Watch out for Wiz tomorrow vs Knickers

[PR9]

First, read article:

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/74...s-only-meeting


Been following sports for many years. Those "player-only" meetings certainly have an effect, and most of the time teams come out of them with an other-worldly performance overachieving for a win in the following game... especially when they're at home.

ps- Knicks are currently receiving more bets tonight than any other team for tomorrow's games:

http://www.thespread.com/nba-basketb...-betting-chart

[Kadinni]

How do you like the over?

I really like the at 6.5, but with the wizards, you never. I will be playing the wizards but i like the over lightly a bit more at 199.

[Speedy88]

PR9 you seem to be pretty on point with all your bets, and I'm loving the Wiz +6.5 (get the free half point so I'll take the +7). Knicks are a disaster right now. I think they'll eventually get it all figured out kind of like the Heat from last year, but for now there is no way that they should be 7 point favorites on the road.

[PR9]

I really like the at 6.5, but with the wizards, you never.

I only placed a bet on the wizards once this season (bet against them many times), and that one bet was 1st half on the back of a double-set vs Boston.. as can be seen in the following thread of my plays that day ( a day I went 16-4 ):

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basketball-betting/1488767-pr9-plays-day-jan-2-2012-a.html

I was going to bet wizards at +13 for that full game, as I felt they would respond and cover after that thrashing by Boston a night earlier in their home-and-home set. Rarely does a team get totally and thoroughly blasted in a home-and-home set, and in every half of the 4 halves.

But instead of the full game wager, I thought the Wiz would play best in the 1st half, and that's exactly what happened as they more than covered the +7 first half spread.. and in fact, the Wiz were ahead of the celtics by 1 at halftime.

I know that the Wiz lost by double-digits since that game in Orlando a couple nights ago, but I prefer that. It forced the players-only meeting further and cemented it for me. Also, keep in mind that the knicks play the following day, the Wizards do not.

This is a "sandwich" home game for the Wizards.. meaning, they play at home when they have a day off before game day, and have a day off "after" game day as well.. Much like the Raptors yesterday when they played at home in a "sandwich" home game vs the Cavs.. and one of the reasons I bet on that game as well.

I'm getting close to a bomb play on this one. Have to check a couple more things out.

[monologue]

Thanks, I was thinking wizards too, NY simply suck so bad.. thanks PR9 for good tips!

[B1AZE]

I seen that article too and thought the same thing. Then seeing NYK on card and thought $$$!

[Rolo1984]

Anyone who has ever played a teamsport knows the effect of such meetings are very very strong if there is a game the next day or so. I think they vcan go far ion this one. Liking the pick

[PR9]

Wizards +7 LOCKED for 10 units. May also make a 1st Q or 1st half play on them. Not sure yet.

In other games, I'm leaning Hornets. They looked GREAT for the first 3 and a half quarters at home the other night vs the Sixers. Eric Gordon was absolutely terrific in his first game back and gives that team a tremendous boost. He could be enough in his 2nd game back after getting his feet wet. As a member on this board knows, I had a $500 ML on the Sixers in that game and knew they'd end their roadtrip with a winning record (of 3-2). The Sixers were very determined to end this long road trip on a high note this year after an abysmal 3-13 start to the season last year. They came on like gangbusters late in the 4th to secure the win and cover.

However, the Hornets did play well, and they are entertaining a Denver team that is not only content with their successful home stand, but are a different team on the road. This could be a spot for a bit of a letdown. The Nuggets may be looking ahead to San Antonio the following day on Saturday. I expect this line to be at around 5 or 5.5 points during the day. It's at 4.5 currently.

The public is also pounding denver at the moment

The Hornets travel to Denver for a Monday night tilt, so if they cover one of them, I think it would be the one tonight at home as the hornets are a better home team than road team, and the nuggets are a better home team than they are a road team. Plus Denver is coming off a huge blowout win. And Hornets just looked like a different (better) team with Gordon in the lineup a couple nights ago.

just a lean for now.

[thebestthereis]

Anyone who has ever played a teamsport knows the effect of such meetings are very very strong if there is a game the next day or so. I think they vcan go far ion this one. Liking the pick

Knicks are the ones needing a meeting

[Love The Action]

I think you are WAY overestimating the ATS-covering effect of a players-only meeting. Do you have any data to back your claims?

Regardless, and without doing all of the requisite homework on this game, I do think the Wiz are the play tonight for basketball reasons and namely matchups. The inside/outside guard quickness of Wall, plus the outside shooting of Young with the inside presence of Blatche and McGee will give the Knicks fits at times tonight. I do lean Washington....not so sure they win because the Knicks have to be ultra-motivated for this game.

Good luck.

[jojo85]

maybe wiz won't go 0-27 in away matches this year

[PR9]

To add to that, good point guard play gives the knicks total fits. It totally discombobulates their defense and they cant guard them. Thy cant defend the penetrations and dishes. and cant defend an offense working off a true PG who knows wtf he is doing out there on the floor.


So this is a GREAT spot for Wall to have a great game and get going.

