EP36's Prop Shop

[EaglesPhan36]

Well I abandoned the 2nd half project, just did not translate consistently to the NBA. Going back to my bread and butter in the NBA, really about the only thing I like betting in the league and that is props. One of my main ones will be 3 pt props because it has treated me well in the past. Player props I find a bit tough until there are a couple meetings between the same teams to gauge more info. So this thread is what it is. Follow. Fade. Whatever's clever. You're in the Prop Shop baby!

1.21.12
Nuggets-Knicks Total Three Pointers Made Over 13.5 [-125]
These two combined to hoist up about 42 threes per game. Denver is the more accurate of the two at 36%. New York shooting a paltry 30%. Knicks have had issues defending the arc this season of late, allowing over 45% in their last five. For the season, they let in about 42% at Madison Square Garden. Denver is in a fairly solid groove right now, hitting over 40% over their last five. I think the Nuggets do more of the damage tonight and could get double digits here depending on the number of attempts.

[ksnooksk]

I think this one hits easy!

[EaglesPhan36]

Wasn't easy, but an OT casher .... and I will take that to start.

[EaglesPhan36]

1.22.12
Bucks-Heat Total Three Pointers Made Over 11.5 [-110]
Both teams are middle of the pack in made 3s per game with both averaging six per contest. The Heat though rank 2nd in 3pt FG% at 40%. The two teams combine for about 35 attempts per game. Miami has struggled defensively against the long ball all-season, allowing 42% shooting on their home court. Heat are hot shooting threes of late with 44 makes in their last five, including the outburst vs. San Antonio.

[EaglesPhan36]

Bucks 1 for 14. Pretty sure I could do that.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 1-1 [-0.10]

1.23.12
Wizards John Wall Total Points Over 17 [-110]
Wall has had a good run in the last five games. He's scored 19 or more in four of those five. He's faced the Sixers twice this season, one solid performance with 18 points and the other, ugly with just seven in a large, blowout loss. For his career, he's usually good against them with a 19 ppg average in six meetings. His road form has been a bit shaky this year, this would be a good time to continue his recent roll and parlay that into some good form away from home.

[inn_keeper]

Tailing you as always EP, too bad the formula didn't translate to NBA. I have had much better results using it strictly in NCAA. Anyway, BOL in the Prop Shop!

[EaglesPhan36]

Not much you can do when the coach sits you on the pine in a blowout. Don't think he played a minute in the 4th quarter and not much in the 2nd Q. Fukk.

[mikea33]

EP36....im ******* pumped you ahve a prop shop now i was wondering where you NBA total thread went.

[EaglesPhan36]

Okay, I am all day stupid here ... but Golden State is good enough to do most of the work or all of it and Memphis has their fits where they make some threes. So call me stupid.

Grizzlies-Warriors Total Three Pointers Made Over 10 [-115]

[mikea33]

Let the tailing begin my friend...let's make it rain...literally!!! On this and warriors ML so lets hope they light it up with record setting treeees

[mikea33]

Wow, attempts are there, its just BRICKCITY and SLASHCITY

[inn_keeper]

Damn, would have been nice if Rush would have drained that 3 at the end of 3Q to bring the total up to 8. I think we are looking pretty good at this point though with 7 at the end of 3.

[inn_keeper]

Whew, cashed with like 1.5 seconds left lol. Good end to the day.

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah got off that push. I will bang just about any game that sets a total of just ten threes. I know there are some absolute shit shooting teams from deep, but if you have one team that is at least league average - it's worth the risk to me. There was a Kings-Bulls game early in the year that was at 9.5. I think it ended with 14.

Record: 2-2 [-0.20]

[EaglesPhan36]

1.24.12
Knicks Amar'e Stoudemire Total Points Over 20 [-125]
Stoudemire has been MIA too much in New York's offense this season. It appears a large part of that could be due to the lack of a solid play making point guard like Baron Davis to get him the ball where he needs it. Still, he has 25 in both meetings against Charlotte this season and seems a bad match-up for them if he gets the ball enough. I don't see anyone on their roster who can effectively check him with Diaw, Thomas or White getting duty on him maybe? Sounds like the recipe for some points again IF he gets his shots.

[EaglesPhan36]

Dead early. Two fouls already and to the bench with 0 points. Not expecting too much, so I'll check back in during the 2nd half and see if he has a point yet.

[mikea33]

Not worried EP36....key to this play is if charlotte keeps it close

[mikea33]

told you ep......this is amares game he might go for 30

[EaglesPhan36]

Negativity always helps jump start things eh?


Still got work to do.

[EaglesPhan36]

Not feelin great in a blowout. Will Amare'e play enough in the 4th Q to give it a shot?

[mikea33]

Not feelin great in a blowout. Will Amare'e play enough in the 4th Q to give it a shot?

I hope so, is 3 baskets enough to ask for atleast a push? your analysis was right on just Chandler got the load tonight

[EaglesPhan36]

Screwed. He just got subbed out with 18 pts. He's not coming back in. Story of my night. He probably could have had 20 without the early fouls or if he was going to play a little longer. Only played 28 mins.

[inn_keeper]

Anything for the late game?

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 2-3 [-1.45]

1.25.12
Pacers F Danny Granger Total Points Over 17 [-110]

[Pauulzcappin]

I have been looking at that prop too, Pinny has at +109 but not sure if I can pull the trigger. He should get some easy ones as I guess Korver is going to be guarding him but Granger can just outshoot Pacers out of games.

[EaglesPhan36]

Push at worst mid-way through the 3rd!

[EaglesPhan36]

Got it.

[inn_keeper]

There it is, Granger w/ 19 points. Good call!

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 3-3 [-0.45]

[EaglesPhan36]

1.26.12
Grizzlies-Clippers Total Three Pointers Made Over 9.5 [-130]
Again, a very low number set here with a team in LA that is capable of making most of this themselves. Clippers average seven threes per game. They have made eight or more in six of their last seven overall. Not under the misconception that Memphis adds a ton to this because they only average three makes, but LA's three pt. D has been leaky at times - so if they at least hit that low average, this should get done.

[csavoia]

Does pinnacle or sia offer this prop bet??

[EaglesPhan36]

Five already in the 1st quarter. These soft three point totals make me happy.

[jimmy007oc]

[jimmy007oc]

one more lucky 3 before the break