John Morrison 2011-12 NBA Thread

[Wilba]

No problem.

At 0.25% of roll per unit, it becomes really interesting.
Risking 11.5% of roll on each series is not that bad and ending a season with a 44% growth in your roll is excellent.

Haha this is ridiculous - at .25% playing "7/5" as you claim, you are basically just playing B/C for approx 1 unit each (1.75 on B and 1.25 on C) - this is basically the same as playing the way JM prescribes but skipping the A bet!

And at .5% FOR "7/5" this is even sillier - then you are basically just doing what I've been saying and proving for years is a great method - playing to win 3 units from B bet onward when buying 3 points (3/3 or 3.5/2.5 are basically the same thing)

so pretty much what you have been saying is just a different way of saying what has been done and talked about for the last two seasons..

Please let's stop this thread cluttering and move on from these gibberish 'discussions' which are going nowhere and showing nothing. End of story!

[Maxi_EV]

Haha this is ridiculous - at .25% playing "7/5" as you claim, you are basically just playing B/C for approx 1 unit each (1.75 on B and 1.25 on C) - this is basically the same as playing the way JM prescribes but skipping the A bet!

And at .5% FOR "7/5" this is even sillier - then you are basically just doing what I've been saying and proving for years is a great method - playing to win 3 units from B bet onward when buying 3 points (3/3 or 3.5/2.5 are basically the same thing)

so pretty much what you have been saying is just a different way of saying what has been done and talked about for the last two seasons..

Please let's stop this thread cluttering and move on from these gibberish 'discussions' which are going nowhere and showing nothing. End of story!

Yeah, assuming that during all this time everybody (including JM) took for granted that 1unit = 1%.

I didn't.

[Wilba]

For those who are fooled into thinking that stats without buying points are basically the same as with, here is just one example to show the difference. 3 seasons ago for V1 we had:

with points
A bets: 38-22
B bets: 18-4
C bets: 4-0
Series losses: 0

60-0 on season for +60.0 units (playing to win 1 unit)
(or same series risk playing to win 3.15 units from B gives +69 units on season)

w/out points:
A bets: 30-30
B bets: 17-13
C bets: 7-6
series losses: 6

series loss is only ~ 8.25 units, so 54 wins - (6*8.25) = +4.5 units
but a better comparison would be playing to win 2.5 units on the non buying points as this gives a similar series risk, then you would end up with +13.5 units on the season.

Of course every season is different, and the outcomes do vary, but just wanted to make sure that the new guys understood that buying points makes a significant difference to the success rate.. (And I'm NOT telling people that they should buy points, people should do what ever works best for them. Just providing the facts)

Good luck for tomorrow everyone

[Wilba]

Maxi - a 'unit' is arbitrary unless you assign it a % of your bankroll. 1% is the standard unit, otherwise calling a unit a unit means nothing. Anyway, fair enough, let's move on

[Maxi_EV]

Maxi - a 'unit' is arbitrary unless you assign it a % of your bankroll. 1% is the standard unit, otherwise calling a unit a unit means nothing. Anyway, fair enough, let's move on

Come on...

a unit is a unit.

Then you can assign what ever % of your roll to it.
If you are playing only one system it will be much more than if you are on 2 or 3 systems.

I play 3 systems and my units size are different on each of them BASED ON HOW THE SYSTEMS BEHAVE IN THE PAST. (large swings or more consistent winnings)

We will move on, but before:

If you think that 0.25% is ridiculous because you think that it is merely like playing standard JM for 1 unit and skipping the A bet...

B bet: to win 1.75 % of roll. ( THAT IS 75% MORE!!!!!)
C bet: to win 1.25 % of roll. ( THAT IS 25% MORE !!!! )

Let's take a 59-3 run with buying pts @ 1unit = 1% (with 55% of the 59 wins on B and 45% on C)

With standard JM: 37.64 units = 37.64 % of roll growth
With 7/5 RATIO at 0.25% : 220.53 units = 55.13 % of roll growth

A difference of 17.49% in your bankroll!!!

If this is ridiculous for you it isn't for me.

