Heat -13, is this a type of trap?

[cleaveland]

Do you think linesmakers/books operate like this:

Heat -13
Celtics -14

Do you think they want people to compare these two lines and think to themselves "The Heat are much better than the Celtics and the line is a whole point lower, so I'll take the Heat."

It's possible that a type of trap, what do you think?

[theone78]

i think the bobcats being a whole lot worse then cleveland has something to do with that.

[CertainValor]

I don't think there are traps. I don't think that an industry like book making would risk so much dime on something that is basically pop psychology. When you use math, solid game scouting and sharp line makers, why would they risk money against a process that already is proven to work for them (I'm certain that they're a, 'if it isn't broken, don't fix it' operation).

The Celtics are playing the Bobcats tomorrow and the Heat are playing the Cavaliers. The Cavaliers are better than the Bobcats. This doesn't mean the Cavs are good, or something, it means that the Bobcats are really, really bad. Also, the Heat have had some difficulty closing in the fourth.

The line makers are hypothesizing on the score of the game. They think the Heat win by 13, and the closer they get to that, the better for them. They don't want to "trap" or "trick" you into thinking one way or another. They want to be as close to correct as possible, because that is how they make the most money.

[KenMasta]

Bobcats is a worse team on the NBA, I think Clev +13 kindda too much?

[theone78]

accuall;y i think miami has more potential to blowout cleveland, dont forget the last time cleveland came to miami the game was close till the end and im sure the heat arent forgetting that. i see miami getting much seperation here this could get outta hand. im saying miami 102-85

[illAdelph]

I don't think there are traps. I don't think that an industry like book making would risk so much dime on something that is basically pop psychology. When you use math, solid game scouting and sharp line makers, why would they risk money against a process that already is proven to work for them (I'm certain that they're a, 'if it isn't broken, don't fix it' operation).

The Celtics are playing the Bobcats tomorrow and the Heat are playing the Cavaliers. The Cavaliers are better than the Bobcats. This doesn't mean the Cavs are good, or something, it means that the Bobcats are really, really bad. Also, the Heat have had some difficulty closing in the fourth.

The line makers are hypothesizing on the score of the game. They think the Heat win by 13, and the closer they get to that, the better for them. They don't want to "trap" or "trick" you into thinking one way or another. They want to be as close to correct as possible, because that is how they make the most money.

Take a sample size of 20 Vegas trap spreads.

To keep things simple, let's say each game has 1million on it.

14x trap works, majority of pub loses. Let's say on avg, 80% of $ was on pub in those games. Vegas profits $800,000 on each game. 14 x 8 = 112. ($11.2 million gained)

6x pub wins. 80% of bettors get paid. Vegas loses 800,000 per game. (4.8 million lost)

11.2 - 4.8= 6.4 million net profit.

In 20 games.

Juice hasn't been factored in, but you get it.

Vegas sets traps. They are bookies for one reason. To get paid.

If you are a multi-million dollar company, would you be satisfied netting $360 mil a year, when the company has potential to net $570 mil a year?

[illAdelph]

Take a sample size of 20 Vegas trap spreads.

To keep things simple, let's say each bet has 1million on it.

14x trap works, majority of pub loses. Let's say on avg, 80% of $ was on pub in those games. Vegas profits $800,000 on each game. 14 x 8 = 112. ($11.2 million gained)

6x pub wins. 80% of bettors get paid. Vegas loses 800,000 per game. (4.8 million lost)

11.2 - 4.8= 6.4 million net profit.

In 14 games.

Juice hasn't been factored in, but you get it.

Vegas sets traps. They are bookies for one reason. To get paid.

If you are a multi-million dollar company, would you be satisfied netting $360 mil a year, when the company has potential to net $570 mil a year?

That is only the mathematical explanation on how it works. If you place wagers on the NBA, you will eventually just learn through common sense when your "lock of the year" and "easiest bet ever" wagers leave you

[DonWon]

There's no such thing as a lock or a trap. Ideally Vegas wants an equal amount of people on either side. You people are crazy if you think otherwise. Make an educated guess and go with it. One side has to win.

[MagicDiceFlow]

There's no such thing as a lock or a trap. Ideally Vegas wants an equal amount of people on either side. You people are crazy if you think otherwise. Make an educated guess and go with it. One side has to win.

