3 plays a day, everyday

[Andrewsurf]

Hey All,

I was a semi-active poster back in 2008, but had to take a break from the handicapping world due to self-control issues. I had no bankroll management and found myself chasing almost every night. Usually I got lucky, but it was a dangerous game in which I ended up busto.

Well, I've been lurking the past year, tailing certain people, making some of my own picks, and I want a way to track what I am doing. This thread will be for the purpose of tracking my plays. I also welcome other capper's discussion.

I am going to steal Love The Actions format for keeping track of my picks. I will also try to have write-ups for all picks. Be warned, if you tail my plays, I am a rookie at the capping game. You might be best to fade. Probably a wait and see approach would be best.

I'll post my plays at least 30 minutes prior to tip off if possible. Hopefully we can get some good discussions going and learn something!

Pick #1

Philadelphia (-11.5) 1x (Locked)

For my first pick, I will lay some serious NBA wood. I tried to talk myself out of this one, because it popped out so much initially on the card, but I just can't. Philly have been playing some beautiful team ball, and the bench also seems legit. They don't turn the ball over much, and seem to be able to create shots as a team.

New Jersey, however, are in a whole different situation. They aren't playing good team ball, and injuries have played havok on the starting lineup/rotation. This Jersey team actually seems to show up more on the road offensively, but I don't think they will be able to do so against Philly with all the shuffling. This shortened season means teams with random injuries are at a HUGE disadvantage, not only because of losing the player, but the lack of practice time to gel with teammates. This has been seen in NY with Knicks.

Jersey is also notorious for getting off to slow starts, I don't see that changing tonight, on the road, against a face paced Philly team. In fact, I'm counting on the Sixers piling on a big lead by halftime, and keeping their foot on the gas pedal.

This is a standard 1 unit play for me. I see value in the line, despite the high number. I would take this up to -12.5, but no more than that.

Edit: All plays will be juiced at -110 unless otherwise specified

[therocket]

Nice call Philly has been covering double digit spreads all year. Good luck.

[firehoyt]

Good luck to ya. Note OKC has been blowing folks out at home too!

[Andrewsurf]

Pick #1

Philadelphia (-11.5) 1x (Locked)

For my first pick, I will lay some serious NBA wood. I tried to talk myself out of this one, because it popped out so much initially on the card, but I just can't. Philly have been playing some beautiful team ball, and the bench also seems legit. They don't turn the ball over much, and seem to be able to create shots as a team.

New Jersey, however, are in a whole different situation. They aren't playing good team ball, and injuries have played havok on the starting lineup/rotation. This Jersey team actually seems to show up more on the road offensively, but I don't think they will be able to do so against Philly with all the shuffling. This shortened season means teams with random injuries are at a HUGE disadvantage, not only because of losing the player, but the lack of practice time to gel with teammates. This has been seen in NY with Knicks.

Jersey is also notorious for getting off to slow starts, I don't see that changing tonight, on the road, against a face paced Philly team. In fact, I'm counting on the Sixers piling on a big lead by halftime, and keeping their foot on the gas pedal.

This is a standard 1 unit play for me. I see value in the line, despite the high number. I would take this up to -12.5, but no more than that.

Edit: All plays will be juiced at -110 unless otherwise specified

Pick #2

Miami/Detroit under (187) 1x (Locked)

This number also jumped out at me, hopefully not only because I was on the Miami/Cleveland over last night (which missed by over 25 points.) With Wade out of the lineup, this team can still play at a fast pace, they are just less likely to do so.

Detroit Also like to slow it down, although they have a tendency to be pretty sneaky and score efficiently despite the slow pace. I see this game ending in the low 180's, but it could be very close. There will also be plenty of fast break baskets by the Heat, but hopefully they don't run up a big lead fast and force Detroit to start playing a faster pace. I expect Miami to be a bit tired defensively after playing last night, which should help Detroit keep it close. Detroit are fresh and playing at home, so I am expecting maximum defensive effort from them.

[Andrewsurf]

Good luck to ya. Note OKC has been blowing folks out at home too!

I've been loving OKC this year, but picking my spots, I've avoided two games where they've just not shown up. My book has them at -12.5 against NO tonight, I'm probably going to stay away as that's a lot to lay against a prideful NO team. Seems safe enough with OKC at home, but technically a rivalry game, a backdoor cover scares me.

[Andrewsurf]

Pick #1

Philadelphia (-11.5) 1x (Locked)

For my first pick, I will lay some serious NBA wood. I tried to talk myself out of this one, because it popped out so much initially on the card, but I just can't. Philly have been playing some beautiful team ball, and the bench also seems legit. They don't turn the ball over much, and seem to be able to create shots as a team.

New Jersey, however, are in a whole different situation. They aren't playing good team ball, and injuries have played havok on the starting lineup/rotation. This Jersey team actually seems to show up more on the road offensively, but I don't think they will be able to do so against Philly with all the shuffling. This shortened season means teams with random injuries are at a HUGE disadvantage, not only because of losing the player, but the lack of practice time to gel with teammates. This has been seen in NY with Knicks.

Jersey is also notorious for getting off to slow starts, I don't see that changing tonight, on the road, against a face paced Philly team. In fact, I'm counting on the Sixers piling on a big lead by halftime, and keeping their foot on the gas pedal.

This is a standard 1 unit play for me. I see value in the line, despite the high number. I would take this up to -12.5, but no more than that.

Edit: All plays will be juiced at -110 unless otherwise specified

Pick #2

Miami/Detroit under (187) 1x (Locked)

This number also jumped out at me, hopefully not only because I was on the Miami/Cleveland over last night (which missed by over 25 points.) With Wade out of the lineup, this team can still play at a fast pace, they are just less likely to do so.

Detroit Also like to slow it down, although they have a tendency to be pretty sneaky and score efficiently despite the slow pace. I see this game ending in the low 180's, but it could be very close. There will also be plenty of fast break baskets by the Heat, but hopefully they don't run up a big lead fast and force Detroit to start playing a faster pace. I expect Miami to be a bit tired defensively after playing last night, which should help Detroit keep it close. Detroit are fresh and playing at home, so I am expecting maximum defensive effort from them.

Play #3

Denver/Sacramento over (205) 1x (Locked)

This was initially a stay away for me, but I just can't resist based on the line. I should have jumped in this earlier in the day when it was in the 203 range, but I like this play all the way up to 206. This could close even higher than 205, we'll have to wait and see.

As you probably know, Denver have been playing great fast paced ball, and don't play a ton of defense. They should have fresh legs tonight that I believe will outweigh any extra output they have on defense.

Sacramento have let down in this spot before, but I think at home they try and keep this one close. Hopefully Denver keep up their prior road efforts and try to run up the score and win a shootout.

I think this once could be pretty close, don't see a TON of value in the line as high as it is, but I still feel comfortable playing it up to 205.5, maybe even 206.

BOL EVERYONE CARD IS FINAL

[Andrewsurf]

Jesus, MIA shooting 61% from the field and DET shooting 50% WTF

This shit better even out in the second half. Philly look like shit too.

Edit: Should have waited until halftime, the percentages WENT UP. This is unreal, I can't remember anything like this.

[Andrewsurf]

Sixers playing just good enough to win at the end, horrible.

MIA and DET shooting a combined 55%!!!!!!

Not off to a good start here.