EP36's Prop Shop

[EaglesPhan36]

4.3.12

Knicks G J.R. Smith Total Points Over 10.5 [-110]
Smith is going to continue to get minutes with Lin out and Carmelo trying to work through his groin injury. They need offense and he provides that. In the four games since Lin left, Smith is averaging close to 30 minutes per game and has gotten 33+ minutes in two straight. He comes in off a 20 point night against Cleveland. No doubt he is going to get shots, he has attempted double digit shots in each game. His three point shooting has been erratic so far, but 3/7 against Cleveland hopefully gets him going. Indiana has had trouble covering three point shooters in their last five, allowing 40% shooting. If Smith can get his 30 minutes and his double digit FGAs, I'll take that chance.

[EaglesPhan36]

Sacramento SF Tyreke Evans Total Points Over 17 [-120]
No Grant Hill to defend Evans which should make this a much better match-up for him. He's in off two solid performances with 23 & 24 points in back to back games.

[EaglesPhan36]

Guess I shouldn't have shyed away from Cousins. He's got all the points and rebounds. Wanted to take him over on points or rebounds, but wasn't expecting it. Evans shooting like shit. 4/13. Not likely to sniff 17.

[Laissez Faire]

yeah cousins would have been good play...but you are good capper my friend, and I enjoy reading your analysis each day

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 68-53-6 [+5.10]

4.4.12

Nets-Trail Blazers Total Three Point Shots Made Over 15 [-125]
This is another game where we could see between 45-50 three point shots attempted and with these two squads, I'll take my shot on the over again. Both are definitely capable of double digit makes. The Nets rank 2nd in attempts per game behind the Magic at about 24 per game. They average eight makes. Portland is now averaging around seven made threes per game on 20 attempts. Again if you go back and look at about their last ten games, they are mostly making a minimum of seven and several nights 10-12. Crawford may be out for Portland again, but they still made a dozen threes against Utah in their last game without his services.

Toronto SG DeMar DeRozan Total Points Over 16 [-115]
DeRozan has looked just fine since returning from an ankle injury with 15 or more in four straight. Overall, he has beaten tonight's number in eight of his last nine games. His minutes played remain fairly steady when the team competes as he normally gets 35 or more per game. DeRozan's numbers from the one clash with Philadelphia this season were ugly, but the team as a whole sucked with just 62 points. He had two huge games against the Sixers last year though, so if the Raptors compete hard - he should get opportunities.

[EaglesPhan36]

DeRozan home a winna!

[swordsandtequila]

[EaglesPhan36]

Portland 3 point props = GOLD.

[EaglesPhan36]

Nice 'n tidy.

Record: 70-53-6 [+7.10]

[EaglesPhan36]

4.5.12

Knicks SF Carmelo Anthony Total Points Over 25 [-140]
Getting chalkier by the minute, but it still makes sense with the Knicks injury situation. Carmelo is thriving as a ball hog again with 25 or better in four of his last five. He's taken at least 20 shots in three of those five, so if he keeps up the volume shooting and NY stays competitive - he should rack up the points.

[H1Cypher]

4.5.12

Knicks SF Carmelo Anthony Total Points Over 25 [-140]
Getting chalkier by the minute, but it still makes sense with the Knicks injury situation. Carmelo is thriving as a ball hog again with 25 or better in four of his last five. He's taken at least 20 shots in three of those five, so if he keeps up the volume shooting and NY stays competitive - he should rack up the points.

Pretty sure I saw it at -120 earlier today at 5dimes. It's now at -125 if you have dimes you may want to consider this.

[H1Cypher]

That lasted about 4 minutes at 5dimes. Someone must be tracking these threads cause it's now at -135 =p. Was sitting at -125 forever even just 2 minutes ago.

[EaglesPhan36]

I think it went up about 20 cents this afternoon. I saw it at -125 earlier, but hadn't booked it yet.

[EaglesPhan36]

Not looking good. 3rd Q screwed this up. Only two points and the Knicks turned it into a blowout. Don't see him playing at all in the 4th.

[EaglesPhan36]

Celtics PG Rajon Rondo Total Assists Over 11.5 [-130]

[H1Cypher]

Celtics PG Rajon Rondo Total Assists Over 11.5 [-130]

+105 at 5dimes ma dude. This very second I'm looking at it right now.

[EaglesPhan36]

Said it before, I play 'em where my money is at. Line isn't always going to be the best perhaps - but I maintain, win and don't worry.

[H1Cypher]

Said it before, I play 'em where my money is at. Line isn't always going to be the best perhaps - but I maintain, win and don't worry.

Someone perusing your thread would surely find it helpful I am sure =). I had it up 1 minute after your post ;-p.

