Getting a bad number

BettingWizard · 01-18-12, 11:12 AM

add more if you like the play a lot

CHAZ · 01-18-12, 11:14 AM

Originally posted by BettingWizard

add more if you like the play a lot

I did like the play, but the way the line is moving makes me think big money is on the over.

Donnie Brasco · 01-18-12, 11:26 AM

Great question chaz. Saw ur post in LTAs forum. I am nowhere near the capper LTA is, but i would say take ur medicine and move on. I am at best 60-40 when predicting moves, football being my best. Try and figure out why it moved against you, and learn from it. One day u can hone ur skills to a great level of 70 someodd percent like LTA. U might still have a winner. Steam against u isnt always bad. Look at the bulls total last night! Best of luck.

balls2wall · 01-18-12, 11:33 AM

I usually just stick with what I have and ride it out.

The problem is if you take the other side then it can hit in the middle and you lose both. Also, if you double up on your original play just because you are getting a better number then you can lose double even though you normally wouldn't have bet double on it.

I know you already know all that, but that is the approach I usually take.

Donnie Brasco · 01-18-12, 11:43 AM

I would say never buy out of the play, or add to it. Just doesnt make sense.

CHAZ · 01-18-12, 11:51 AM

Originally posted by Donnie Brasco

I would say never buy out of the play, or add to it. Just doesnt make sense.

Well, buying it back when the line has moved 4-5 or more points would seem to me you're leaving lots of room for you to lose on both ends

Donnie Brasco · 01-18-12, 12:34 PM

Originally posted by CHAZ

Well, buying it back when the line has moved 4-5 or more points would seem to me you're leaving lots of room for you to lose on both ends

My thoughts exactly

SpreadSniper · 01-18-12, 02:01 PM

look around to get a feel for which side is juicing before you make the bet... I know you dont have time to watch lines all day, but if you saw the over juicing at 80% of books you'd have an inkling as to what the line will do as the day progresses.
obviously you have time to get on the internet throughout the day, dont play a number unless you are 100% certain you are getting a "good" number.
I'd rather KNOW I have a good closer instead of HOPING on hitting the opener straight.

HoulihansTX · 01-18-12, 03:03 PM

When betting totals, just understand that its a volatile market that can move either way.

For all you know the same people that have bet it over, are now betting it under.

Ride it out, and see what you can do @ halftime.

SlickRick1382 · 01-19-12, 01:19 AM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

When betting totals, just understand that its a volatile market that can move either way.

For all you know the same people that have bet it over, are now betting it under.

Ride it out, and see what you can do @ halftime.

To continue on what you said.

Attempting to hedge / middle a play that's 4-5 points removed from your original bet is bad news. Your best bet to attempt that would be during half-time or if you have the ability to bet live.

Not advocating buying out of a play or anything like that. Just telling you the best chances you have to do so while avoiding a possible middle and losing both plays.

BOL

CHAZ · 01-19-12, 08:20 AM

Originally posted by SlickRick1382

To continue on what you said.

Attempting to hedge / middle a play that's 4-5 points removed from your original bet is bad news. Your best bet to attempt that would be during half-time or if you have the ability to bet live.

Not advocating buying out of a play or anything like that. Just telling you the best chances you have to do so while avoiding a possible middle and losing both plays.

BOL

Live betting is to much of a pain by phone. Thanks for the idea though

Line movement didn't even matter either way this time.

SlickRick1382 · 01-19-12, 09:25 AM

Originally posted by CHAZ

Live betting is to much of a pain by phone. Thanks for the idea though Line movement didn't even matter either way this time.

That's why I opened up a Bodog and 5 Dimes account. Don't keep much in there except for situations like this. May not be a bad idea...

upscope · 01-19-12, 09:45 AM

Originally posted by BettingWizard

add more if you like the play a lot

Personally, this is the last thing I would do.

I like the buying out @ halftime if the opportunity arises strategy.