Pacers @ 76ers

[Speedy88]

Anyone have a good outlook on this game. Two very good and often overlooked teams in the East. Right now line is at Phili -4.5. Spencer Hawes who is having a really good year is unsure whether he will play in tomorrow's game due to a strained back.


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[mikea33]

I really think Indiana wins SU.....they are more talented IMO but thats a first glance. Phili is a 5 point favorite for a reason.
under looks look but i dont even know what the total is

[Bic]

I really think Indiana wins SU.....they are more talented IMO but thats a first glance. Phili is a 5 point favorite for a reason.
under looks look but i dont even know what the total is

[Speedy88]

If Hawes is out, I think Indi is definitely the play. W/ Hawes out Phili will be real thin upfront. Indi is very physical inside and they have a ton of size with Hibbert, West, Hansburough and Amnunson. This could give Phili a ton of problems.

[hawley]

Hawes was able to return in their last game if it wasn't a blow out so he should be good to go

[Speedy88]

Hawes was able to return in their last game if it wasn't a blow out so he should be good to go

Didn't watch the game, but the reports I'm reading are that he left early in the 2nd half and didn't return because the game was already a blowout. But it does sound as if he will be able to play.

Should be a great game to watch, couple old college buddies in Holiday and Collison going head to head in a PG battle.

[NB-Ace]

I've been taking Philly every chance I get personally.. they have just as much depth and athleticism on the wings, the best bench 1-2 combo in the league (Thaddeus Young and Lou Williams), some talented bigs with Brand, Vuvecic and Hawes, they play defense and can hit jump shots.. I haven't seen them struggle to generate offense yet (NBA League Pass subscription lol)

Don't get me wrong, I like Indiana.. but their best shooter might play PF (David West), and they go thru these horrific cold stretches in the halfcourt offense where they just can't generate points/knock down a jump shot..

I just think Philly's at least a little better man-for-man (although you could argue West over Brand and Hibbert over Hawes, it's close enough), they're deeper and shoot the rock better.. I see a 7 to 9 point win at home and will be taking the chalk on this one..

[larry040681]

stay away as of now

[PR9]

I just keep betting Philly 2nd quarters and they keep winning.


That's when their bench outscores other teams. Their bench rocks the house.

[t-wizzle]

Take the points. 76ers won't keep blowing teams out. Pacers should have a chance to win this game.

[NB-Ace]

I'm checking out some stats on Hoopdata.. IND is dead last in FG% at the rim and from 16-23 feet... and they rely a ton on successful 3PT shooting.. which PHI defends pretty well..

The more I look at this the more I lean Philly..

[MatI]

I've been taking Philly every chance I get personally.. they have just as much depth and athleticism on the wings, the best bench 1-2 combo in the league (Thaddeus Young and Lou Williams), some talented bigs with Brand, Vuvecic and Hawes, they play defense and can hit jump shots.. I haven't seen them struggle to generate offense yet (NBA League Pass subscription lol)

Don't get me wrong, I like Indiana.. but their best shooter might play PF (David West), and they go thru these horrific cold stretches in the halfcourt offense where they just can't generate points/knock down a jump shot..

I just think Philly's at least a little better man-for-man (although you could argue West over Brand and Hibbert over Hawes, it's close enough), they're deeper and shoot the rock better.. I see a 7 to 9 point win at home and will be taking the chalk on this one..

My thoughts exactly. I've been riding the 76ers as much as possible this year. It's working out well! But Pacers are a decent side, and this might be a good time to sit out, watch and see how it pans out.

[NB-Ace]

I just did a bunch of math to analyze this game.. I think it's useful, I'm just not sure exactly HOW useful lol. Figured I'd share though. All these are averages between one team's offense and the other team's defense. The average pace is just the two teams' paces added together and divided by 2. All stats taken from www.hoopdata.com:


94.2 Average Pace
76ers/Pacers


76ers = 95.4 expected pts (pace adjusted off. eff. vs. IND def. eff.)

Pacers = 90.2 expected pts (pace adjusted off. eff. vs. PHI def. eff.)

