Sweep-o.
Record: 94-72-8 [+6.35]
Record: 94-72-8 [+6.35]
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Books not wanting to hang props for tonight's games. Rest up. Playoffs coming.Comment -
4.28.12
76ers PG Jrue Holiday Total Points + Assists Over 16.5 [-135]
This seems pretty low considering Holiday's #s against Chicago this season. Holiday put up these numbers: 30/5, 16/4 & 17/5. Going back through last season, Holiday has now beat this # in five of the six meetings between these two teams. The #s this year were put up with and without Rose in the lineup, so feel comfortable with it.Comment -
[Game 1] Knicks-Heat Total Three Point Shots Made Over 14 [-115]
Going to take this prop most of this series, unless proven to not be on it. Given the way the Knicks have become a massive three point hoisting team, it's worth the roll. NY was hot down the stretch, shooting 41% from deep over their last five. NY made 109 threes in their last ten games. As good as they have been in making threes, they have had just as many problems stopping the three - allowing 44% from beyond the arc over their last five. Last time these two teams met on April 15th, NY made 9/30 while Miami hit just 4/17. Still, if you're going to see 45 three pt. attempts or more, I'm taking my chance that these two teams can fill it up 14 or more times. The key to me will be Chalmers, Jones, Battier & Miller for the Heat. Those are the likely assassins from deep, so they'll need to net 4-5 or more. I don't expect Lebron or Wade to add a ton to the mix, if they add one or two to the mix - this will be difficult to see going under.Comment -
Pacers C Roy Hibbert Total Rebounds Over 9 [-110]
No one should be happier about Dwight Howard's absence than Roy Hibbert. Hibbert just does not have the physicality despite his size to match up with Howard. Now, he faces the prospect of seeing Glen Davis and Daniel Orton - much more manageable match-ups for the 7'2" center. Hibbert should be charged with dominating the boards for Indiana. Their coach has said they won't go out of their way to involve Hibbert more offensively, but I think he still has the potential to be a big game changer on the boards in this series. If he can play 30 minutes or more, there is no excuse for him to not at least hit this number to push.Comment -
James Jones gets us off the push and a good 2-0 start to the playoffs!Comment -
Mavericks G Jason Terry Total Points Over 15 [-120]
I've seen this # all over the place. 14.5 @ SBR book, which I took to win 100. 15 @ Bovada. 16.5 @ 5Dimes. In any case, JET has 15, 16, 18 & 25 against OKC this season. His offense as usual will be needed for a club that struggles to find points at-times. Expect Terry to continue to hoist the ball up. In last year's series w/OKC, Terry had a huge Game 1 with 24 pts. The rest of the series, he was more in this neighborhood. I think if he gets the minutes he's accustomed to with this team which should be 30-35 or better, this should have a shot as long as he takes and makes some shots.Comment -
Hibbert dominating the paint. 9 rebounds in the 1st half to earn a push. Six blocked shots. Fully expect that we won't see another single digit rebound prop for him in this series, but pounced on that sucker tonight.Comment -
Wow your gonna sweep the day nice hits
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3-0 w/JET pending. Don't screw me son, I know where you live Terry!
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JET is gonna cash by the half. 6/6 from the field. 14 already. 4-0 on opening day. Boo and ya. Will probably tread a little light on Sunday depending on what they set.Comment -
Looks good so far EP! Jumped on Jet Over 16½ +120; hopefully Vinsanity passes the freakin' ball and a quick 3 seals the deal. Nice day today (tailed you on the Roma/Napoli over).
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And we gots it.
