John Morrison 2011-12 NBA Thread

[Wilba]

I finished testing the 1st quarter Overs for all of March breaking down the time frames of 7pm, 8pm, 9pm, and 10pm allowing 1 hour gaps for each so there is plenty of time to place your bets and adjust your labby lines. Here are the results:

62wins - 48losses - 2 push
56% win rate!!!
Profit: +36units (18lines cleared)
Inplay: 4units.
*technically 32units since 4 units are in play still on top of your starting line.

Not a bad month with the biggest bet of the month being around 8 units only This is just a testing phase and I do not suggest anyone just jump straight into this, but it is looking to be very profitable so far. As on3 suggested in the past I would do it for maybe 1 unit per labby line or what i was doing in my testing is 2 units per line.

I will continue my research with previous months another day. I am using

http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-odds/nba-basketball/merged/1st-quarter/?date=20120307

our very own site to do the back testing for this. If you click on the little "I" next to the game you will see the box score which makes testing this a little easier then what I was doing before.

I know some of you do not like to use other peoples numbers, so go ahead and test it out for yourself and please share the results with all of us of the profits.

Rules
Break it down into 1 hour time frames between games.
Bet on the highest Total of that time frame to go Over!
use 2 strike labby with proper bankroll management.

Good Luck
JMD

PS
Nice win on Memphis tonight. I believe 7/5 is almost in the positive now since it has been published on this forum.

Hey JM - not trying to give you a hard time here, just want to make sure that you understand what you are suggesting in this post. You do realize that all you are doing here is an infinite chase on a coin flip at odds of less than +100? (Chase = increasing stakes after each loss.) Do you also realize that if you are coin flip chasing at -110 odds that it is a statistical FACT that you will eventually go bust? You have no edge at all on the book, under/over will always even out to 50/50 % wise over the long run.

Also I'm sure that you already knew this (then again it appears that you did not know as you are posting a sample of 110 games!) but a sample of less than 1,000 games means less than nothing. In the last 147 NBA games, if you bet ATS on the team with the alphabetically lower placed team name (closest to 'A') then you would have gone 99-48, 67%. Clearly this does not mean that it is a good idea to bet every team with an alphabetically lower placed team name!

[Wallco99]

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2011-12 System to date: 58-2 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: +20.71 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 1 (-8.26 units)

(3/31/12):
#61 Cleveland (+11½) (C) - Loss

v1 Plays
(A) 36-25
(B) 10-15
(C) 9-6
(D) 3-2

V2 Plays
In production


There are no system plays for (4/1/12):
#61 Resumes (D) on 4/3/12


We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a zero point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day, if the lines change, but it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from my post. On occasion, we will have plays that go head-head. The system will grade ALL bets, regardless of opponents, how you wish to play these games is your choice.

[casdio]

Walco, it's D, not B

[thelimit0310]

V3 CHARLOTTE +10.5 @ Detroit (A) WIN

Results Per Version


Version 1
A: 18-8
B: 5-3
C: 3-0


Version 2
A: 7-4-1
B: 2-3
C: 2-1
NYK 3/4-3/7 (A bet push)


Version 3
A: 39-20
B: 13-7
C: 3-4
DET 1/28-1/31
DAL 3/8-3/10
LAC 3/20-3/22
MEM 3/20-3/24


Totals
A: 64-32-1
B: 20-13
C: 8-5

April 1st

V3 GOLDEN ST +13 @ LA Lakers (A)

[thelimit0310]

The posted record is accurate and includes games that I was not able to post for.

Also, great job cashing in another 7/5 bet with Memphis!! 1gamer you should have a little more faith

Very excited for the season premiere of Game of Thrones tonight

[onacloud]

Walco, it's D, not B

Why do you point out an obvious typo?

I don't understand you people picking at everything little thing for no reason.

[1gamer]

The posted record is accurate and includes games that I was not able to post for.

Also, great job cashing in another 7/5 bet with Memphis!! 1gamer you should have a little more faith

Very excited for the season premiere of Game of Thrones tonight

Very true Limit...Good win for you guys last night on Memphis...I'm "all in" with V3 the rest of the way. No sense in stopping now.

Preemptive Chase -110

Orlando ML -200 5 Dimes

[petters72]

There is no need for me to know the results after the game. Wish someone could post the game before it started so I could make a bet.

[Wallco99]

Walco, it's D, not B

So it is. Thank you. Although, I am pretty sure it would have been corrected by April 3.

[alexknyc]

There is no need for me to know the results after the game. Wish someone could post the game before it started so I could make a bet.

Seriously? JM bets aren't rocket science. Besides, the schedule has been posted at least twice in the last week or so. If you want to be spoon-fed, you have no right to complain when those who have been courteous enough to do so find they have other things to do every now and then.

[J.M. Disciple]

Hey JM - not trying to give you a hard time here, just want to make sure that you understand what you are suggesting in this post. You do realize that all you are doing here is an infinite chase on a coin flip at odds of less than +100? (Chase = increasing stakes after each loss.) Do you also realize that if you are coin flip chasing at -110 odds that it is a statistical FACT that you will eventually go bust? You have no edge at all on the book, under/over will always even out to 50/50 % wise over the long run.

