NBA Sunday - Heat v Raptors

illAdelph · 02-05-12, 03:25 AM

Im trying hard to talk myself out of a 4 or 5 unit play on mia1h

Sport_Fish · 02-05-12, 03:46 AM

Yeah any single digit line for Miami 1H should be solid.

illAdelph · 02-05-12, 06:22 AM

Yessir

Speedy88 · 02-05-12, 06:23 AM

just play grizz and watch the superbowl.

ugabooga · 02-05-12, 06:36 AM

There' always a shock on these 2 game Sundays. Ima take Toronto SU

trollface.jpg

Speedy88 · 02-05-12, 06:38 AM

I just don't bet on the Heat when they have no reason to get up for the game. Heat are only good to back in big games. Heat could probably care less about this game, I'm hearing that LeBron may not play because he is going to be at a superbowl party.

Big Bear · 02-05-12, 07:33 AM

speedy do u like memphis ML and is that game on tv?

GamblerSpirit · 02-05-12, 07:36 AM

-16.5

PR9 · 02-05-12, 07:47 AM

Probably because the last time they played a real shitty team at home on sunday afternoon they won by 40

PR9 · 02-05-12, 09:00 AM

Originally posted by Sport_Fish

Largest spread so far this season, and there is a good reason for it.

Maybe because Vegas feels its going to be a Sunday afternoon whitewashing at home, like they had on the road in Philly after the team meeting

Page not found – Sun Sentinel

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/miami-heat/sfl-miami-heat-lebron-james-s020512,0,1710926.story

In the wake of Wednesday's troubling 105-97 road loss to the Milwaukee Bucks, when they blew an 18-point lead, the Heat went to school in Philadelphia, first with an intense team meeting Thursday at the Philadelphia 76ers' training facility at the Philadelphia College

Before walking the walk, the Heat talked the talk at the Thursday meeting.

"It was no-holds barred, no tongues being held," forward LeBron James said. "If we're going to be held to a championship standard, we need to go out and play like it. No one can take things personal if someone says something to him. We've got to take constructive criticism."

And take it to heart, which they did against the 76ers, in making it nine victories in their last 11 games.

"Everybody was pure about it," Spoelstra said of the raw discussion. "Everybody's intention was to find a way to get better and correct some of the things that ailed us against Milwaukee. It was a long day and we improved."

To guard Dwyane Wade, it was necessary discourse.

"Every team, especially good teams, you have to sit and reflect and see what you can do better. It was a wake up day for us," he said of the Thursday session. "We came in and did what we talked about. The biggest thing was the lines of communication opening between players and coaches. It should be that way, but sometimes you get lost and there's a separation."

Against the 76ers, the Heat found their way, Their nine turnovers were their fewest since committing eight against the Washington Wizards on Feb. 25, 2011 and their fewest in a road game since committing seven at the Los Angeles Clippers on Jan. 12, 2011. In fact, in their last five victories, the Heat have averaged just 11.6 turnovers per game.

It was an efficient effort across the board, with season lows in personal fouls (12) and points allowed (79). The 79 points were the fewest since allowing 79 to the Raptors in the 2010-11 regular-season finale in Toronto.

cleaveland · 02-05-12, 10:09 AM

Originally posted by Big Bear

speedy do u like memphis ML and is that game on tv?

NBA TV and NBA TV seems to be almost as bad as ESPN, TNT etc. in terms of corruption and stuff but not quite as bad.

Big Bear · 02-05-12, 10:09 AM

yall like memphis +4 or heat -16 better?

Big Bear · 02-05-12, 10:10 AM

so if corruption happens that means memphis def the play.

almost everyone will be on the celtics here

Big Bear · 02-05-12, 10:11 AM

celtics are old and that noon game will probably be an empty stadium in boston since all the fans will be focused on the super bowl today and wont waste their time on the celtics

cleaveland · 02-05-12, 10:16 AM

Originally posted by Big Bear

so if corruption happens that means memphis def the play.

