Trap lines do not exsist.... Write up on why inside !!!!!

[MoneyOnBball]

they do ignore the AP rankings. why in God's name would vegas care about the ap vote? they make their own rankings based on what they know. looking at the rankings only affects the public, who obviously have much less knowledge to base their decision on. you see a number next to one team and they are the underdog to an unranked. public eats it up almost every time

like that article said, the only bets they are really trying to split are the sharp ones

Yeah, but it's very hard to come up with your own rankings of every team in the league with no bench marks.

Lock yourself up in a basement one year, with no access to expert's opinion or anything like that. All you get to see are the game tapes. Would you be able to come up with a very good ranking system of every team in the league?. And if you could, why are you're rankings any better than the journalists who watch the same games you are watching?

And if you could do all of that, then it means you have an amazing ability to judge talent and evaluate basketball teams. So you would be able to work as a GM or scout or something...so then why would you stick around in Vegas instead of becoming a GM?

[BernardMadoff]

well today at least 60% is on one team in the nba in all 6 games. at least 70% is on a team in 3 or 4. vegas just did not do their job at all today i suppose. you should read the article posted earlier in the thread if you think their goal is to get equal money on both sides.

I read that article weeks ago and nothing is in it that I didn't know already, you're also assuming the percentages you're given are correct and don't know 100% if they are, I've seen thousands of games tracked where the side was picked solely on RLM and not shockingly the winning percentage was right at 50%.

[illAdelph]

Yeah, but it's very hard to come up with your own rankings of every team in the league with no bench marks.

Lock yourself up in a basement one year, with no access to expert's opinion or anything like that. All you get to see are the game tapes. Would you be able to come up with a very good ranking system of every team in the league?. And if you could, why are you're rankings any better than the journalistswho watch the same games you are watching?

And if you could do all of that, then it means you have an amazing ability to judge talent and evaluate basketball teams. So you would be able to work as a GM or scout or something...so then why would you stick around in Vegas instead of becoming a GM?

They are there for the media to eat up. It adds an element of discussion.

[YouHave2outs]

I read that article weeks ago and nothing is in it that I didn't know already, you're also assuming the percentages you're given are correct and don't know 100% if they are, I've seen thousands of games tracked where the side was picked solely on RLM and not shockingly the winning percentage was right at 50%.

don't bet 8+ dogs on the road simply based on RLM, and it eliminates a lot of the losses i feel like. i have no clue though what the stats are, i'm really new to even thinking about sports betting seriously. learning a lot around here though i think.

[YouHave2outs]

So you would be able to work as a GM or scout or something...so then why would you stick around in Vegas instead of becoming a GM?

because you are a degenerate gambler, and you are one of the best in the world.

[Bones33]

They probably figure a bulls -9 line public would still hammer...as someone else mentioned before, why not set it lower, have public go heavy on bulls...and hope melo/stat go off...knicks seem to get up for big games...they beat the celts and hung with the heat for a while earlier in the season

[BernardMadoff]

don't bet 8+ dogs on the road simply based on RLM, and it eliminates a lot of the losses i feel like. i have no clue though what the stats are, i'm really new to even thinking about sports betting seriously. learning a lot around here though i think.

Cool, its good discussion, we need more good dialouge frequently on here, glad tonite bro.

[MoneyOnBball]

They are there for the media to eat up. It adds an element of discussion.

So they intentionally get them wrong just so that we would discuss things more? If so, then how do they know we wouldn't discuss the true rankings more?

All I'm saying is that human beings are the ones ranking the teams in the AP poll. And I think they try to get it correct. And human beings are the vegas odds makers. So why would the vegas odds makers be so much better at evaluating teams?

[Patrickz0rs]

Let me ask all the people who think trap lines exist: Why do you gamble on sports if you believe you're at an unfair advantage? If you believe in games being 'fixed' -- then why do you bet?

[illAdelph]

So they intentionally get them wrong just so that we would discuss things more? If so, then how do they know we wouldn't discuss the true rankings more?

All I'm saying is that human beings are the ones ranking the teams in the AP poll. And I think they try to get it correct. And human beings are the vegas odds makers. So why would the vegas odds makers be so much better at evaluating teams?