Also I'm sure that you already knew this (then again it appears that you did not know as you are posting a sample of 110 games!) but a sample of less than 1,000 games means less than nothing. In the last 147 NBA games, if you bet ATS on the team with the alphabetically lower placed team name (closest to 'A') then you would have gone 99-48, 67%. Clearly this does not mean that it is a good idea to bet every team with an alphabetically lower placed team name!

As it goes for most spreads its 50/50 long run but we still find a way to win. I know the labby will have its ups and downs and bad stretches as well as heaters. I do not think its a scientific fact that you will go bust playing 50/50 with the labby when it requires a 34% win percentage to show a profit; of course that is with really good bankroll management.

Again this is just a testing phase and want to see how it turns out. On3 came up with the idea, i am just doing some back testing on it to see if it would show a profit or not (which I am sure it will). Similar to the MLB thread where they labbied yes/no for the 1st inning and showed a nice profit; i have similar expectations for this one. The one thing with them is that with the "NO" they had really high juice on some of those games and over a bad stretch dropped like 100 units or some thing. I am well aware of this and thats why on3 suggested if you do decide to play it prior to back test being published then only do it for like .25 units, so if its fail it is only a small loss.

Over my small sample I did not suggest anyone jump on board and try to bust the books right away, just a thought cause some people also back test this stuff on their own. I will try and finish back testing this season by end of the day or tomorrow. Thanks for your concern though. Your stats and analysis are always appreciated.

JMD

[Kev the Brit]

Boy am I glad the Bobbies won their V3 A bet last night. I wouldn't want to chase 3 units on the B & C with them.

Welcome back thelimit0310. It seems that there are some people who missed your spoon.

Kev

[casdio]

Boy am I glad the Bobbies won their V3 A bet last night. I wouldn't want to chase 3 units on the B & C with them.

Welcome back thelimit0310. It seems that there are some people who missed your spoon.

Kev

I think Bobcats didn't lose any of their chase until now. At least since January they didn't

[NZT-48]

u get pts just for your avator sir

[NZT-48]

Thank you for unsolicited testimonial sir and speaking when I wasnt even talking to you or mention your name and I make valid pts which is what this thread is for

Its not for you to berate someone b/c you didnt like what he said or how he said it......get over youself and leave me be no no nevermind your blocked sir and that goes to anyone else on here that talks smack like that when none of my posts have been harsh or unwarranted and make complete and total sense.....

And a nomination by one of the biggest clowns going and his s hitty systems he's just pissed b/c I have had him on block for mos. and I said that in an earlier post....trying playing his baseball system folks if you dont believe me it sucks a ss......just go to last yrs thread for JM MLB where he did nothing but clog up that damn thread with his s hitty system and got pissed about when people said it was crap it was funny lol

i) your posts clutter up the thread more than anyone elses because they are so horrible to read due to the fact you never learnt how to use punctuation in school.. sentences roll on into other sentences so that you dont know where one ends and where the next one starts wow can you see from my example how utterly crap this is to read i can hardly read it back to myself even though i typed it b/c i dont know how to use capital letters or apostrophes or any punctuation at all wow typing like this actually makes me feel like im retarded

ii) If you want to JM plays posted why don't you do it yourself?

"clean it up folks"

I know I was just giving you a hard time, but in all seriousness I think you should look at cleaning up your own posts before suggesting that other people clean the thread up.

[J.M. Disciple]

dont say anything or even bother responding to anyone unless its constructive. If nothing nice to say then dont say nothing at all. Everyone is taking every thing so personal in this thread. Lets get back to making money. If some one does say some thing that bashes one of the systems in here, just ignore them and let the numbers speak for themselves.

Were all here to make money, so lets stop b"i"tching about all the non sense.

Good luck all on the final month of nba i believe.

Also Even interested in flat betting once in a while I suggest flat betting against the lakers when they are favored double digits! I just looked over the past 5 years and they are losing the double digits spreads at a 63% rate! If you did abc chase though you would have 1 loss. I believe the record was 49wins and 28 losses flat betting.

OK thats all for tonight
good night gents.
JMD

[Wallco99]

2 systems currently +110 units = shitty. I'll take that shit any day!

[CrazyCarl]

u get pts just for your avator sir

Thanks haha. Could help a bit, trying to gamble in the SBR book with 30 points is frustrating.

[Wallco99]

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2011-12 System to date: 58-2 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: +20.71 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 1 (-8.26 units)

v1 Plays
(A) 36-25
(B) 10-15
(C) 9-6
(D) 3-2

V2 Plays
In production


Games for (4/2/12):
#61 Resumes (D) on 4/3/12
#62 Utah (+2) @ Portland (A) (10:05 pm EDT)


We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a zero point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day, if the lines change, but it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from my post. On occasion, we will have plays that go head-head. The system will grade ALL bets, regardless of opponents, how you wish to play these games is your choice.

