Gudis knows all

[Gudis]

Wow. That hurts. At least you hit your biggest play though, bruh.

Ya, never good to see so much red. Came so close to hitting the NOR ML, that would have been sweet! All in all, a 1.2 unit loss day is easy for me to stomach. Good feelings about today's lines. Lots of action today.

[Gudis]

PHX ML (+230) @ BOS
Risking 1 unit to win 2.3

PHX +6 (-105) @ BOS
Risking 1 unit

WAS +7.5 (-105) vs DEN
Risking 1 unit

The Suns should win this game, given that Rondo is out and Avery Bradley will get the Nash assignment. My faith in this wager all boils down to how much value you think Rondo has to this aging Celtic team. I am of the belief that the Celts are very likely to breakdown tonight, perhaps even get blown out on their home floor. Celtics are going to ugly on O tonight, Rondo's presence will be sorely missed.

This is an ideal let down spot for DEN, and I'm putting my money on a young WAS team swole with confidence. John Wall going to be on sportscenter tonight. Book it.

[Gudis]

LAL -3.5 (-105) @ ORL
Risking 1 unit

Lakers have all the motivation in the world in this game. Kobe isn't likely to lay 2 eggs in a row. Here's to a close, exciting game

[Gudis]

ugh. too late to start fading LA? this game is unwatchable. I will never use the happy faces/beer clinking animation again. Ever.

[Gudis]

MIN +4.5 (-105) @ LAC
Risking 2 units

Intriguing line movement makes me extremely suspicious of this being a trap bet game. Rubio is impressing me more and more each time I see him play, and without Paul to slow him down he's another walking highlight reel. Potential let down game for Clips, coming off a successful b2b2b and stealing a W off DAL in the last one. Love/Griffin is going to be an insane match up, which I am very excited for. I think (although I just got burned) Williams and Billups will show their old legs having to absorb Paul's heavy minutes.

[Gudis]

Results for 1/20/12:

MIL +5 (-105) @ NYK
Risking 2 units.....[+2u]

Kings @ Spurs (196o)
Risking 1 unit.....[-1.1u]

Bulls @ Cavaliers (186u)
Risking 1 unit.....[-1.1u]

PHX ML (+230) @ BOS
Risking 1 unit to win 2.3.....[+2.3u]

PHX +6 (-105) @ BOS
Risking 1 unit.....[+1u]

WAS +7.5 (-105) vs DEN
Risking 1 unit.....[+1u]

LAL -3.5 (-105) @ ORL
Risking 1 unit.....[-1.05u]

MIN +4.5 (-105) @ LAC
Risking 2 units.....[+2u]

Today's Totals: +5.05 units

Season Totals: +8.25 units

Overall Record: 10-8
Spread Record: 8-4
Money Line Record: 2-2
Over/Under Record: 0-2

[MexicanStallion]

Nice work today. I also had a positive Friday Night.

[Gudis]

Nice work today. I also had a positive Friday Night.

Hell ya! Happy to hear that. Great job getting on MIA and NOR both last night, Lakers are doing a great job burning me :P Lots of dogs coming though recently, Vegas must be loving it. How about we carry this momentum into the weekend, sound good?

[Authentic]

wasn't it MIN +4.5

[Gudis]

wasn't it MIN +4.5

Thanks Authentic, I made the changes. I've already made this mistake posting the BOS ML on my first day's post. I make this mistake a lot, I might be point spread/money line dyslexic - But hopefully you guys get the point.

[Gudis]

Leans for tomorrow:

Leaning hard on MIN both to cover the spread and ML. Two words: Yoga and Devinharrisairballs.

Slight lean on SAS to cover. Two words: Revenge and Pride.

Slight lean on DET to cover. No words.

Not sure yet about the PHI@MIA or DEN@NYK yet, but I'll be interested in seeing how the lines move. I'll have to sleep on these and see what happens tomorrow.

[Gudis]

DEN -2.5 (-110) @ NYK
Risking 2 units

DEN ML (-145) @ NYK
Risking 2 units to win 1.38

This Knicks/Nuggets line is an interesting one, as the books have seemed to finally adjust their spread in favor for NY. I was back and forth on this game for while, debating if the fishy line was a trap or not. The Knicks are on a five game skid, and a lot of people think they wont allow a third straight home loss, especially since they lost to MIL and PHX. The reality is this team couldn't buy a win against a quality team if their lives depended on it. Knicks are one catalyst event away from a full meltdown, and they can't hide in the bright lights of NY. People are expecting way better play considering the talent on their roster, and while it may be unfair to can D'antoni (seeing as he doesn't have a viable PG option) I wouldn't be shocked to see him go this season. Can the Knicks show some pride, some heart, some courage and exploit a shotty DEN D at home tonight? Sure it can happen. However when I play this one out in my head (very scientific, I know) I see the DEN blowout/ 3+ win happening much more often than NYK squeaking out a close one.

