Trap games tomorrow? unless vegas is crazy to feed us free cash?

smarotta09 · 02-02-12, 04:15 AM

The only thing I can see is Portland is on a B2B and they are garbage onthe road ... Still can't figure out why they are only -3 ... I think I might just take this tomorrow

monologue · 02-02-12, 04:18 AM

right, they are garbage on the road. I dont think b2b is big factor here but still the line is very suspicious. I have feeling at least 2 of those games above will upset the public. . .

smarotta09 · 02-02-12, 04:23 AM

I don't like the Memphis/Atlanta game .. Memphis had that huge comeback against Denver and I just dont trust Atlanta.. Like the clips too at home .. Butler playing?

N88 · 02-02-12, 04:25 AM

guys..dont over think memp@atl...

ex: atl@hornets+2.5
atl@toronto+5

im leaning towards atl

smarotta09 · 02-02-12, 04:31 AM

You can't compare memphis to Toronto/new Orleans

N88 · 02-02-12, 04:38 AM

memphis is a good team, i agree with that. but for me its either atl or no play. too much variance in memphis i feel like lol

PS3 · 02-02-12, 04:46 AM

por@sac averages a line of ~-3.375. during the last 4 meetings in arco.
i know that these are past lines but these are things that I think we should factor in.
i'm leaning POR here. BUT, just like several guys here, i think the line is kinda suspicious given how bad sac is playing right now.

to add: i feel that the L streak of Sac town will be broken vs. GSW.
a little biased for a Blazers fan here

ALSO, negating my stand (in a way)
we've seen POR lost to teams such as PISTONS and SUNS on the back end of a back to back. another one to factor in.
some crazy TNT Thursday shit coming. IMO

dilojanj · 02-02-12, 05:43 AM

IMO memphis is one of the dangerous team to put your money on/against like orlando, boston, houston, spurs coz there is aways somehthing weird going on in the second half !! So I wouldnt do it. I might take Memphis first half total under or first half handicap for atlanta..

Portland match depends on starters' rhythm tomorrow. when is Batum coming back ? if he comes back i might take protland handicap for first half as soon as the starters rested in the 1st q. Portland bench is much better than sacrementos.

Clippers are playing back to back and denver had time to rest. But clippers have the home court. I will go with denver total being over on the second half .
just my thoughts

ugabooga · 02-02-12, 05:47 AM

Both seem too good to be true, Atlanta especially. Not touching either of them because these fishy lines of late haven't burnt us. I think tomorrow is the day.

innn · 02-02-12, 05:53 AM

for me denver is the the only play

H1Cypher · 02-02-12, 06:27 AM

Feed us free cash implies people are betting the same stupid direction you are. Da ****.

riskyProps · 02-02-12, 06:36 AM

Both Atlanta and Sacramento are back home after a long trip on the road. I'm prepared to fade these 2 teams on that reason alone.

However, the Grizzlies just got their 1st win in a while so they may have their confidence back and they are much better than the Craptors or Hornets.

Sacramento is just terrible while they have the talent to be Portland, they just don't play as a team. The Queens will make a good bet for 1Q and 1H since they love to get off to a quick start.

The Clippers squeezed out a win (but not ATS) against the Jazz and now have to face a very good Denver team. If Caron Butler is out, they may not have enough weapons to win this time as I feel that fatigue may be setting it. The only good thing is that the Clippers is at home where they play like crazy and their road trip was brief.

I'm just leaning this way so far but it's late and I need sleep and I might be changing my mind LOL!

monologue · 02-02-12, 07:17 AM

I enjoy betting on the kings when they face decent teams at home, they had long road trip but isnt portlant just so shit at away games?
My mind got fxxked up after posting this thread...
I want to hear ideas from more guys about these games..