The knicks dont have a pg either. And thats one of the reasons i laid 10 units on the knicks-lakers game last week (on the lakers). The lakers perform much better against teams that dont have good point guard play - and guard play. Hence their 2 easiest wins of the season against utah and the knicks in blowouts -- two teams with absolutely atrocious PG play. Felton made the lakers look like pylons last night, and they created a lot of offense through it. Their loss against Sac earlier, again the guard play was good enough to beat the lakers.

Any time the lakers face a very poor guard tandem (or very poor PG), lay it down at the betting table, ALL IN on lakers.

The Knickerbonkers (i call them) are similar in this regard.


ps- you can call it an overestimation, but Ive seen player only meeting have an immediate effect far more often than not. If you dont think that emotion - the mental aspect of the game - motivation - a team binding together etc etc doesnt effect the outcome of games then i dont know what to tell you. That doesnt mean the play is 100%. Thats why they call it gambling ;-)

[Love The Action]

ps- you can call it an overestimation, but Ive seen player only meeting have an immediate effect far more often than not. If you dont think that emotion - the mental aspect of the game - motivation - a team binding together etc etc doesnt effect the outcome of games then i dont know what to tell you. That doesnt mean the play is 100%. Thats why they call it gambling ;-)

I'm not saying it doesn't add a motivational angle. What I am saying is that if you data mined teams for the game after having a players only meeting, the ATS record would be around 50/50 with no discernible edge shown from having such meetings.

I agree with the Wizards as a possible play, but I think you are giving too much credence to the players only angle. That is not the main reason for the Wiz being a play, but is just one of many. You have to remember, the Knicks have motivation here too because as you stated in your Knicks thread from the other day -- they are getting beaten up by the fans and newspapers and desperately need a convincing win. I think there solid qualitative/situational angles on both sides....

GL

[PR9]

What I am saying is that if you data mined teams for the game after having a players only meeting, the ATS record would be around 50/50 with no discernible edge shown from having such meetings.

Show me the data. What i read on this subject is it gives the team a tremendous advantage, and I read that the success rate is higher than 50-50.

I remember reading that in an article right after the Heat went 9-8 to start the season last year, the team then had an hour player-only meeting (sorting things out with one another) , then ripped off like 11 road wins in a row... tying the NBA record for most road wins in a calendar month.

after starting 9-8 before the meeting.

I also distinctly remember another team I follow, the leafs (NHL), calling for a team meeting in 2003. They were playing dreadful hockey. After that players only meeting that the captain Mats Sundin called for, they performed to their capabilities IMMEDIATELY going a ridiculous 16-1, or something like that. It was the best 17 game string in the last 30 years for this embarrassing franchise

http://www.tmlforum.net/index.php?topic=5533.0;wap2

[Love The Action]

Show me the data. What i read on this subject is it gives the team a tremendous advantage, and I read that the success rate is higher than 50-50.

I remember reading that in an article right after the Heat went 9-8 to start the season last year, the team then had an hour player-only meeting (sorting things out with one another) , then ripped off like 11 road wins in a row... tying the NBA record for most road wins in a calendar month.

after starting 9-8 before the meeting.

I also distinctly remember another team I follow, the leafs (NHL), calling for a team meeting in 2003. They were playing dreadful hockey. After that players only meeting that the captain Mats Sundin called for, they performed to their capabilities IMMEDIATELY going a ridiculous 16-1, or something like that. It was the best 17 game string in the last 30 years for this embarrassing franchise

http://www.tmlforum.net/index.php?topic=5533.0;wap2

Perhaps I will run a search later, however, you are the one making the claim that this is a profitable angle so I think you should have to support that claim with the data. Not me.

Again, I'm not saying it's a bad angle or a losing angle, I just think that it is one of many reasons why the Wizards are a possible play.

BTW, do you ever sleep bud? You are a hard working guy, I like that.

[PR9]

Perhaps I will run a search later, however, you are the one making the claim that this is a profitable angle so I think you should have to support that claim with the data. Not me.

Again, I'm not saying it's a bad angle or a losing angle, I just think that it is one of many reasons why the Wizards are a possible play.

BTW, do you ever sleep bud? You are a hard working guy, I like that.

I never sleep, thats why I was able to run into that article late one night with the numbers..


too tired to search for that article now though

:cheers 2 u2

[B1AZE]

Sleep is over-rated. lol

I think anyone that is as passionate as some of us are will sacrifice some sleep. I know i do!....Hell i'll wake up to go to the bathroom and check lines on my phone before i fall back asleep.

[Love The Action]

Sleep is over-rated. lol

I think anyone that is as passionate as some of us are will sacrifice some sleep. I know i do!....Hell i'll wake up to go to the bathroom and check lines on my phone before i fall back asleep.

Me too!

I've made many a winning wager at 3 am in the john

[B1AZE]

Me too!

I've made many a winning wager at 3 am in the john

[PR9]

Like Sixers tonight in their home opener.


Probably going to ML it. Along with a 1H or 1Q play with sixers.


Might be going Suns 1Q or 1H as well. Portland is coming off an emotional win & always start slow early then ratchets it up a few notches in the 2nd half..

