Anyone taking the Grizzlies tonight? Everyone seems to be POUNDING Denver, yet the line goes the other way? 
I'm on Memphis tonight going against the public. BOL.
I'm on Memphis tonight going against the public. BOL.
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The line is all over the place in this one, it seems to be going either way and the O/U is up and down as well.Comment -
me on MEM+1.5
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Memphis: 36-14 at home over the last 2 seasons.
everyone and their brother was on the knicks just 10 days ago when they entertained this exact same nuggets team. Game went to OT.
Knicks: 26-26 at home over the last 2 seasons.
Now everyone and their brother is on the nuggets in Memphis.
funny it's the same point spread for both games. With one team who is clearly a superior home team than the other.Comment -
Poor game by memphis last night, this happens a lot in the first game home after long road trip though when teams are sluggish. Don't see Gasol/Gay/Conley shooting just 8-32 again tonight.
In the Final Quarter however Memphis did step up a bit, found their legs and brushed off some of that sluggishness, played very good D and outscored the Spurs by 10 -- 23-13
Memphis was just 2 pts down vs a very hot clippers team on the road with just 1 minute left (score 91-89 with 1:00 left). Denver just lost at home to that clippers team too.Comment -
Nuggets -1
Superior team. Have shown numerous times they can go into a road game against a good team and take care of business. Grizzlies are in a slump. Nugs want to get back on track after a close loss to a Western power. They do so tonight.Comment -
"numerous times" ?
Who have the nuggets beaten on the road besides barely beating a Sixers team (who were without Hawes) , it was the first game the Sixers were without Hawes (needing to adjust) who is a very key player to their team.
nuggets lost @ San antonio, @ portland, and @ the pathetic lakers
Look, I like the nuggets, am slightly ahead when betting on or against them. But let's not act like they're these proven road warriors and road juggernauts. They have thrown some stinker games this year too.Comment -
The Bucks, who are quite good and versatile, esp. at home.
That wasn't Hawes' first missed game of the season, BTW. Spurs and Portland are great at home.
I agree, I expect the Nuggs to win but not clobber the Grizz, I think they win by 5-7.
From the other thread...
DENVER Vs. MEMPHIS --- BY THE NUMBERS
--- Denver has won 5 straight road games. A victory tonight would be a W6 on the road for the first time since 1988.
--- A win tonight would set a new Denver franchise record for wins in a month with 13.
--- Denver has won 8 or 9 games.
--- A bad 4th quarter on the road to one of the NBA's top teams blew their lead and the game. They want to avenge that.
--- Nuggets are the #2 West team. They got beat by the team (Clippers) that dismantled the #1 (Thunder) the next night. The Clippers could arguably be #1 if they were healthy all this time.
--- Denver is scoring 112 ppg during its last 5 road games.
--- The return of Ty Lawson means the slumping Aaron Afflalo can GTFO. Better defensive match-up for Denver too.
--- Grizzlies are averaging 83 ppg during their last 4 games.
--- Nuggets have won 14 of 17 all-time.
We'll see.
Who's with me?
GO NUGGS!Comment -
The line isn't going the other way. Opened at Memphis -1 and now it's +1.Comment -
BOL Mac. I was just confused when you alluded to the Grizz being a mediocre home team in the NBA picks thread. They have been a good team at home going 6-3 this year and 30-11 last year ( 2 of their home losses this year were to OKC - by 3 pts and 5).
one big, BIG, advantage for denver in this matchup is their bench. One thing that you have to look out for is when a very key player returns into the lineup on the road, generally they don't cover. but GLComment -
It wasn't so much that I think they're bad, it's just that they're unproven. Throw out the Bulls game (no Rose) and you have a win against the Rockets well before the Rockets hit their stride. I don't know that they can keep up with the Nuggs' scorers.
I tend to agree with this, but the guy he is replacing has been a detriment to the Nuggets over the past couple games (like..5 points combined?).One thing that you have to look out for is when a very key player returns into the lineup on the road, generally they don't cover. but GLComment -
you shouldn't go by NBA.com game previews because they're writers are wrong a lot of the time. It's been a comedy show over there in recent years to be quite honest. Not only is Afflalo not starting for Lawson or "replacing" him, but Afflalo is averaging 29 minutes per game this season but actually only averaged 20 mins in the last 2 games:
Miller replaces Lawson as the starting point guard, not Afflalo. Miller had 16 pts and 10 assists vs the clips and played 36 mins. He played almost 40 against toronto.
Afflalo is a natural SG, not a PG and brings a lot to the table aside from scoring. He is one of the best defenders at his position in the NBA (in fact led the NBA for lowest FG% against M2M for 2 seasons), and one of the best "wing" defenders you will find, and does other positive things on the court. A player isn't all about just scoring. And denver is such a deep scoring team that they need guys like Afflalo that do other things very well to round out "a team"Comment -
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I have to say Denver here, no doubt.Comment -
Just like Portland last night. From +1 to -1 and even -1.5
Won't play it but I think Girzz take this oneComment -
He is replacing him in the starting lineup, as I said. I never said by position.Not only is Afflalo not starting for Lawson or "replacing" him,
My point was, he can only help the offense. It's not like starters were getting some push from Afflalo.
I've also watched 3 Nuggs games and liked what I saw. They're among the 4 best West teams, IMO, that being the Clippers (#1), Thunder (#2), Nuggets (#3), and Dallas (#4...although they can be streaky). I've also caught 4 Grizz games and know they can play teams tough but generally fall behind late against high-octane offenses, or teams that play that style in some cases (such as Portland at the Rose Garden).