agendaman · 02-02-12, 09:01 AM

mono/forgetting your games for a moment/i am looking seriously at warriors -4.5 vs. utah/why well utah had tough slose game vs. clips. gsw had last nite off their guy brandon rush hits 60 per cent of 3pt. fg. attempts/your thoughts

cmle123 · 02-02-12, 11:33 AM

first there no such thing as trap game. vegas make these line to best of knowledge to get 50/50 money. i liked the hornet tonight. seem pretty good play. spurs without their two super star and give crap load of points

monologue · 02-02-12, 12:03 PM

Originally posted by cmle123

first there no such thing as trap game. vegas make these line to best of knowledge to get 50/50 money. i liked the hornet tonight. seem pretty good play. spurs without their two super star and give crap load of points

indeed there are trap bets...
I dont want to offense u so i guess u are new to capping.
There is interview of someone who works in vegas related to sportbooking and he admitted it.
I made a big bets on mem sac and den tonight. Im expecting 3-0 but i'd be happy to hit 2-1 at least...
anyway its just my opinion and i wish everyone makes money tonight

cmle123 · 02-02-12, 12:13 PM

if u think there such thing as trap then bet opposite what u think is trap. these sportbooking said what ever they want and not all of is true. if u consider trap in ur mind it just make harder for you make good bet and more stress over about the bet

tokio · 02-02-12, 12:15 PM

port at -3 is a little weary.

monologue · 02-02-12, 12:17 PM

Originally posted by cmle123

if u think there such thing as trap then bet opposite what u think is trap. these sportbooking said what ever they want and not all of is true. if u consider trap in ur mind it just make harder for you make good bet and more stress over about the bet

no man, I know how to control my mind. I cant see memphis winning this +4 or +3.5 against hawks but I made a big bet on memphis. My heart tells me to pick Hawks but I picked Grizzlies because I see this one as the most suspicious looking game.

keel44 · 02-02-12, 12:31 PM

Generally speaking, I think Atlanta is a little better than Memphis. Atlanta at home is even a little more better. -4 seems to be just right. If this were in Memphis, Memphis should be favored -2.

It all depends whether you think Atlanta will be a slouch tonight. I think they will.

riffraff24 · 02-02-12, 01:22 PM

Or maybe they're trapping you by making you think it's a trap? OKC beat Mavs yesterday and they opened +2 remember?

monologue · 02-02-12, 01:25 PM

Originally posted by riffraff24

Or maybe they're trapping you by making you think it's a trap? OKC beat Mavs yesterday and they opened +2 remember?

And it headed to PK by tipoff and okc won. U r confused mate.

riffraff24 · 02-02-12, 01:31 PM

No I'm not. When the line came out I posted that I liked OKC +2. I got about 10 responses of everyone calling it too easy and a trap game. And yes by tip it moved. Are we at tip time for any of the above mentioned games?

Who's confused wanker?

Speedy88 · 02-02-12, 01:53 PM

Originally posted by riffraff24

No I'm not. When the line came out I posted that I liked OKC +2. I got about 10 responses of everyone calling it too easy and a trap game. And yes by tip it moved. Are we at tip time for any of the above mentioned games? Who's confused wanker?

But that's a totally different story, that was before anyone knew Odom and Haywood would be out. Everyone was on Mavs until they heard about those 2 guys being out. So you can't really compare that situation to this one.

Anyways, I woke up today, and noticed that nearly every game today has what you could call some RLM or odd line movement.

Looky here:

- 70% of public on ATL, line opens at ATL -4.5 and is now down to -4
- 80% of the public on CHI, line opens at CHI -3.5, yet it hasn't moved even with 80% on CHI.
- 64% of public on SA, line opens at SA -9.5 and line is now down to SA -9
- 72% of public on POR, line opens at POR -4 and line is now down to POR -3.5
- 72% of public on LAC, line opens at LAC -2 and line is now down to LAC -1
- 72% of public on UTA, line opens at GS -4.5 and line is now up to GS -5

Be very careful with your picks boys, looks like Vegas is trying to make a killing today.

riskyProps · 02-02-12, 01:53 PM

Originally posted by riffraff24

No I'm not. When the line came out I posted that I liked OKC +2. I got about 10 responses of everyone calling it too easy and a trap game. And yes by tip it moved. Are we at tip time for any of the above mentioned games?