Record: 98-72-8 [+10.35]Comment -
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Nice plays def checking back for tomorrows games GLComment -
4.29.12
Jazz C Al Jefferson Total Points Over 18 [-120]
Jefferson scored 19 or more in three of the four match-ups against the Spurs this season an figures to again be a focal point of the Jazz offense. In the games against San Antonio, Jefferson took at least 19 shots in the three games he surpassed this number. In the one game where he scored just 12, he took just 12 shots. He'll need plenty of attempts and getting to the FT line would be a big help as he shoots 77% from the line. Surprisingly though for a big man, he does not get to the line consistently. I think if the game is close and Jefferson can keep clear of foul trouble and get his 35 minutes or more, this should have a shot.Comment -
Lakers C Andrew Bynum Total Points Over 20 [-125]
I think the only person who can stop Bynum in this series is Bynum if he goes into mentally challenged mode and gets himself involved in stupid stuff that leads to fouls. Otherwise, I see a dominant round from the Lakers Big Man. He scored 20 or better in three of the four regular season meetings. The lone miss was an 18 pt. effort when he was limited with foul difficulty. Bynum had 30 the last time they met and be it McGee, Koufos or Mozgov - this is a tough match-up for Denver.Comment -
Not looking good for Jefferson. 10 pts. 4 fouls. On the bench. Hopefully can rebound with the Bynum pick. Expected today to be potentially rough, so keep that in mind.Comment -
Thought we were going to luck out on Jefferson, but he got pulled with under 2:00 to go. Finishes with 16. Only played 32 minutes. I think if he plays that 35 I was looking for, he at least pushes ... but thems the breaks.Comment -
Definitely looking like an evening out day. Bynum can't even get in position for a shot so far and they're barely looking for him so far. Eeesh.Comment -
Hard to get 20 points when you get six shots. Grind on. Hopefully over the course of two days, the win percentage stays near 60%.
Celtics PG Rajon Rondo Total Assists Over 12.5 [-115]
Rondo has been a brilliant assist man, dishing out 13 or more in seven of his last eight starts and 24 of 53 games overall. He dished out 13 and 20 against the Hawks this season in two appearances.Comment -
Tailing Rondo prop GL
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Day of shite thus far. Rondo scoring more today because the rest of the Cs suck. Thought the points or assists prop would cash on the over for him, but thought assists was safer.
This next one I had my eye on to track for this series. Think it's set lazily according to season averages. Clippers net around 8 per game. Memphis gets about 4. Clips attempt about 22. Memphis around 13. LA has the ability to get double digit threes most any night. Memphis is not a volume shooting three point club, but they have shooters. If they get 4, it should have a shot to cash most nights. Be nice to not turn 4-0 yesterday in .500 with 0-4 today!
[Game 1] Grizzlies-Clippers Total Three Point Shots Made Over 11.5 [-115]Comment -
Well at least ending on a high note. Clippers barely contribute, but Grizzlies on fire.
Record: 99-75-8 [+7.75]
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I've seen a lot of shifts already in #s after just one game in a series. They bumped the Knicks-Heat three prop from 14 to 14.5. Hibbert from 9 to 10.5 on rebounds. That probably is 0.5 high in my opinion, but it probably should have been 10 to start the series and not 9. The one that did not move was Jason Terry @ 15 still, surprising to me since he had 20 and was red hot, although that being said - he did do all his damage on just ten shots, so maybe they're not expecting a hot shooting night again. Let's see how we roll tonight.
[Game 2] Magic C Glen Davis Total Points + Rebounds Over 25.5 [-130]
Big Baby continued his solid play in Game 1 as he has really become a factor in the Magic offense. He had 16/13 and held his own against Hibbert & Co. In ten starts down the stretch, Davis scored a double-double six times. He has scored 15 points or better in eight of those games. Davis stayed free from foul trouble and was on the floor 40 minutes. Being the best post defender and weapon inside, he should continue to see solid minutes as long as the games remain competitive.
[Game 2] Mavericks F Dirk Nowitzki Total Points Over 25 [-120]
Dirk had a quiet 25 in Game on 8/18 shooting with 9/10 from the line. No threes made in two attempts. Ibaka spent most of the night on him and did a solid job. Rick Carlisle is already planting the seeds for more foul calls though, complaining about the rough treatment Dirk got, so that could mean a few more FT trips. Dirk has scored 25 or better now in four of five meetings against OKC. I expect him to get his points again.Comment -
Sweep.
Record: 101-75-8 [+9.75]Comment -
5.1.12
Celtics-Hawks Total Three Point Shots Made Over 11 [-110]
I was waiting to see if they'd drop this further and take my shot on it. Done and done. Boston was a rancide 0-11 from three point range and isn't likely to have Ray Allen again, but this lineup they will have tonight could yield some threes. With Rondo down too, Bradley runs the point. Pietrus who loves the three ball is in the starting lineup too. That right there + Paul Pierce should give them chances to nail some long balls tonight. Dooling and Pavlovic also likely get more minutes, more three point threats. The Hawks as I outlined maybe a week or two ago have become a much more efficient and plentiful three point club in the last couple weeks. They shot 7/20 in Game 1. Dating back to the final regular season with the Boston scrubs, the Hawks have now made 44/91 from deep with several games in double digits. Their three point D has been leaky @ 39.5% over their last five, so Boston will find looks - they need to knock them down. Key for me here is Pierce. He has to make a couple so that Boston can add maybe 4-5 threes to the mix. I expect Atlanta at home is capable of at least seven again and perhaps more.