[thelimit0310]

JM April 1st

V3 GOLDEN ST +13 @ LA Lakers (A) WIN

JM APR 2

V3 HOUSTON +11 @ Chicago (A)

[NZT-48]

your welcome sir .....I tried to give you more but it said I couldnt for now dont know why....if more people knew what Ron Paul was all about and became President I wouldnt need this forum b/c gambling would be 100% legal online and off....for those of you in the US if you dont vote or didnt vote for Ron Paul during the GOP primaries then u just dont get it

Thanks haha. Could help a bit, trying to gamble in the SBR book with 30 points is frustrating.

[CrazyCarl]

your welcome sir .....I tried to give you more but it said I couldnt for now dont know why....if more people knew what Ron Paul was all about and became President I wouldnt need this forum b/c gambling would be 100% legal online and off....for those of you in the US if you dont vote or didnt vote for Ron Paul during the GOP primaries then u just dont get it

You can't gamble online? I mean, I know the laws are sort of hazy about the issue, but I figured most people here ignored it.

Yeah, I'm surprised that more people here don't like him. My guess is that the majority are apathetic about politics and think that none of them are really worth listening to. Which, for the most part, I would agree with.

[NZT-48]

well a long story short is if they understand what Ron Paul represents and re-estbalishing our true liberties under the Constitution....we wouldnt have nearly the issues we do today.....and one minor real world issue is making people in the US not feel like thugs or villians b/c they do online gambling its complete and utter BS for sure

You can't gamble online? I mean, I know the laws are sort of hazy about the issue, but I figured most people here ignored it.

Yeah, I'm surprised that more people here don't like him. My guess is that the majority are apathetic about politics and think that none of them are really worth listening to. Which, for the most part, I would agree with.

[CrazyCarl]

By the way some guy gave me 125 points last night for getting a certain # post in a giveaway thread, so I've got enough to work with now. I appreciate it, though.

[J.M. Disciple]

By the way some guy gave me 125 points last night for getting a certain # post in a giveaway thread, so I've got enough to work with now. I appreciate it, though.

Labby your SBR points.

[CrazyCarl]

Labby your SBR points.

Not sure if joking.

[Wallco99]

Not sure if joking.

Believe me, he's not!

[Wallco99]

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2011-12 System to date: 59-2 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: +21.71 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 1 (-8.26 units)

(4/2/12):
#62 Utah (+2) (A) - Win

v1 Plays
(A) 37-25
(B) 10-15
(C) 9-6
(D) 3-2

V2 Plays
In production


Games for (4/3/12):
#61 San Antonio @ Cleveland (+9) (D) (7:05 pm EDT)
#63 Orlando (M/L) @ Detroit (A) (7:35 pm EDT)


We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a zero point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day, if the lines change, but it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from my post. On occasion, we will have plays that go head-head. The system will grade ALL bets, regardless of opponents, how you wish to play these games is your choice.

[stickbit]

Not sure if joking.

You should ...I do it. Just run it like you do with real money.

[onacloud]

Kyrie still game time decision and Bookmaker opened @ +9 no one else has released line yet

[lawalahmed]

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2011-12 System to date: 59-2 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: +21.71 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 1 (-8.26 units)

(4/2/12):
#62 Utah (+2) (A) - Win

v1 Plays
(A) 37-25
(B) 10-15
(C) 9-6
(D) 3-2

V2 Plays
In production


Games for (4/3/12):
#61 San Antonio @ Cleveland (**) (D) (7:05 pm EDT)
#63 Orlando (**) @ Detroit (A) (7:35 pm EDT)

** Denotes line not available at time of post


We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a zero point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day, if the lines change, but it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from my post. On occasion, we will have plays that go head-head. The system will grade ALL bets, regardless of opponents, how you wish to play these games is your choice.

Little statistic to support your D bet tonight, Below:

Play Against - Favorites of 10 or more points (SAN ANTONIO) after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points, tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days
59-26 since 1997. ( 69.4% 30.4 units )
2-1 this year. ( 66.7% 0.9 units )

Current Spread for Cleveland is 9.5, I will suggest to you to try to buy half point or one point if it stay this way(below double digit), after-all is not money line where you go for crazy odd...

I dont chase again but joining D bet will not be bad idea

GL

[CrazyCarl]

You should ...I do it. Just run it like you do with real money.

I've yet to run a labby line. Still need to figure out how the buggers work.

[thelimit0310]

JM APR 2

V3 HOUSTON +11 @ Chicago (A) WIN

JM APR 3

V3 PHOENIX +0.5 @ Sacramento (A)

[Wallco99]

Little statistic to support your D bet tonight, Below:

Play Against - Favorites of 10 or more points (SAN ANTONIO) after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points, tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days
59-26 since 1997. ( 69.4% 30.4 units )
2-1 this year. ( 66.7% 0.9 units )

Current Spread for Cleveland is 9.5, I will suggest to you to try to buy half point or one point if it stay this way(below double digit), after-all is not money line where you go for crazy odd...

I dont chase again but joining D bet will not be bad idea

GL

Hey, thanks for the info. Good luck all.

[Wallco99]

I've yet to run a labby line. Still need to figure out how the buggers work.

OH NO!!!! You didn't just say that, did you? Pandora's running wild now.