Wall Street brokers would kill their moms for a 17.5% edge. ( but they already did it for 5%)

Poker players would kill their moms for a 17.5 % edge. (but they already did it when they announce her they were quitting school)

Blackajck players would kill their moms for a 2% edge. ( but they can't, they don't have a place to sleep at night)

Only sports betters would spit on a 17.5% edge and call it "ridiculous"...

BOL

[Nino7]

lol maxi

[thelimit0310]

Bugs that merely means that if you want to play Chicago tonight as an unofficial series you can. I added in those plays for people who wanted to play more games this season due to it being a shortened one. They are qualifying JM series but take place during the same road trip as their previous official series.

[thelimit0310]

JM Feb 8

V3 MIAMI -.5 @ Orlando (A)
V3 DALLAS * @ Denver (B)

All official plays are posted with 3 points bought. ML will not be taken on favorites greater than -3.

[Nino7]

pick the money line on miami

[Maxi_EV]

Wallco,

Is that what you call no system plays ?

[J.M. Disciple]

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2011-12 System to date: 29-1 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: +10.55 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 1 (-8.45 units)

v1 Plays
(A) 22-9
(B) 3-6
(C) 2-4
(D) 2-1

V2 Plays
In production


There are no system plays for (2/8/12):
#30 Chicago @ New Orleans (**) (D) (8:05 pm EST)
#32 Dallas (**) @ Denver (A) (9:05 pm EST)
#33 Indiana @ Atlanta (M/L) (A) 7:35 pm EST)
#34 Dallas @ Denver (**) (A) (9:05 pm EST)
#35 Milwaukee (M/L) @ Toronto (A) (7:05 pm EST)


We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a zero point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day, if the lines change, but it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from my post. On occasion, we will have plays that go head-head. The system will grade ALL bets, regardless of opponents, how you wish to play these games is your choice.

yOU MIGHT want to edit your post a little bit.....................
""""""""""""There are no system plays for (2/8/12): """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""


Followed by 4 plays....

[J.M. Disciple]

with points
A bets: 38-22
B bets: 18-4
C bets: 4-0
Series losses: 0

60-0 on season for +60.0 units (playing to win 1 unit)
(or same series risk playing to win 3.15 units from B gives +69 units on season)

w/out points:
A bets: 30-30
B bets: 17-13
C bets: 7-6
series losses: 6


1-3-5

A: 1.1 - 1
B: 4.51 - 4.1
C: 11.67 - 10.61

1-3-5 players make:
A = -3u
B = 69.7u - 58.63 = 11.07
C= 81.69 - 70.02 = 11.67

@ -110 odds
+19.74u made that season.


Beginning to think B&C might just be the best way then all of this retesting on other strategies. B&C might just take the cake...

GL Today GENTS

[BSUWADDY]

yOU MIGHT want to edit your post a little bit.....................
""""""""""""There are no system plays for (2/8/12): """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""


Followed by 4 plays....

I'm confused--we've got DAL vs DEN and we are to play on both? Just want to make sure. I've been following this year, and perhaps this comes up on a semi-regular basis but I don't remember it.

So the play is take the points with the dog and play the fave on the ML? Thanks!

[J.M. Disciple]

I'm confused--we've got DAL vs DEN and we are to play on both? Just want to make sure. I've been following this year, and perhaps this comes up on a semi-regular basis but I don't remember it.

So the play is take the points with the dog and play the fave on the ML? Thanks!

correct

[Nino7]

...

[Wilba]

JMD - you can't base any decisions one one season's stats...

Maxi - lol!

[Wilba]

ps JMD I do actually agree with you in what you said (you know that's the way that I think is best, B/C w/ points), but I'm just saying that you can't base your belief on one season's stats only as one season means very little on its own..

[Wallco99]

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2011-12 System to date: 29-1 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: +10.55 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 1 (-8.45 units)

v1 Plays
(A) 22-9
(B) 3-6
(C) 2-4
(D) 2-1

V2 Plays
In production


Games for (2/8/12):
#30 Chicago @ New Orleans (+10) (D) (8:05 pm EST)
#32 Dallas (+1) @ Denver (A) (9:05 pm EST)
#33 Indiana @ Atlanta (M/L) (A) 7:35 pm EST)
#34 Dallas @ Denver (M/L) (A) (9:05 pm EST)
#35 Milwaukee (M/L) @ Toronto (A) (7:05 pm EST)

** I would suggest skipping the Dallas/Denver (A) bets, and picking up the loser on the (B) bet, for the normal (B) bet amount.