CLE +7.5 (-110) @ ATL
Risking 2 units

I am of the opinion the Hawks are "soft" or maybe better put they aren't mentally tough. The Hawks core 4 has been together almost as long as any other teams core 4, and yet the Hawks continue to prove they lack the cohesiveness and leadership to "show up" against lesser opponents. They can usually close these games out, but they tend to play down to their competition and I think the L vs MIA is a perfect example (when Dwade and LBJ were late game scratches). Additionally they also failed to cover while facing TOR, MIN and NJN at home. Not taking the ML because I still think ATL wins, just by 4-6.

[Gudis]

Forgot to mention this note on Nene, from Rotoworld:

According to the Denver Post's Benjamin Hochman, Nene (heel) is now probable to suit up on Saturday night when the Nuggets face the Knicks.
Nuggets coach George Karl had previously said that Nene would "likely" miss Saturday's game in New York, but those around the Nuggets now sound confident about his immediate return

[Authentic]

Cleveland just went to +8, BOOOOOO

[Gudis]

NOR +5.5 (-110) vs DAL
Risking 1 unit

NOR ML (+200) vs DAL
Risking 1 unit to win 2 units

Dirk is going to be the key factor in this bet, and I'm obviously betting against him putting up his usual numbers in NOR, based off his last dismal performance. I'm also hoping Ariza's groin isn't too serious, because he will be needed to push the pace and get the crowd into it with exciting plays (slashing, dunking, steals and fast breaks) - and hopefully he limits himself on the long jumpers. Jack is hit or miss sometimes, but under these circumstances (marquee team, good home crowd, desperate for win after losing by 2 to HOU) Jack could be set for a monster game. Let's also remember this NOR team plays hard for all 48 mins, their last 7 games: HOU(-2), MEM(-6), POR(-7), MEM(-9), MIN(-7), OKC(-10), DEN(-8). Considering Dirk's potential injury, a slight letdown factor for DAL, I'm comfortable taking the spread, and even the ML considering there is a decent chance NOR can win handily 6+.

Feel better Karen Brownson! 470-955

[Gudis]

Cleveland just went to +8, BOOOOOO

Well I feel better knowing the NOR +5.5 just moved to +4 because Dirk is getting shut down for 4 games. HEYO. And its still +7.5 at my book anyways.

[Gudis]

MIN +7 (-110) @ UTA
Risking 1 unit

[Gudis]

Results for 1/21/12:

DEN -2.5 (-110) @ NYK
Risking 2 units.....[+2u]

DEN ML (-145) @ NYK
Risking 2 units to win 1.38.....[+1.38u]

CLE +7.5 (-110) @ ATL
Risking 2 units.....[-2.2u]

NOR +5.5 (-110) vs DAL
Risking 1 unit.....[+1u]

NOR ML (+200) vs DAL
Risking 1 unit to win 2 units.....[-1u]

MIN +7 (-110) @ UTA
Risking 1 unit.....[-1.1u]

Today's totals: +0.08 units

Season totals: +8.33 units

Overall Record: 13-11
Spread Record: 10-6
Money Line Record: 3-3
Over/Under Record: 0-2

[Gudis]

MIA ML (-480) vs MIL
Risking 4.8 units to win 1 unit

This is a tricky line, for sure as MIL gets only a point or two more than the Sixers got last night vs MIA. Fatigue plays a factor as MIL will be more rested, as well as the letdown spot for the Heat. Jennings is coming off his season's best performance in the garden, and if he gets it going early on and gets his confidence rolling, he is the biggest threat to topple the Heat at home. However will they be able to do so more than 1 in 5 contests? No. MIL is too young and inexperienced to play smart and under control for 48 on the road, and the Heat are going to be incredibly tough to stop right now considering their recent Dwadeless games.

[Gudis]

Pacers @ Lakers (180u)
Risking 2 units

I'm banking on this being a slow paced, half-court, shot clock draining mud wrestling contest. The Lakers and Pacers are both in top 5 for points allowed, so strong defense should dictate the pace of the game and assuming its not a turnover fest, fast break points should be a scarcity. The Lakers could burn me with a breakout scoring performance, but I'm probably going to fade LA until they land Howard. If you've watched LA recently, your seeing what I'm seeing: no contributions from the bench, Bynum constantly getting foul trouble early, Pau settling for long jumpers (3's even), Kobe being forced to make something happen - opposed to letting the game come to him. The only thing consistent with the Lakers is their solid D (thanks coach Brown) and their shitty O. I can easily see this being a 89 - 84 game, so I've doubled the wager (I typically only roll with 1x bets for o/u). Let's cash it tonight!

[Playoff_Beard]

Rough Day for you. Better luck tomorrow!

[Gudis]

Results for 1/23/12:

MIA ML (-480) vs MIL
Risking 4.8 units to win 1 unit.....[-4.8u]

Pacers @ Lakers (180u)
Risking 2 units.....[-2.2u]

Today's totals: -7 units

Season totals: +1.33 units

Overall Record: 13-13
Spread Record: 10-6
Money Line Record: 3-4
Over/Under Record: 0-3

[Gudis]

Rough Day for you. Better luck tomorrow!

