Does OKC Losing Change Your Stance On UTA Tomorrow?

MJT1212 · 02-10-12, 02:15 AM

I like OKC since they just lost.

BigBurk · 02-10-12, 02:17 AM

Even though OKC has been on a bad run in their road trip lately (amazingly they pulled out wins at Portland and GS) I think they will approach this one highly motivated after last nights loss at SAC.

If they had won tonight's match at SAC I would probably have gone with Utah +1, but something tells me OKC will take this so I already went with OKC -1 as I think this line will probably move to -2.

Speedy88 · 02-10-12, 02:28 AM

OKC could easily be 0-3 in their last 3 games. They are far from unstoppable on the road. We've already seen them lose SU to the wiz.

PR9 · 02-10-12, 02:37 AM

that's correct. Funny how people thought they are this unstoppable force when they're one bad goaltending call and a lucky Durant bank shot (that he didn't even mean to bank - that's why it was lucky) from going 0-3

and 0-4 if you include them getting spanked in San Antonio 4 games ago.

Speedy88 · 02-10-12, 02:40 AM

Originally posted by PR9

that's correct. Funny how people thought they are this unstoppable force when they're one bad goaltending call and a lucky Durant bank shot (that he didn't even mean to bank - that's why it was lucky) from going 0-3

Lets not forget that they are still a fairly young team. Young teams are always shaky on the road, regardless of how good they are. Notice how the Bulls continue to cover all these spreads on the road.....because they have a ton of veterans who know how to win on the road.

And to add to the Thunder. They are a jump shooting team. Jump shooting teams are always very capable of losing on the road.

PR9 · 02-10-12, 02:41 AM

And in all those 4 games OKC has given up 106 points or more in every fukkin one of those games.

Their defense has been piss poor (save for some nice Ibaka blocks). Their transition D is almost non existent as well.

Speedy88 · 02-10-12, 02:46 AM

Originally posted by PR9

And in all those 4 games OKC has given up 106 points or more in every fukkin one of those games.

Their defense has been piss poor (save for some nice Ibaka blocks). Their transition D is almost non existent as well.

Shows how key Sefelosha is to their team.

hawley · 02-10-12, 02:47 AM

unfortunately yes.

Physically it presents the same challenge for the Thunder but mentally it is a different game

pro-style · 02-10-12, 07:29 AM

Take jazz and stop thinking about it.

Kalibongo · 02-10-12, 07:46 AM

Gun to my head, I'll take the Jazz, but I probably might pass this one up.

m11chen · 02-10-12, 08:37 AM

Originally posted by Speedy88

OKC could easily be 0-3 in their last 3 games. They are far from unstoppable on the road. We've already seen them lose SU to the wiz.

1 game means nothing. 72-10 Bulls lost to the Raptors that year, don't over-react to 1 game.

Love The Action · 02-10-12, 08:44 AM

Probably a pass now....unless okc money gets us a better number than +1. GL

BigDofBA · 02-10-12, 09:35 AM

I think it says something about your team when you can win close games on the road that everyone is predicting you to lose. This will help us come playoff time

We could be 0-3 in the last three but we're not.

We could have easily won last nights game. It goes both ways. I could say we could have easily been 3-0.

Utah will be a tough game. Teams slip up on the road. It happens. What team in the NBA doesn't lose a game like this every now and then?

pro-style · 02-10-12, 09:49 AM

Everyone bonehead out there will go, "OKC will have a bounce back game!". The bookmakers know this. There already has been an overreaction to this in the line.

CHAZ · 02-10-12, 09:59 AM

Originally posted by pro-style

Take jazz and stop thinking about it.

Originally posted by Love The Action

Probably a pass now....unless okc money gets us a better number than +1. GL

I'll wait for the public to wake up and hope to get a better number.

t-wizzle · 02-10-12, 10:05 AM

Utah is the play

migz · 02-10-12, 10:06 AM

I still picked Utah, it's gonna be hard to bounce back on second game of b2b plus 5th game in 7 nights plus altitude? Am I right?

ugabooga · 02-10-12, 10:36 AM

Jazz for me too

*whispers* "boards gonna get buried"

thebestthereis · 02-10-12, 10:42 AM

The golden state late night home dog trying to be sharp bailout theory

pro-style · 02-10-12, 10:45 AM

Originally posted by CHAZ

I'll wait for the public to wake up and hope to get a better number.

I think I'd be willing to wager the public won't move this line.

Balco10 · 02-10-12, 11:13 AM

Also like Utah here. Utah is very solid at home and Thunder are road fatigue.

theblueprint · 02-10-12, 12:14 PM

Originally posted by pro-style

Everyone bonehead out there will go, "OKC will have a bounce back game!". The bookmakers know this. There already has been an overreaction to this in the line.

