you get into a little more details about your approach plz?Comment -
Hes talking about the amount of bets on certain teams. Today it looks like public is all over Miami, New York and San Antonio. You can see in this chart that shows the percentage of amount of bets being made on a certain team. Of course theres more to it then just the percentage but thats where you most likely start.Originally posted by LOL
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Start with what? Are we following them or are we fading the public? I just cant understand how this should help us...Comment -
Originally posted by LOL
Read this....Comment -
So I take it you wager on the non-public side?Comment -
if fading the public was that easy why isn't ever one rich?
there is no "secret" or "right" wayComment -
Only tools...Originally posted by onacloudComment -
But if everyone bet the non-public side, it would be the public side...Originally posted by onacloudComment -
LmaoComment -
just because these sites show you that everyone is "on one side" doesnt mean shit.
it is only when public perception is that a team will kill another AND everyone is on one side or the other that it is time to FADE the money side of the play.
the difficult part is "knowing" what public perception is.Comment -
Wow, 54 % on visiting teams that the public doesn't like (where only 25% of public bets on them) over eight seasons is a pretty big deal I think.Originally posted by CHAZ
Chaz did u see that and do you make big bets whenever that happens (whenever a visiting team only gets 25% of the public)?Comment -
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The information you find about where the public is betting only shows you where the highest number of bets are, not the highest amount of money. It doesn't tell you squat. There might be 70% of the bets on the Heat, but only 40% of the total money, because there are tons of small bets on the Heat but a lot of big bets on the opposing team. I'm not sure why anyone thinks that this data is useful. Just handicap the damned games and stop trying to find some sort of "system."Comment -
I beg to differ....Originally posted by toddorts
Scenario
Team A -3.5 @ Team B
Team A = 75% Team B = 25%
Line moves from -3.5 to -2.5, yet this means nothing? I know of a lot of "Tom, Dick and Harrys'" who play 5 - 100 bucks a game, but I only know of a few guys with enough money to actually make a line move and Ill tell you which side I'd rather be on knowing they are dropping multiple dimes on a given team on a given day....
"Hey look, Vegas just shaved another point on Team A, it's an even easier bet now!" - pfffft, good luck with thatComment -
Everyone looks at spreads and game for the whole game.
What if there's a different variable.. as in second half of a game?
If everyone loads up more money on a side in a game at the half.. then the opposite would win, surely it changes the factor of the whole game. Everyone thinks too much about this. You can't beat the system. People win and lose all the time.Comment -
You missed the most important part of looking at the public lines. You explained it but still missed it. Like Spread sniper said theres something to be said when a line with 80% bets moves against. There's a reason lines move. Big money or big injury both should be important to you.Originally posted by toddortsComment -
i totally agree with the rest of your post, but your last part was you failing to comprehend what he said. there are definitely possible scenarios whereas 70% of bets are on Heat and 40% total money on them.Originally posted by CHAZComment -
So does the line move because they are striving to get an equal amount of money on each side or because of large wagers being placed on a particular side?
If the line is adjusted due to equal money for each side, then looking at the betting percentages would totally show where the big money is being played which is where people on the RLM kick will want to be.
If the line is adjusted because large wagers are placed on one side, then some people would still want to side with what looks to be the less popular line move to the majority of people (based on the number of bets placed).Comment -
Gotcha. I was skimming on my phone standing in line.Originally posted by YouHave2outsComment -
No, but I probably should lol. I bet for a hobby and to keep the games even more interesting. I don't have time to keep track with it really. I try but I'm sure I miss mostOriginally posted by MoneyOnBball
Automoto- there are tons of different reasons y lines move. Sometimes it happens when a well known syndicate or a big money guy makes a play, not just your recreational bettor. It's at it's most obvious when you see the public pounding one side and then the spread moves against. It's also known as Reverse Line Movement
If this seems like a run on or just me mumbling it's because I'm sitting in traffic lol
Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong guysComment -
In many cases, lines move because of where the book is noticing the sharp money to be going, not because of the volume of money. With all of the tracking that internet offshore books can do on everyone's accounts, they know exactly who the sharp bettors are, and the books that welcome that money (like Pinnacle and Bookmaker), use it to their advantage to fine-tune their lines. You could easily have 70% of the bets on one side, but a group of sharps come in and bet on the other side, and you still see the line move in favor of the side that already has 70% of the bets. Because there aren't many sharps, you won't see the percentage of bets move, you'll only see the line movement.Originally posted by CHAZ
People would be better served to focus on improving their handicapping skills rather than spending all of their time watching line movement and betting percentages. Yes, RLM bets have shown a slight edge in the past, but any halfway decent handicapper has a better edge than can be found with such gimmicks, and there's no way of knowing whether that RLM edge is going to continue or if it was just a fluke. Handicapping skills last, gimmicky systems usually don't.Comment -
from everything i have read, vegas only strives to get 'sharp' money equal on both sides. they do not give a flying fk about casual bettors or where they put their money. their main goal is to get 50/50 sharp money on both sides (in my opinion)Originally posted by AutomotoComment -
I've been wondering this for awhile and want to hear other people's thoughts on this:
It seems like even recreational betters, like myself, understand that when a line moves its because the book just got a big bet (or more than one) on one side and wants to entice bets on the other side to even out the action. So, if the line moves from +3 to +2 and you want to be on the sharp side, you would take the +2 rather than -2 since the sharp money moved the line down. Now if most rec players on SBR understand this, then I'm sure there are bigger players who can see when the sharpest money comes in better than we can. So, do you think that book would consider moving the up line to 3.5 or 4 in order to throw off people trying to chase the sharp money?Comment -
Has nothing to do with handicapping games, it is all math, Billy Walters plays or does not play at a certain number, you got to understand the math behind the markets, otherwise you are just guessing
READ PINNICLEPULSE ARTICLES, THE BOOK IN THE SBR BOOKSTORE, CONQUERING RISK, KNOW WHAT +EV IS , VARIANCE, Z-SCORES .........PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS, .....MEAN, REGRESSION ETC
AND STUDY line history!!!!, YOU WORK AT IT YOU UNDERSTAND BETTER, AND YOU WILL GET GOOD AT ITComment -
look to bet unders as wellComment -
No, because the people chasing sharp money is the smaller bettors. Sharp money or wise guy money whatever you wanna call it is BIG $$$$. If they moved the line like that then those guys would pound it even harder. They aren't following the line movement looking for RLM, they're the reason for it.Originally posted by celtics3388Comment -
Fading the public in the right spots is +EV, not every game.Comment