Thanks Brolaf. Units come, units go. Just another day in the grind, I love tomorrow's games so lets see if we can improve from today's results.

[Gudis]

WAS +14 (-110) @ PHI
Risking 2 units

I'll take 14 for the Wiz considering their last four games; 6 point loss to BOS, 4 point loss to DEN, 3 pt victory to OKC, and an 8 point loss to HOU. However two key differences between those games and tonight's game is WAS was at home and coming off 1 days rest. And although this game is a B2B on the road, the schedule spacing has been kind to WAS thus far and I also think the fatigue affects WAS less considering their young legs. Believe it or not, the Wiz are playing competitive basketball right now, and in this game of momentum I like my chances of WAS covering the largest spread of the year. What do you call a Wall with a lot of momentum? 2 units.

HOU +2.5 (-110) @ MIN
Risking 3 units

I'm buying in to MIN becoming a "public" team, and I think this line proves it. HOU is flat out the better team who is taking care of business, bringing their 6 game winning streak to MIN, who is not exactly stellar at home (4-5). The Rocket's 2-6 road record is a bit deceiving considering they have faced: SAS, OKC, LAL, LAC, MEM, and ORL. Let's face it, there is nothing attractive about the Rocket's style of basketball (KMartin and Scola are the epitome of this), which is opposite of the TWolves exciting brand of fan friendly and fast paced brand of basketball. HOU has taken 14 of the last 15 match ups with MIN, and I think they should be favorites in this game. Likely taking ML once its released.

[Gudis]

BOS +6 (-110) vs ORL
Risking 3 units

BOS ML (+220) vs ORL
Risking 2 units to win 4.4 units

B dub calls em, I follows em. This is a very scary bet knowing Allen and Rondo are both out, but the books just aren't giving BOS enough credit giving them +6 at home. The C's know this is a big game for them, and I expect them to win this with toughness, heart and veteran savvy (big games from Paul and KG). Ya DHoward is going to get his 28+ and 12+ tonight, but the C's manage to scrape together their 3rd scrappy win in 4 games, leaving everything on the court tonight knowing they don't suit up again until Thursday.

[Gudis]

Aw crap, forgot to bet HOU ML. Darn.

[Gudis]

POR -11 (-110) vs SAC
Risking 1 unit

[Gudis]

Results for 1/23/12:

WAS +14 (-110) @ PHI
Risking 2 units.....[-2.2u]

HOU +2.5 (-110) @ MIN
Risking 3 units.....[+3u]

BOS +6 (-110) vs ORL
Risking 3 units.....[+3u]

BOS ML (+220) vs ORL
Risking 2 units to win 4.4 units.....[+4.4u]

POR -11 (-110) vs SAC
Risking 1 unit.....[+1u]

Today's totals: +9.2 units

Season totals: +10.53 units

Overall Record: 17-14
Spread Record: 13-7
Money Line Record: 4-4
Over/Under Record: 0-3

[Gudis]

How are the Knicks 4.5pt favorites in CHA? What am I missing here? Tyrus Thomas' crazy home/away splits ain't gonna be pretty for Melo n crew. Just waiting to buy it at +5 or better. Heyo

[Lost-Cause]

Im digging the Pacers at home -3... A full days rest against BTB Orlando.. Your thoughts?

[Authentic]

its at 5.5

[Gudis]

Im digging the Pacers at home -3... A full days rest against BTB Orlando.. Your thoughts?

I dig IND too. A bet + write up soon to come.

its at 5.5

Its at 6 on sportsbook. I'm going to have to really look into this bet, seems too good to be true.

[Authentic]

No DJ Augustine

[Gudis]

CHA +6 (-110) vs NYK
Risking 3.3 units to win 3

CHA ML (+200) vs NYK
Risking 1 unit to win 2

IND -3 (-110) vs ORL
Risking 1.1 unit to win 1

[Gudis]

Believe it or not, this isn't just an auto-fade knicks play. For whatever reason the bobcats will play "up" to certain competitors. I can't quantify it, but they just bring a higher intensity against certain teams, specifically the Lakers and Knicks. Bobcats have played their best basketball vs the knicks so far this season, splitting two games in MSG. Couple this with the fact NYK has historically had trouble winning in Charlotte (losing 9 of 13) and you have a very favorable match up for the cats. However you would be foolish to underestimate the loss of DJ Augustine, as he does a great job of probing the defense and creating good looks for teammates. I'm pretty high on Kemba, but how much can you expect out of a rookie point guard? That being said, Charlotte still has the pg advantage as well as the speed advantage and Boris Diaw would likely play more minutes in DJ's absence, and Diaw has been a Knick killer in their previous 2 matchups. I bet more if DJ plays, however I still love +6 for CHA as home dogs.