Who's confused wanker?

If I had known that Odom and Haywood was out, I would have been on OKC as well. But that's what happens when you don’t do the homework.

I agree that the books try to open the line as fair as possible as the would rather make money off the juice.

ksnooksk · 02-02-12, 01:57 PM

Originally posted by riskyProps

If I had known that Odom and Haywood was out, I would have been on OKC as well. But that's what happens when you don’t do the homework. I agree that the books try to open the line as fair as possible as the would rather make money off the juice.

No necessarily...they open the lines trying to avoid the sharps or the whales..whatever you want to call them. They know what the public is going to bet on. They just dont know what the big guys are going to.

Rockets2200 · 02-02-12, 01:57 PM

Originally posted by Speedy88

But that's a totally different story, that was before anyone knew Odom and Haywood would be out. Everyone was on Mavs until they heard about those 2 guys being out. So you can't really compare that situation to this one.

Anyways, I woke up today, and noticed that nearly every game today has what you could call some RLM or odd line movement.

Looky here:

- 70% of public on ATL, line opens at ATL -4.5 and is now down to -4
- 80% of the public on CHI, line opens at CHI -3.5, yet it hasn't moved even with 80% on CHI.
- 64% of public on SA, line opens at SA -9.5 and line is now down to SA -9
- 72% of public on POR, line opens at POR -4 and line is now down to POR -3.5
- 72% of public on LAC, line opens at LAC -2 and line is now down to LAC -1
- 72% of public on UTA, line opens at GS -4.5 and line is now up to GS -5

Be very careful with your picks boys, looks like Vegas is trying to make a killing today.

the % doesn't mean total amount of $ smart one.

it's just % of people who bet......books care about total $ bet....thus their "profits". such morons on here..its beyond ridiculous

Speedy88 · 02-02-12, 02:01 PM

Originally posted by Rockets2200

the % doesn't mean total amount of $ smart one. it's just % of people who bet......books care about total $ bet....thus their "profits". such morons on here..its beyond ridiculous

Very true, but c'mon man, do you honestly think that their is more money on Sac/NO/GS/NYK/DEN than their opponents? You really think that the 28% on Sac outweighs the 72% on POR? It could be possible, but very unlikely. There are not any sites that show total money, so it is up to us to infer that when 80% of the public is on one team, that usually means that most the money is on them.

monologue · 02-02-12, 02:12 PM

When the % goes beyond 70%, it is very unlikely to expect the 30%'s amount of money is greater than 70%. I say it is almost impossible.

m11chen · 02-02-12, 02:15 PM

This is the same dude that said hawks / hornets was a trap. Take the hawks and don't get psyched out. Is it a lock? Of course not, but I wouldn't want to be on the other side of that bet. Hawks or no play. Sure there are traps would be naive to think otherwise but this dude thinks ever other game is a trap LOL.

Eg: nuggets -6 at home. 7 point swing to swap home courts means clips -1. Add 0.5 or 1 for recent clipper success. How does that not make sense.

YouHave2outs · 02-02-12, 02:16 PM

Originally posted by Rockets2200

the % doesn't mean total amount of $ smart one. it's just % of people who bet......books care about total $ bet....thus their "profits". such morons on here..its beyond ridiculous

lol @ you thinking speedy wasn't fully aware of everything you said in this post when he made his. if the money is equal on both sides, that would mean that bets on the smaller % side average 3-4x larger (75/25, 80/20). sharp money or whales? could be either, but more likely that sharps are betting this large against the public fave if indeed there is equal money on both sides.

N88 · 02-02-12, 03:04 PM

point spread is based on public perception. atl isnt a flashy team as memphis...

Speedy88 · 02-02-12, 06:07 PM

Originally posted by monologue

When the % goes beyond 70%, it is very unlikely to expect the 30%'s amount of money is greater than 70%. I say it is almost impossible.

What he said ^^^

There is no way that the 30% could outweigh the 70% unless Bill Gates and all the other CEO's of America are on the 30%.