Nuggets PG Ty Lawson Total Assists Over 6 [-115]
Just a hunch. Improved play, spacing and finishing should give Lawson a chance to equal or surpass this number. Lawson is still too quick to keep him from turning the corner and being able to dish and drive. Shooting 35% will not get you many assists. Lawson had 4, 7, 11 & 8 assists against the Lakers during the regular season so he's found holes before. It's up to Denver to find them tonight. They may get some help from the refs if they listen to George Karl whining about Bynum basically zoning up all night in the lane to block shots. If they call some defensive three seconds, could open the lane up a tad bit.Comment -
Both teams sucked it up from 3 tonight, but geeze Boston --- 3/14? Don't think that I can work this prop again with the short of long range shooting Boston offers w/out Ray Allen. Pierce & Pietrus were the ones I thought would help here, but they were 1/8. If they make 3, this pushes ... but that's how it rolls.Comment -
Split 'em last night. Lawson w/7 ast. Tonight are the series I liked best as far as potential props, so hopefully can find some good ones. Interested to see where the Grizzlies-Clippers 3 pt. prop goes. Was 11.5, but 17 made threes. Realistically it should have probably been 12 to open. That will be the minimum I bet we see on this prop now. There shouldn't be a gross over reaction though because Memphis isn't going to make 11/16 again, although like I said they can get 6-8 I think in any game despite their regular season #s.
Record: 102-76-8 [+9.65]Comment -
5.2.12
Jazz F Paul Millsap Total Points Over 16.5 [-105]
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What a blood bath in San Antonio. Hard to win anything unless you loaded up on unders. Sheesh.
[Game 2] Clippers-Grizzlies Total Three Point Shots Made Over 12 [-115]
They went up the expected 0.5 from the 1st game, but remaining in a good spot to hammer this one. Clippers finished with a flurry, hopefully that shooting carries over. Their 6/18 from deep was less than I expected. Still, with how poor their 3 pt. defense has been [43% allowed in their last 5] - Memphis won't repeat 11/16, but should have a shot to add a half dozen or better again.Comment -
3 pt. prop booked at -105 instead.Comment -
Oy. 0-4 in the 1st Q on threes. Today may wind up sucking a big one.Comment -
Finished @ 11 on the 3 prop. They didn't start shooting until the 2nd half which really made that one rough. Memphis especially didn't do much from deep with just 2/11 ... I think. But when you get everything else going, no need to take 3s I suppose. Hopefully bounce back tonight.
Record: 102-78-8 [+7.55]Comment -
5.3.12
[Game 3] Knicks-Heat Total Three Point Shots Made Over 14.5 [-110]
This number was kept the same from Game 2 after the two teams combined for 14 threes. They tallied 15 in Game 1 with the 15th coming in the dying seconds of the game. So what's to like with the over tonight? No A'Mare Stoudemire. That is a big key to me as that means a more free flowing offense with Anthony dominating ball possession and looking for the shooters as well as of course taking his own shot. This should be more like the final regular season meeting where the Knicks chunked up 30 threes, making only nine. That sort of performance could work though as the Heat have found their three point stroke in this series and been taking the 3-ball a bit more frequently with 21 attempts in each of the 1st two games and 17 makes combined [8 & 9]. The 21 shots per game is about five more than they took on average in the regular season and would go a long way in helping cash this tonight if they can keep making a high rate. As we looked before Game 1, Miller, Battier and Jones were the key guys I thought for helping this prop. That has become mainly Miller & Battier who are 11/25 through the first two games. Chalmers has been adding a little bit & then some fringe threes have come into play from guys like Bosh & Lebron. It would help if Lebron took a few more, but I think between Miller, Battier & Chalmers they remain capable of hitting a half dozen minimum. Knicks will need Novak, JR Smith, 'Melo, Baron Davis & Bibby to set the tone early at home by loosening up the D with some threes.Comment