You're crazy dude ....Vegas makes peanuts on just the juice and there's no way in hell they get equal side betting on any every game other than the superbowl. The majority of book income comes from heavy lean on one side and the public calling the wrong side. If you think otherwise , you're a noobie to the game.

[migz]

You're crazy dude ....Vegas makes peanuts on just the juice and there's no way in hell they get equal side betting on any every game other than the superbowl. The majority of book income comes from heavy lean on one side and the public calling the wrong side. If you think otherwise , you're a noobie to the game.

One word = Greed.

[illAdelph]

9/10 games, Vegas does not get equal action. It is ideal, but rare.

"Books always shoot for equal action and make their money off juice" is the biggest myth in sportsbetting.

Anyone who refuses to acknowledge the fact that trap lines exist is a fool.

[illAdelph]

One word = Greed.

[MagicDiceFlow]

9/10 games, Vegas does not get equal action. It is ideal, but rare.

"Books always shoot for equal action and make their money off juice" is the biggest myth in sportsbetting.

Anyone who refuses to acknowledge the fact that trap lines exist is a fool.

Thank you.....I echo this sentiment.

[CertainValor]

Take a sample size of 20 Vegas trap spreads.

To keep things simple, let's say each game has 1million on it.

14x trap works, majority of pub loses. Let's say on avg, 80% of $ was on pub in those games. Vegas profits $800,000 on each game. 14 x 8 = 112. ($11.2 million gained)

6x pub wins. 80% of bettors get paid. Vegas loses 800,000 per game. (4.8 million lost)

11.2 - 4.8= 6.4 million net profit.

In 20 games.

Juice hasn't been factored in, but you get it.

Vegas sets traps. They are bookies for one reason. To get paid.

If you are a multi-million dollar company, would you be satisfied netting $360 mil a year, when the company has potential to net $570 mil a year?

I understand what you're saying, but I would need to see some sort of evidence to suggest that setting a trap works 70% of the time. I think the number is high, and there is a level at which the risk exceeds the potential. I think the actual number is somewhere closer to that risk/potential ratio than 70%.

But I could be wrong. I just need to some sort of evidence. Obviously, if someone tells you "you're going to make money on this 70% of the time", you'll take it.

[theone78]

so if they shoot for equal action how would it be a trap line ???????????????????????????????????????? ?

[theone78]

the way this nba is you cant even mak correct lines. nba is too unpredictable these days. players eanr too much money and dont come to play every night. think of haveing 10 gran on a game with the hawks and watching josh smith come down and start taking 22 footers and thrwoing up air balls cause he is lazy and dont feel like going to the basket these n*ggas make me sick !

[killersweet]

accuall;y i think miami has more potential to blowout cleveland, dont forget the last time cleveland came to miami the game was close till the end and im sure the heat arent forgetting that. i see miami getting much seperation here this could get outta hand. im saying miami 102-85

I put Cleveland and Toronto in the same tier of teams and Toronto hung in with Miami all the way to the end. In theory Heat should blow cavs out, but lately they have been playing close games.

[dudekid]

if there are no traps, why is there reverse line movement? why will vegas/books lower a line when 80% of the public is pounding it? if that doesnt spell trap, then i dont know what does

[theone78]

so what your saying is everyline they set they are saying lets trap people into this ???????????? lol yeah ok pal.... what does the guy that sets the lines have a crystal ball with all the winners and what is he on the publics mind and know what they wanna bet . please with this

[CertainValor]

if there are no traps, why is there reverse line movement? why will vegas/books lower a line when 80% of the public is pounding it? if that doesnt spell trap, then i dont know what does

Perhaps I'm misunderstanding what you're saying, but RLM is contingent upon the large bets of sharps, not necessarily trying to trick squares into the wrong side with an artificial line.

[theone78]

indy line went to 9 cause people are betting indy . its thats simple

[innovation]

LOL @ trap. Its all opinion and emtotionally driven just like the stock market. If there ever was a so called trap game then Atlanta last night would have to qualify but then again they are just playing bad ball right now like they did the last 2 games.

Its the reaction a line has on the majority that vegas is really good at. Years of experience helps them master the art of manipulation.

When you learn to bet without any emotion you are much better off. Just look at everyhting team like vanilla and find reasons why team A has a advantage over team B etc....

my 2 cents....

[CertainValor]

LOL @ trap. Its all opinion and emtotionally driven just like the stock market. If there ever was a so called trap game then Atlanta last night would have to qualify but then again they are just playing bad ball right now like they did the last 2 games.