I would not say one is better than the other, as their jobs are not the same.

The motivation for each party is 100% different. They are not attempting to accomplish the same thing.

Who's to say one is more intelligent than the other? Oddsmakers have never created the polls, nor have the pollmakers created odds.

[Speedy88]

Since we are already on this subject, do you guys think bookies or people who work for the books come on SBR and give bad picks to try to sway the public to the wrong side? Sorry if this is a stupid question.

[YouHave2outs]

So they intentionally get them wrong just so that we would discuss things more? If so, then how do they know we wouldn't discuss the true rankings more? All I'm saying is that human beings are the ones ranking the teams in the AP poll. And I think they try to get it correct. And human beings are the vegas odds makers. So why would the vegas odds makers be so much better at evaluating teams?

it should be obvious why vegas bookmakers can rank the teams better than AP pollsters. i do not see how it could not be obvious.

[YouHave2outs]

Since we are already on this subject, do you guys think bookies or people who work for the books come on SBR and give bad picks to try to sway the public to the wrong side? Sorry if this is a stupid question.

have thought about this very briefly and came to the swift conclusion that it is not happening. i just do not think there is enough tail betting money on sbr to make a difference in any way to them.

[monologue]

Let me ask all the people who think trap lines exist: Why do you gamble on sports if you believe you're at an unfair advantage? If you believe in games being 'fixed' -- then why do you bet?

Because only if u r able to differentiate them, its easy money

[Speedy88]

have thought about this very briefly and came to the swift conclusion that it is not happening. i just do not think there is enough tail betting money on sbr to make a difference in any way to them.

That's what I was thinking as well.

[theone78]

whats that guy thats watching valpo vs brown get to sit and watch the game 6 bucks an hr lmao! you really think they have guys watcvhing all these dead meaningless games to make lines your on drugs...

[theone78]

there may not even be 6 bucks wagered on the 2nd half of that game... but they are gonna pay someone to watch it lol ok buddy

[theone78]

this is a dead economy there this isnt a billion dollar industry anymore you guys are probably betting 25 bucks a game and you thinhk your a f*cking nba scientist

[theone78]

im sure vegas is paying people to watch games to make lines.. like you think they are accually watching brown vs iona a dead game like that. where the benchs in the stands are like cafeteria benches lol ok pal.... and now tell me how you apply for that job ?

[YouHave2outs]

^^ hope you're drunk

[BigDofBA]

This thread is kind of correct.

I think a lot of posters on this board think Vegas actually plays the games. Vegas doesn't know what will happen but they have people that set these lines that are way more knowledgeable than you and I.

Even when a team looks like easy money, there are still a ton of people that take the other side. Vegas still makes money because of the juice.

It's really just simple math that beats 95% of sports bettors. It's hard to beat the juice regardless of how sharp the line is. Sometimes the lines are spot on and sometimes they aren't. Vegas isn't sure who will cover they just want your action. The more bets the books take the more money they make. It's pretty simple.

Very few people have the discipline to only play games in which they might have a small advantage. Betting 6-10 games a day will slowly beat you overtime. At some point you will go broke or you will chase with a large than normal bet.

With all of this side, in some cases Vegas does take a side while the public is pounding the opposite side. Vegas seems to win these types of games more than they lose.

[illAdelph]

this is a dead economy there this isnt a billion dollar industry anymore you guys are probably betting 25 bucks a game and you thinhk your a f*cking nba scientist

Kids clueless.

[MoneyOnBball]

this is a dead economy there this isnt a billion dollar industry anymore you guys are probably betting 25 bucks a game and you thinhk your a f*cking nba scientist

Yes, it's a slumping economy. But that doesn't mean it's not a billion dollar industry anymore. That just means that now it's a 4.4 billion dollar industry instead of a 5.2 billion dollar industry (i just made these numbers up out of no where, so don't go crazy because i'm off by a little bit).

[BigDofBA]

Since we are already on this subject, do you guys think bookies or people who work for the books come on SBR and give bad picks to try to sway the public to the wrong side? Sorry if this is a stupid question.

That's not a stupid question. At one time I actually thought that because some guys on here lose at such an incredible rate,.