I did use the NBA writeup for the numbers, though, because they're just numbers and devoid of opinion.Comment -
bleek88 is upset because he started two "OKC ALL THE WAY, TRUST ME" threads, which both lost badly, and then stated "LOL I didnt bet on them LOL" and got ridiculed, so he's trolling here.
He doesn't generally have a case to fade me. I've kept my 18-13-1 record updated daily, he refuses to keep one.
Don't feed the troll, I've reported him (and got it before your edit, too, buddy).Comment -
He wasn't "replacing" Lawson, or his minutes. Afflalo was playing 10 LESS minutes per game with lawson out over the past 2 games. He was not taking any responsibility away from Lawson's matchups (if he played). The guy who replaced Lawson and his minutes was Miller.
Again, you just went by "scoring" and what nba.com writers told you, and you fell for it.
ps- Memphis also has their Afflalo winger, his name is Tony Allen. If you watched any of Boston's last 2 NBA Final runs you'd understand how instrumental these players really are - aside from just "scoring". And Boston hasn't been the same since in that regard after losing Allen.
a little Basketball 101.Comment -
Tonight's key IS scoring. Memphis fails to defeat high-powered offenses. That was what was most important to me.
"Fell for it?"
I made the bet before even reading the preview. And I only read it to get some "numbers" to throw into a thread to get some discussion, an act I 100% swear by. I think the Denver team that played LAC on Sunday would beat Memphis by 5 on the road, so the article did little to "sway" me or anything.
Relax.
My key to betting generally revolves around establishing my initial self-line before I see it, then watching the actual line and checking public percentage, then reading facts by trusted friends online and trusted people I don't know on forums who have a positive track record.Comment -
fell for it in the sense of what you posted was false info. Their implication was wrong. I didn't say the bet.
again, good luck w/ your bet. But just keep in mind that NBA.com writers have been known for making many egregious errors, one can find them daily. Just like that one.Comment -
Thanks, GL to you too tonight. I really did just post the "facts and figure" from the first source I could find for some discussion, it didn't really influence the bet (which I cast at like 10 am, like an hour before getting to work and getting the NBA.com stats from the preview.)Comment -
The Grizz just dont have enough fire power to stay with the Nuggets. I would love for them to win but there star player rather be passive and just not attack. Grizz have 4 guys who can score Nuggets have like 6. They couldn't even beats the Suns. Don't see how they can win this.
One thing that does scare me is Gay only.scored 1 point last night so he could come out firing but he has been playing really bad a been turing over the ball a lot.Comment -
If Gay is touching a lot of balls and getting lots of looks, it could hurt the Denver game plan which seems to always be -- score early and often and build leads against overmatched offenses, then hold on and grind out.Comment -
Memphis feasts off of turnovers, that's how they win their games. Up until a couple games ago they led the league in creating turnovers (or were 2nd in the NBA for turnovers). You saw how discombobulated the Clippers offense was against memphis in that game as the Clips just could not get into any sort of rhythm offensively with all their turnovers and wasted possessions caused by the Grizzlies.
With Lawson back manning the point, denver backers better not hope he's rusty because memphis can be an excellent defensive team when they decide to play with effort, discombobulating offenses getting teams off their rhythm, and can force many turnovers in a very short period of time -- and all of a sudden you realize you're in a buzzsaw of a game.
i think this is a national tv game tonight ?? If so, the grizzlies could bring that effort
when playing the Grizzlies, especially in Memphis, the #1 priority is taking very good care of the ball. Better handle the ball extremely well with crisp passingComment -
PR9, i think u dont have to waste ur time on that guy. He is squared.Comment -
i don't have anything against him. And I don't have a bet on this game right now. This is an excellent spot for memphis, the "spot" really favors them, but clearly the fresher team with more options is denver
gasol looked gassed the last couple of games. He's not the most stout or strongest guy out there, and people don't realize what an immense toll playing the center position every night does to one's body with the banging and bruising in there. It's nothing like the power forward position, not even close. The PF is a lot easier on the body. But the center position is an incredible grind and that's why there's so few really good centers today
it's been taking a toll on gasol lately, that's why so many of his shots come short of the rim the past few games. Without Randolph in there to take some of the burden away., it could effect their team going forward as they rely on gasol to do alot for them (both offensively and defensively). He is being "overstretched" asked to do more than usual (without randolph), and i don't know if he can demand himself of so much, and to do it every night...as he is human
Let's face it, what we are really betting on every night is "effort". not the teams. We are betting on which team will bring the energy and effort on any given night. Because any team with a lot of effort can beat any team with little effort in this league - as we see on a nightly basisComment -
We have nearly the same exact winning percentage. You're 20-15 and I'm 18-13-1.
Oh, and look at your picks over the past 3 days:
Last night
Great bets last night, BTW.was+8.5 x3
det+7.5 x8
And the night before that.
And the day before that...Noh+2.5 x6
chi+4.5 x2.5
Don't waste time on ME? You're -26 units in 72 hours. Keep quiet.Noh+4 x4
Was+9 x2.5
Gsw+4 x3
Tor+12.5 x10
I have no problem with you but also no problem embarassing someone who thinks they're a great better and talks trash.
But I guess avoiding "square" bets like me is your key to -26 units in 72 hours.
You're clearly hostile because your wallet is empty.Comment