Not so fast, I read this on the ESPN board, I don't know if it's true yet "One bit of good news for C's fans is that one of their fans, Ken Mauer, is lead official..."

demens · 02-05-12, 11:21 AM

Originally posted by Sport_Fish

Largest spread so far this season, and there is a good reason for it. I fail to understand how Raptors will keep this one close, esp without their star, against a Heat team who (by all dimensions) currently appear to be on top form. Backdoor cover on these spreads is the only danger but like I said, I don't see Raptors being able to score while Miami will score at will pretty much all game. As for Miami choking late, I don't see it as as a possibility against this Raptors team.

Hope we see the same Miami team from Philly the other night. In which case this game will slip away from the Raptors very quickly.

Miami Heat -16.5

I was leaning towards Toronto in this one but just looked at some stats that have turned me off that play.

But here are a few reasons to stay away from the Heat as well.

Heat are 2-3 as DD fav this year.
Only 4-9 as -8 or better favs.
They were not all that great last year as DD favs either. 11-14
How about blow out wins enough to cover this spread this year. Heat have 5, but 4 of those are against good teams. SA, Philly (2x) and Indiana. Only 1 against a bad team Bobcats and that was after Heat almost lost to them in Charlotte a few games before.

Those stats tell me 2 things. 1. Heat are not very motivated to blow teams out, bad teams especially. and 2. even if they were they are getting super inflated lines that make it harder to cover.

Raptors on the other hand are 4-2 as a DD dog.

But what made me do the research in the 1st place is that Miami is facing Cleveland next. And that will be a look ahead spot for Miami for at least another year.

Now after looking at Toronto's last few games, blowouts vs Boston and Atl. I dont really want to touch them either.

It seems to me like there are more blow-outs this year then ever before, so i checked some more stats.

DD Favs are 31-27 this year (Not too crazy)
-12 or up Favs are 18-7 (thats more like it)

Maybe better to stay away.

Sport_Fish · 02-05-12, 11:33 AM

Originally posted by demens

I was leaning towards Toronto in this one but just looked at some stats that have turned me off that play.

But here are a few reasons to stay away from the Heat as well.

Heat are 2-3 as DD fav this year.
Only 4-9 as -8 or better favs.
They were not all that great last year as DD favs either. 11-14
How about blow out wins enough to cover this spread this year. Heat have 5, but 4 of those are against good teams. SA, Philly (2x) and Indiana. Only 1 against a bad team Bobcats and that was after Heat almost lost to them in Charlotte a few games before.

Those stats tell me 2 things. 1. Heat are not very motivated to blow teams out, bad teams especially. and 2. even if they were they are getting super inflated lines that make it harder to cover.

Raptors on the other hand are 4-2 as a DD dog.

But what made me do the research in the 1st place is that Miami is facing Cleveland next. And that will be a look ahead spot for Miami for at least another year.

Now after looking at Toronto's last few games, blowouts vs Boston and Atl. I dont really want to touch them either.

It seems to me like there are more blow-outs this year then ever before, so i checked some more stats.

DD Favs are 31-27 this year (Not too crazy)
-12 or up Favs are 18-7 (thats more like it)

Maybe better to stay away.

Interesting stats. It does appear to be a hard one to call - but I'm still rolling with Miami because I def see value there. And I think this play is def +EV in the long-run if u consider the huge mismatch between these two teams.

bureK · 02-05-12, 12:05 PM

miami doesnt give a fukk about this game.it's just another win

Sport_Fish · 02-05-12, 12:12 PM

Originally posted by bureK

miami doesnt give a fukk about this game.it's just another win

Very true, which means they're satisfied with just a win. On the other hand, I don't even think it'll take a 70% effort from them to blow out Raptors by 20+. So it will come down to weather Toronto gives up on the game or if Miami takes it easy late in game and allows a backdoor cover.

PR9 · 02-05-12, 12:17 PM

just bet on 1Q or 1H then

Mac4Lyfe · 02-05-12, 12:26 PM

Miami seems to always play down to other teams level. Small play on Toronto since it's an early game.

stacks101 · 02-05-12, 12:29 PM

The Heat are home and playing a game that they should win so I don't think the guys are really motivated for this one. Its a sunday and they might be a little sluggish in the first period and that is the reason I took raptors +5.5 for the first quarter.

Sport_Fish · 02-05-12, 02:23 PM

Lets go Heat step it fkn up! Just need them to play D for 6mins and this spread will cover. If not, no chance.