.

[pacocn]

Me too! I've made many a winning wager at 3 am in the john

Were
you pinching a deuce or taking a leak?

[petermans23]

Great dialoges friends!

I think both PR9 and Love The Action are both very good cappers and follow their thread and their (not always but most of the time) great write ups.

Keep the dialoge going. I am taking a shot tonight with washington spread win but I could only get +6 but took it.

Any of you well informed guys have any opinion on the charlotte bobcats-atlanta hawks game. Latest odds was charlotte +1.

Thanks for your comments!

[PR9]

I know Houston played like garbage for 6 of the last 8 halves on the road. But I may make a small play on them. Dallas looked like total garbage too in minnesota the other night, and again last night in san antonio. Both were garbage road game performances sandwiched with a win against OKC, and also backed by a 2nd win they couldve had AT OKC save for a last second miracle buzzer beater by Durant last week.

Question- Has OKC even covered a spread yet this season . Vegas knows this and almost opens a double-digit line - though heavy bets are going to okc, and understandably so. But even though 80% of the bets are going OKCs way (up to 90% in some places), vegas decided to down the line from -9 to -8.5 instead of going the right way.

okc has been winning by very slim margins, ive witnessed some atrocious defensive play and awareness from that team this season.. and although Houston plays alot better at home than on the road, oklahoma is not far from texas now is it ;-)

just a lean for now. Have to look into things further. If i do bet on it , it will be small on this one

[PR9]

Dammit Bend me over backwards. I hear Eric Gordon is out tonight. F, i loved that Hornets play and spot tonight as i loved what i saw from the hornets vs Philly with him in the lineup.


leaning celtics

[Spartan14745]

Love this thread on the Wizards tonight, will be my only play. GL!

[PR9]

Hawks-Cats OVER 187 - $200. LOCKED


Alot of people PMd me here over the past 48 hours asking for picks. Dont know if I will be able to post again today as i have to head out for the day and will be back about 30 minutes before the games begin. But at that time I will be everywhere looking for line movement and advantages there on about 5 other leans i have. Ill try to post them if time allows

BOL everyone !

[demens]

Wizards problem is the character, selfishness, thuggery and overall stupidity of their young players. Having those goons meet without supervision is hardly a good thing. They were probably arguing about which one of them should shoot the 1st shot of the game.

[No coincidences]

Back the Wiz at your own risk -- and usually peril.

[LeagueCapper]

Pr9 be careful. I love stuff like this and saw this article earlier but after checkin further I saw the Wizards had 2 similar player only meetings last year and got blown out in each game after. The Wizards just arent a good enough team plain and simple. Also the Knicks were callin each other out yesterday and had there own meeting among players as well.

[riffraff24]

Weird. I'm in the bathroom reading this thread! Damn late night nachos.

[riskyProps]

I remember last year when the Clippers and the Suns had their player only meetings. I was quickly betting them against anyone and raking in the wins. They both were good for about a dozen games.

I remember some Wizards players getting into locker room fights about losing. They didn't win but they turned into a covering machine nearly beating Dallas and Miami in the process.

But if the Knicks are having the own meeting this could turn into a low scoring defense battle. LOL!

[Kadinni]

I remember last year when the Clippers and the Suns had their player only meetings. I was quickly betting them against anyone and raking in the wins. They both were good for about a dozen games.

I remember some Wizards players getting into locker room fights about losing. They didn't win but they turned into a covering machine nearly beating Dallas and Miami in the process.

But if the Knicks are having the own meeting this could turn into a low scoring defense battle. LOL!

Knicks have been having trouble scoring. This can be a perfect spot for them to pour on points, i see this game being a track meet and the Wizards keeping it close. Both teams dont really defend the 3 pt. Knicks are among leaders in 3attemps. The Wizards are playing at home, could be a loud crowd with the Knicks and the superstar powers coming into town, so could lead to the Wizards having a hot hand feeding off momentum. ML is worth a shot. Then again, we are talking about a young wizards team that can find a way to lose at the end of the game, which is why i like the points. Wizards have the day off tomorrow and Knicks are back on the first end of a b2b.

Wizards +points and Ototal

[tzMoney]

I am all over the WIZ KIDZ Tonight at +6. This game is taking a lot of lopsided action and the line has gone against the public. Look out! 5 units on the Wizards.

[PR9]

I thought about it more today & I pared down half going with 5 units instead of 10 on this one. Im the type that likes to go with what I KNOW when i bet, and the wiz are still a mystery to say the least. Gotta be responsible. Still like the spot for the reasons mentioned but going to go with my MO (which has been very good to me) and not go overboard. There will be many opportunities this year to nail a semi-bomb that I truly KNOW and am more sure of.

with that said, go wiz ! get dantoni fired. If the wiz come out hard and get a good lead at home on a friday night , the knicks are ripe for the pickin. That team is so dysfunctional theyll fold like a cheap suit

[PR9]

One more thing to mention re this game.

rumors of the knicks openly offering Stoudemire for Howard surfaced today:

http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/01/06/video-report-knicks-willing-to-trade-stoudemire-to-rent-howard/