(185.6 predicted, 184.5 Vegas [moved up; was 183.5 last night])


Component Shooting %'s:

At Rim:

76ers: 66.4% for 25.5 pts expected (team vs. team avg. methodology from above)
Pacers: 56.6% for 27.3 pts expected (team vs. team avg. methodology from above)

3-9 Feet:

76ers: 44.5% for 10.9 pts expected (team vs. team avg. methodology from above)
Pacers: 40.3% for 10.6 pts expected (team vs. team avg. methodology from above)

10-15 Feet:

76ers: 36.7% for 8.7 pts expected (team vs. team avg. methodology from above)
Pacers: 34.7% for 5.8 pts expected (team vs. team avg. methodology from above)

16-23 Feet:

76ers: 34.8% for 15.5 pts expected (team vs. team avg. methodology from above)
Pacers: 28.4% for 10.7 pts expected (team vs. team avg. methodology from above)

Three Point:

76ers: 35.7% for 18.4 pts expected (team vs. team avg. methodology from above)
Pacers: 35.8% for 16.9 pts expected (team vs. team avg. methodology from above)


Total Composite Analysis:

76ers: 79 pts (+19.9 FT pts) = 98.9 pts expected (team vs. team avg. methodology from above)
Pacers: 71.3 pts (+22.5 FT pts) = 93.8 pts expected (team vs. team avg. methodology from above)

(192.7 alt total)



I'm leaning OVER here and thinking the homecourt advantage helps Philly cover -5 (opened at -4.5). I'm gonna parlay the total and the chalk. Best of luck to you all

[Bbr]

5.5 now

[Bbr]

Got them at 4.5 and going to ride with it. Need hawes too play.

[Bbr]

6 now..... hrmmm

[blowseq]

Danny Granger (food poisoning) will be a game-time decision vs. the 76ers on Monday.

[LUNT101]

The spread has moved to 6 due to Granger possibly being out.

Spencer Hawes is "ready to go."

I am on Philly -5, but I'm hoping Granger plays. He is terribly inefficient and we've seen many times that when teams lose their "star" player they cover the spread due to contributions from other players.

[Bbr]

jus a quick question boys. Ive got phil -4.5 if the line hits 6.5 should i go for the middle??? Whats a normal spread differential to try and go for the middle??

[LUNT101]

That would not be a horrible idea. I have seen a stat that the most common finish in NBA games is 5 points.

[Bbr]

That would not be a horrible idea. I have seen a stat that the most common finish in NBA games is 5 points.

That stat is not surprising. Considering many teams play the foul game towards the end of a match...

[LUNT101]

"George Hill (sore back) is questionable for Monday's game."

This is great news for Philly IMO.

[Bbr]

"George Hill (sore back) is questionable for Monday's game."

This is great news for Philly IMO.

Great for middling opportunity!!

[LUNT101]

Great for middling opportunity!!

Can you elaborate?

[Bbr]

There it is, 6.5 now!

[LUNT101]

Oh I understand. Sorry, sometimes I can be a bit dense. I have Philly locked in at 5 so the "good news" I was talking about was directed to those already backing Philly.

[Bbr]

"George Hill (sore back) is questionable for Monday's game."

This is great news for Philly IMO.

Phil line will keep inflating and i got them at 4.5. Ill try to grab the pacers +7.5 if I am lucky. and hope phil win by 5, 6 or 7 =DD

[LUNT101]

Looks like the spread might rise again. Roy Hibbert added as a Game Time Decision.

https://twitter.com/#!/MikeWellsNBA/status/156415444343992320

Philly is way too deep.

[Bbr]

Looking real good here. Def going to middle i think. 7.5 would be really generous!!

[Future24]

Ouch I took Indiana early...but now it looks like Philly should cover easily.

Will bet on the 2nd quarter like above poster has said to hopefully even out.

[Bbr]

Ouch I took Indiana early...but now it looks like Philly should cover easily.

Will bet on the 2nd quarter like above poster has said to hopefully even out.

GL!

[Bbr]

Pacers +7 now. Any chance this inflates b4 gametime?

[t-wizzle]

Big time steam on Philly this morning. Still like the Pacers.

[IllyPhilly[DOC]]

This game is tricky. 5.5 was making me lean pavers but now 7 makes me love pavers. If granger doesn't play the pavers will cover

[IllyPhilly[DOC]]

This game is tricky. 5.5 was making me lean pavers but now 7 makes me love pavers. If granger doesn't play the pavers will cover

Lol. Pavers=pacers. Dam iphone