We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a zero point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day, if the lines change, but it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from my post. On occasion, we will have plays that go head-head. The system will grade ALL bets, regardless of opponents, how you wish to play these games is your choice.

[Wallco99]

I'm confused--we've got DAL vs DEN and we are to play on both? Just want to make sure. I've been following this year, and perhaps this comes up on a semi-regular basis but I don't remember it.

So the play is take the points with the dog and play the fave on the ML? Thanks!

Normally, but since it is only a 1 point line, I would just skip both bets and pick up the (B).

[1gamer]

V3 Dallas +3 (B) 29.45 to win 19 units. 2 points buy -155
Play reinstated from Chase N.O. Series.

JM/Chase Modified Parlay

V1 Miami -4 (A) -4
C1 Atlanta -3.5 (A) -3.5
C1 Milwaukee -1.5 (A)-1.5

1 to win 6 units

BOL tonite

[Wallco99]

Wallco,

Is that what you call no system plays ?

OOPS!

[Wallco99]

V3 Dallas +3 (B) 29.45 to win 19 units. 2 points buy -155
Play reinstated from Chase N.O. Series.

JM/Chase Modified Parlay

V1 Miami -4 (A) -4
C1 Atlanta -3.5 (A) -3.5
C1 Milwaukee -1.5 (A)-1.5

1 to win 6 units

BOL tonite

You're nuts!

[stickbit]

You're nuts!

I second that!

[xgame]

New Orleans

[ClevelandNextYr]

Hornets are a joke

[stevex]

I say it time and time again, but ANY system you play has its ups and downs. Nothing is perfect and next year I will probably be jumping on the Wallco NBA System (am using other systems and don't want to many at once). Use proper money management and you'll be fine fellas.

[SkivChef]

[ChiLLx]

Another D bet loss.

[GGPLAYER]

Just disgusting. Chi plays it's 6th road game in a row and pounds NO who have now lost 7 ATS in a row?? 67 pts???!?! Where is the effort? For me this is the last straw. Too many series losing this year. I try year after year and it always ends up the same...big hits to my roll. I have now lost on Wallco's, JM and SBS plays. Started my own thread just doing NCAA dog's and I'm up 13 units in 3 weeks coming into tonight. A loss or two there does not cripple me like it does here and it's just not worth it to me anymore. Gook luck guys.

[nitsuj378]

Good money management prevails in this spot. A series loss is no big deal. On to the next.

[thelimit0310]

I don't understand the frustration here. You know how many units a loss costs, it's the same every single loss. So adjust your unit size to take it! Or at least so you can take 2 losses without it ruining your roll...

[J.M. Disciple]

ps JMD I do actually agree with you in what you said (you know that's the way that I think is best, B/C w/ points), but I'm just saying that you can't base your belief on one season's stats only as one season means very little on its own..

I posted it more because i was thinking out loud and wanted to get a quick view of the comparison for that season. Wasn't trying to persuade any one in any direction. Just thinking out loud....

[J.M. Disciple]

Dallas with the WIN

[J.M. Disciple]

V3 Dallas +3 (B) 29.45 to win 19 units. 2 points buy -155
Play reinstated from Chase N.O. Series.

JM/Chase Modified Parlay

V1 Miami -4 (A) -4
C1 Atlanta -3.5 (A) -3.5
C1 Milwaukee -1.5 (A)-1.5

1 to win 6 units

BOL tonite

So parlay lost because of Mia....
But Dallas wins so you are up 18 units on the night?

[J.M. Disciple]

Who has the balls to continue to bet on Hornets?

How often does a team actually lose 10 straight ATS?

Bet to win 5 units on A and chase over next 3 games?

Just throwing it out there and rambling ok this my last post. GOod night fellas.

jMd