That being said, these guys are just clueless. I can't believe some people actually bet their money on games and they have no clue what they are doing. At least know a couple of players on the team!

[monologue]

see, memphis is doing better job than the Hawks. If memphis takes this game, its what you call trap games...

[MoneyOnBball]

see, memphis is doing better job than the Hawks. If memphis takes this game, its what you call trap games...

Yeah true.

But I still don't understand what inside knowledge the odds makers would have had to know that Memphis would have done well that we would not have been able to have (unless you think that a player or ref is rigging the game for Vegas).

[YouHave2outs]

I still don't understand what inside knowledge the odds makers would have had (unless you think that a player or ref is rigging the game for Vegas).

this hurts your bankroll probably

[shocktopme]

.

I agree...You ask any real capper and they will say trap??what trap.....You either like it or you dont!!!That simple.......

[MrXYZ]

Vegas don't have to set traps because long term everyone(or just about) is doomed. I like what BigDofBA said, it's simple maths that beats them. On a spread bet at -110 the house edge is 4.76%. After 1000 NBA bets & 1000 hands of blackjack the outcome is the same, the gambler loses the more he plays & vice versa for the book/casino.

And there's something else, the big profits reaped from guys chasing losses.

[MoneyOnBball]

this hurts your bankroll probably

I can't really say yet, I'm new to this.

[suicidekings]

Of course the books lean on some games, but I think it's far less frequent than people think... The other point to raise is that the same conspiracy theorists that identify "traps" almost daily are the same people trying to be sharp with "the books WANT you on the _____ tonight" crap and bet against good teams in the name of being Contrarian.

Ask yourself for a moment... Who do you think the books would prefer to take money away from if given the chance? The public clowns that beat themselves over time? Or the smarter cappers that are capable of taking money away from the books? The claims that the public are all over a team should definitely raise red flags with you, but if your first thought is "go against the public", it's not going to be pretty for you by the end of the season. No one ever wants to admit to being a part of the "Public"

[moneymaker09]

ok , if vegas wanted to trap people and sway them to bet one certain way more then they are vunerable to lose money and they DON NOT WANT THAT AT ALL ! they set lines just to even out the action... every 1,000 dollars bet vegas makes 100 dollar on that and thats all they care about... for instance in the super bowl n.e. - 2 1/2 vegas wants 1,000,000,000 bet on the giants and 1,000,000,000 bet on the pats so they pocket the gaurenteed 100,000 if they make trap lines and try to get bets one way they vegas mine as well close down there sports books and go gamble themselves ! this is why there are not " trap lines" hopefully this solves this million dollar question

get out of here. you're retarded..... everyday there's a trap game like today denver/clippers pk.. obviously it shoulda been like clippers -6

[YouHave2outs]

Of course the books lean on some games, but I think it's far less frequent than people think... The other point to raise is that the same conspiracy theorists that identify "traps" almost daily are the same people trying to be sharp with "the books WANT you on the _____ tonight" crap and bet against good teams in the name of being Contrarian. Ask yourself for a moment... Who do you think the books would prefer to take money away from if given the chance? The public clowns that beat themselves over time? Or the smarter cappers that are capable of taking money away from the books? The claims that the public are all over a team should definitely raise red flags with you, but if your first thought is "go against the public", it's not going to be pretty for you by the end of the season. No one ever wants to admit to being a part of the "Public"

why do people that take themselves serious use the rofl laughing icon, it's clearly condescending and absurd in a legitimate discussion, especially when your opinion also seems reasonably up for debate...guess that's again my opinion

[BernardMadoff]

get out of here. you're retarded..... everyday there's a trap game like today denver/clippers pk.. obviously it shoulda been like clippers -6

Ha.

[YouHave2outs]

ghahahahahahaahhaahahhahaahahahahahahaha hah at vegas trying to get equal on both sides. THEY FKNG CLEANED AGAIN!!!!!!!!!!!! WHY WOULDN'T THEY TAKE THESE RISKS!

another lesson for all those who think vegas are trying to get equal on both sides, im just an intelligent person. very very very new to sportsbetting, and this sht is so fkng obvious that they don't care about equal on both sides