Its the reaction a line has on the majority that vegas is really good at. Years of experience helps them master the art of manipulation.

When you learn to bet without any emotion you are much better off. Just look at everyhting team like vanilla and find reasons why team A has a advantage over team B etc....

my 2 cents....

I think I can get behind this point of view. There is probably some fallout that is effecting bookmakers when it comes to things like the bad goal-tending call in the OKC/Portland game.

[PR9]

There's no such thing as a lock or a trap. Ideally Vegas wants an equal amount of people on either side. You people are crazy if you think otherwise. Make an educated guess and go with it. One side has to win.

Well,, this will shut down your theory fukking quick:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/ncaa-basketball-betting/1537845-interesting-read-ku-oddsmakers-allen-fieldhouse.html#post13438059

Kornegay dispelled a myth about the goal of line-setters, which we all always have been told is to draw equal money on both teams. By doing so, the house would always profit because for the one placing the wager, winning $100 requires betting $110. “Our goal is to win more than we lose,” Kornegay said. “That’s what we try to do.

It’s rare that you have a game that you have equal action on both sides. Is that what the line’s supposed to do? Yeah. It rarely happens. I would say one out of 10 games we look at and say ‘It doesn’t matter who wins, we’re going to win (because there is roughly equal money on both sides).’”

The reaction to the seven-point spread didn’t surprise the oddsmakers.

“I would say most of the tickets were on Baylor, no doubt about it,” Kornegay said. “We heard them talking about it on the other side of the counter, and they were saying what we thought they would say, ‘Undefeated, ranked third. I can’t believe it. This doesn’t make sense.’”

The folks setting the lines have to take into consideration more than the average bettor’s anticipated reaction.
“We have to protect against the sharps,” Kornegay said.
The sharps?

“The professionals, the wise guys,” Kornegay said, meaning the hard-core, serious gamblers who come armed with research and a knack for picking games. “They have their opinions as well. Most of our lines are to keep those guys in check. Most of the money that comes in on a daily basis is from these types of players.”




Everybody should read that 10 times

[theone78]

once again, there is NO SUCH THING as trap lines wowwwww. vegas does not sit there saying umm what are we gonna make this line to sway people into betting. cause its not like they even have the wnner of the game so why would they wanna sway people into betting one way. they set a line to get even action, not saying thats whats gonna happen ! but that is there intention on every game , and thats the way they set lines wowww.

[YouHave2outs]

IThey don't want to "trap" or "trick" you into thinking one way or another.

but they don't mind if they do! more money for them!

yeah, they set accurate lines. but when the public pounds one side and they chuckle and leave the line the same, you should know vegas is gambling against the public because they think they have set an accurate line (or more often one that they even think should be a couple points lower)

[theone78]

perfect example lets say vegas loves okc tonight and they make the line okc -5 everyone wuld bet gs.... wouldnt you see more lines like this like bogus lines , if they wanna trap teh public into the other team ?

[theone78]

all nba lines are pretty legitimate to me. nothing to me is way off, everything is pretty much a sharp line when it opens. i eman do you ever see nba games more 3 points thats so rare

[CertainValor]

but they don't mind if they do! more money for them!

yeah, they set accurate lines. but when the public pounds one side and they chuckle and leave the line the same, you should know vegas is gambling against the public because they think they have set an accurate line (or more often one that they even think should be a couple points lower)

With this, I agree.

[theone78]

do you ever see nba game lines move more then 3 points ? thats what i meant to say

[theone78]

game lines never move more then 3 points and whats 3 points when you score anywahere from 90- 100 points a game ?

[innovation]

I disagree that OKC -5 would draw more action to GS. I think the line right now is. The sharps would look at past history and consider a b2b and say gee vegas is tippering their hand and pound OKC right now at -2.5 from -4 gives the sharps that level of uncertainity.

A bogus line according to who? Unless you make your on lines and even then we lack the intel vegas has.

I do make my own lines only to keep each team on a value that works for me throught the year.

[theone78]

if there were trap lines you would see game lines moving more then 3 points. vegas does not want 80 % on one side and 20 % on the other in every game . no way no how ! they dont want that cause then they are vunerable. if they wanted that then they may have well just close the sportsbooks and gamble themselves cause thats what its like doing

[pro-style]

game lines never move more then 3 points and whats 3 points when you score anywahere from 90- 100 points a game ?

Is this sarcasm?

[theone78]

no its not