[EaglesPhan36]

One more ...

Clippers-Kings Total Three Point Shots Made Over 14 [-105]
Clippers will do most of this work, but are capable of making anywhere from 8-12 every night with Paul, Foye, Butler and Young off the bench as the main culprits. They had nine vs. the Lakers last night. Kings won't get a ton, but they have a couple guys in Thomas and Fredette who can run hot and cold. They didn't attempt many last time out with Cousins dominating. He isn't likely to get free reign inside against the Clippers, so expect more outside shots from that duo + Green. No Thornton hurts this a little, but confident if the Clippers shoot well this can get done. Garcia may also help out Sacramento. Kings perimeter D has been bad lately which will help.

[EaglesPhan36]

Midway through the 3rd. 4/22 combined shooting threes. Need one assist from Rondo to at least get a W tonight.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 71-55-6 [+5.65]

[EaglesPhan36]

4.6.12

Trail Blazers-Mavericks Total Three Point Shots Made Over 14.5 [-110]
I think anyone who visits my thread knows by now my affinity for the Portland three point prop since Nate McMillan got canned. See no reason not to roll with it again tonight, especially with a Dallas team that also likes to chuck up threes. Granted, Dallas is not a high % three point shooting team, but they have several players who run hot & cold who can carry them to anywhere from six to double digit threes on a given night. West, Carter, Nowitzki, Terry, Beaubois and even Marion will all hoist away. Portland has been hot of late, shooting 40% from deep in their last five. In that stretch, they have hit for a dozen three pointers in three games and a minimum of eight in the others.

[EaglesPhan36]

Nuggets SG Aaron Afflalo Total Points Over 17 [-130]

[EaglesPhan36]

Lakers SG Kobe Bryant Total Points Over 28 [-120]
Kobe owns the Rockets.

[5mike5]

Lakers SG Kobe Bryant Total Points Over 28 [-120]
Kobe owns the Rockets.

got this 1 with ya, got late +115

[EaglesPhan36]

Two bankers and a push on Kobe.

Record: 73-55-7 [+7.65]

[csavoia]

i have to keepo checking your posts EP i always get the early post but forget to check later and it has cost me some serious coin the past cpouple weeks.. you are the prop man for basketball for sure...

[EaglesPhan36]

4.7.12

Grizzlies-Mavericks Total Three Point Shots Made Over 11 [-120]
The addition of Arenas has made Memphis a little more lethal from beyond the arc. Memphis is shooting 39% from deep over their last five. They have made 32 threes in that stretch and hit seven or more in three straight. Dallas remains a bit more of a volume shooting three point club, but again possess enough talent to hit for six or much more on any given night. These two teams combined for eleven makes when they met just a few days ago. Memphis is pretty good defending the perimeter, but with both teams very capable of getting six on any night, this looks good.

[EaglesPhan36]

Phoenix C Marcin Gortat Total Points + Rebounds Over 27.5 [-115]
Gortat has had some big games against the Lakers this season. 21/15, 21/16 and 16/12.

Denver SG Aaron Afflalo Total Points Over 17 [-115]
Same as last night, Nuggets need offense and Afflalo is offering that. He scored 26 last time against Golden State and he has at least 17 in four of his last six games.

[EaglesPhan36]

Gortat # is 26.5 not 27.5.

[EaglesPhan36]

These last two are going to be hurtful pieces of shit. Gortat only plays two full quarters and the last couple of minutes. Put up pretty solid stats - 14/9 but didn't get enough PT to have a shot. Afflalo is just probably the worst prop beat I can remember. 13 1st Q points. He has THREE since and is barely involved in the offense. Let's see ... you won the 1st Q when Afflalo was leading the way and then you don't get him involved and you get pounded ... do the math George Karl you fukk.

[burchfield]

Anything today?

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 74-57-7 [+6.35]

4.7.12

Jazz-Spurs Total Three Point Shots Made Over 11.5 [-125]
Let's not blow smoke here, this is a play mainly on San Antonio to get the majority of this done. They are a solid three point shooting squad @ 39% on the season. Utah has had some issues covering shooters in their last five, allowing close to 43% from deep. Utah isn't going to shoot a ton of threes, but they have guys like Harris and Heyward who can get maybe 3-6 threes along with their fringe shooters which should be more than enough here. Spurs average about eight makes per game and have the guns to get double digits. I think if they can get 8-10, Utah should can just enough.

[EaglesPhan36]

Sacramento C DeMarcus Cousins Total Points Over 20.5 [-110]

[EaglesPhan36]

Splitsville again. Cousins was barely a factor.

Record: 75-58-7 [+6.25]