But the line was out before the game ended yesterday.

njcardshark · 02-10-12, 12:50 PM

I dont think this is necessarily a bad spot for the Thunder. 14 of their last 21 games have been on the road, and yes are 8-6...but only one of those losses was a "bad" loss (Wizards). They are 6-2 this year in back-2-back situations, so I think they are experienced enough to handle this and respond, particularly against a team in Utah who is a defensive bottom feeder.

Thunder-105 Jazz-99

BigDofBA · 02-10-12, 02:57 PM

Originally posted by thebestthereis

The golden state late night home dog trying to be sharp bailout theory

Yeah, it seems like people lose a lot around here trying to be sharp.

I think they win but given the circumstances, 5 games in 7 days, I'm not betting it.

People should quit trying to outsmart the books. Vegas will gladly let you take the Jazz.

QuantumLeap · 02-10-12, 03:07 PM

Originally posted by BigDofBA

Yeah, it seems like people lose a lot around here trying to be sharp.

I think they win but given the circumstances, 5 games in 7 days, I'm not betting it.

People should quit trying to outsmart the books. Vegas will gladly let you take the Jazz.

They'll also gladly let you take OKC at an 83% clip while moving the line toward taking more money on OKC which is what is happening here. There's a reason the books make billions and this is one of them.

pro-style · 02-10-12, 03:12 PM

Originally posted by BigDofBA

Yeah, it seems like people lose a lot around here trying to be sharp.

I think they win but given the circumstances, 5 games in 7 days, I'm not betting it.

People should quit trying to outsmart the books. Vegas will gladly let you take the Jazz.

It's not about outsmarting the books, its about outsmarting everyone else.

Originally posted by QuantumLeap

They'll also gladly let you take OKC at an 83% clip while moving the line toward taking more money on OKC which is what is happening here. There's a reason the books make billions and this is one of them.

Books don't make billions lol...

PR9 · 02-10-12, 03:24 PM

For the trend lovers out there:

OKC played the Jazz twice in Utah last year on a 2nd game of a b2b. And OKC won both games convincingly.

Both games also went well over the total.

@ Utah - o/u was 206... OKC won 121-105
@ Utah - o/u was 208... OKC won 115-108

ps- Utah is also 3-1 o/u this year on 2+ days rest. And of course OKC's defense is playing like total garbage lately giving up 106 or more points in each of the last 4 games. Those things don't get corrected overnight on a b2b, usually you need a couple days off and some practice time to shore up a weak area on a team

Speedy88 · 02-10-12, 03:51 PM

Originally posted by QuantumLeap

They'll also gladly let you take OKC at an 83% clip while moving the line toward taking more money on OKC which is what is happening here. There's a reason the books make billions and this is one of them.

I think your onto something. But at the same time, you could have said the same about the OKC/GS game and look how that ended. Books aren't always right.

QuantumLeap · 02-10-12, 03:54 PM

Originally posted by Speedy88

I think your onto something. But at the same time, you could have said the same about the OKC/GS game and look how that ended. Books aren't always right.

Good point Speedy. In fact, when the public is hitting at 83% they don't even have to be right half the time in these games. They just have to be right better than 17% of the time if the money is coming in at 83%.

pro-style · 02-10-12, 03:56 PM

Originally posted by Speedy88

I think your onto something. But at the same time, you could have said the same about the OKC/GS game and look how that ended. Books aren't always right.

Seriously? No one expects a play to always hit. If OKC was -20 tonight who would argue that they would be a bad bet. I think everyone would be on Jazz +20. Now if OKC goes and wins by 22 does that mean they were a good bet? No. It just means that they won by 22. It's not about winning 90, 80, 70, or even 60 percent. It is about winning more often than you paid in the price for the bet.

EDIT: Also what do you mean the books weren't right. How do you even know they had a side on this game?

pro-style · 02-10-12, 03:57 PM

Originally posted by QuantumLeap

Good point Speedy. In fact, when the public is hitting at 83% they don't even have to be right half the time in these games. They just have to be right better than 17% of the time if the money is coming in at 83%.

What are you talking about? From what I could understand and assume, this is absurdly false.

QuantumLeap · 02-10-12, 05:02 PM

Originally posted by pro-style

What are you talking about? From what I could understand and assume, this is absurdly false.

Can you explain why you feel this may be absurdly false?

Les_Nuts · 02-10-12, 05:29 PM

It doesn't change my stance, I was planning a play on Utah, was hoping they won to get +2.5/3 but I am still confident playing the Jazz ML at evens

pro-style · 02-10-12, 05:29 PM

Originally posted by QuantumLeap

Can you explain why you feel this may be absurdly false?

What do you even mean by hitting 83%