John Morrison 2011-12 NBA Thread

[eeenvy]

Hey Wallco, Toronto is just +5 in most books.

[GGPLAYER]

Yes. We only had 1 loss (Dallas)

Don't you lose money if it goes to a C bet? I think most people chased NYK too and last night has to really put a dent on it. Plus JM seems to avg a loss every few weeks now. It's frustrating to claw back and then have it all taken away so quickly. I read a lot of smart ass comments about betting all the A games but if you stuck to it with every series and bought the 3 points is'nt it about 18 units lost per series (or is it more?) 18 x 4 = 72 units lost. There has only been 60 series won. No way JM plays can be turning a profit. I've pretty much just been doing B/C with only buying 2 pts and I know I'm getting hit pretty hard myself. This stupid shortened season and wacky schedule has really made it a tough year to chase.

[thelimit0310]

Don't you lose money if it goes to a C bet? I think most people chased NYK too and last night has to really put a dent on it. Plus JM seems to avg a loss every few weeks now. It's frustrating to claw back and then have it all taken away so quickly. I read a lot of smart ass comments about betting all the A games but if you stuck to it with every series and bought the 3 points is'nt it about 18 units lost per series (or is it more?) 18 x 4 = 72 units lost. There has only been 60 series won. No way JM plays can be turning a profit. I've pretty much just been doing B/C with only buying 2 pts and I know I'm getting hit pretty hard myself. This stupid shortened season and wacky schedule has really made it a tough year to chase.

Are you speaking about the 7/5 method? Most people chased the NYK series? Most people completely disobeyed the rules laid out? I find that highly doubtful; I know some people took a crack at it thinking the .5 buffer wasn't needed or whatever the reason, and that filter's value was shown to them. But I would be surprised if most people took that leap when I noted many times that the filter is in place because plays like that could end badly, which it did. As for clawing back, you need only 3.5 wins for every loss, no arduous climb back needed - as opposed to 18 wins for every loss using a more traditional approach.

The loss last night with the Clippers marks loss #3 for 7/5 for the season, the method for the season is still up almost +100 units. Up until last nights loss it was over +100 units. No way JM Plays can be turning a profit? I don't think we're playing the same season....

I apologize if you were just venting in general, but if you were speaking out against 7/5 your reasons for doing so are misinformed.

[thelimit0310]

JM MAR 22

V3 LA CLIPPERS -.5 @ New Orleans (C) : 7/5 @ -3.5 LOSS
V3 MEMPHIS +2@ Portland (B) : 7/5 @ -1 LOSS

Results Per Version


Version 1
A: 17-7
B: 3-3
C: 3-0


Version 2
A: 7-4-1
B: 2-3
C: 2-1
NYK 3/4-3/7 (A bet push)


Version 3
A: 36-18
B: 11-6
C: 2-3
DET 1/28-1/31
DAL 3/8-3/10
LAC 3/20-3/22


Totals
A: 60-29-1
B: 16-12
C: 7-4

JM MAR 23


V3 MIAMI -5.5 @ Detroit (A)
V3 DENVER +4.5 @ Utah (A)

[keemosabi]

Isn't Memphis a JM play today?

[stickbit]

Isn't Memphis a JM play today?

They don't play today....they go up against a pissed off LAC team tomorrow.

[J.M. Disciple]

Are you speaking about the 7/5 method? Most people chased the NYK series? Most people completely disobeyed the rules laid out? I find that highly doubtful; I know some people took a crack at it thinking the .5 buffer wasn't needed or whatever the reason, and that filter's value was shown to them. But I would be surprised if most people took that leap when I noted many times that the filter is in place because plays like that could end badly, which it did. As for clawing back, you need only 3.5 wins for every loss, no arduous climb back needed - as opposed to 18 wins for every loss using a more traditional approach.

The loss last night with the Clippers marks loss #3 for 7/5 for the season, the method for the season is still up almost +100 units. Up until last nights loss it was over +100 units. No way JM Plays can be turning a profit? I don't think we're playing the same season....

I apologize if you were just venting in general, but if you were speaking out against 7/5 your reasons for doing so are misinformed.

Since he was talking about buying points I do not think he was referrin to 7/5. Also with the 7/5 yes its up 100+ units this season; however, people on this forum barely started betting on it 6 or 7 series ago. So you have what 4 wins and 2 losses now? maybe down a little since everyone started betting on it.

I seriously doubt everyone started betting 7/5 at the beginning of the sesaon when we did not know about it.

GOod luck today.


To other guy:
MEMphis plays tomorrow at 3pm et. Should be a good game vs clips

[keemosabi]

They don't play today....they go up against a pissed off LAC team tomorrow.

MEMphis plays tomorrow at 3pm et. Should be a good game vs clips

My bad, I looked at Saturday's schedule.

[Wallco99]

Hey Wallco, Toronto is just +5 in most books.

What's your point?

[GGPLAYER]

Since he was talking about buying points I do not think he was referrin to 7/5. Also with the 7/5 yes its up 100+ units this season; however, people on this forum barely started betting on it 6 or 7 series ago. So you have what 4 wins and 2 losses now? maybe down a little since everyone started betting on it.

I seriously doubt everyone started betting 7/5 at the beginning of the sesaon when we did not know about it.

GOod luck today.


To other guy:
MEMphis plays tomorrow at 3pm et. Should be a good game vs clips

Yeah I sort of mixed up the 2 into one thought and general venting. I'm not knocking the 7/5 method.....the problem is when most people started. I am more down on Traditional JM plays with the 4 loss's and the short season. I like your 7/5 over the long haul and from what I have seen it's the maybe the most profitable.

Since the Denver series what are the Units +/- for 7/5?

[juice050]

saw the early line on clipps and memphis.. clips by 2.5 should interesting on this c bet. hope its not another lost for jm.

[DustyDiamond]

Walco, is it safe to assume if I can't get the +8 for Toronto than I should skip the bet? (I can only get 5.5)

[onacloud]

Hey Wallco, Toronto is just +5 in most books.

What's your point?

When was the line ever +8?

5 Dimes & Pinnacle opened at +5 I don't see the line ever going past 6 in any book?

[Wallco99]

When was the line ever +8?

5 Dimes & Pinnacle opened at +5 I don't see the line ever going past 6 in any book?

Actually, I had the old switcheroo on. At 5:30 AM, N.J was +8 and Toronto was +5.5. I had the lines backwards. Sorry, no harm done.

[Wallco99]

Walco, is it safe to assume if I can't get the +8 for Toronto than I should skip the bet? (I can only get 5.5)

Chase 110 are played no matter what. The lines posted are the lines available at the time of my post. It is up to each bettor to get the best line possible, but results are based on closing lines of the site I use, which everone should know what that is by now.

[J.M. Disciple]

saw the early line on clipps and memphis.. clips by 2.5 should interesting on this c bet. hope its not another lost for jm.

This was yesterdays play...

[Wallco99]

This was yesterdays play...

NO, it's tomorrow's play!

[thelimit0310]

Yeah I sort of mixed up the 2 into one thought and general venting. I'm not knocking the 7/5 method.....the problem is when most people started. I am more down on Traditional JM plays with the 4 loss's and the short season. I like your 7/5 over the long haul and from what I have seen it's the maybe the most profitable.

I can understand this. As I said I was only trying to defend the 7/5 because overall it is doing very well but in the short time since it has been implemented here it may only be just getting started. Still, if anyone goes negative from the 7/5 since its implementation I will not be to blame as I mentioned several times that starting mid season could end badly because your missing out on basically an 80 unit cushion starting so late.

[Hunner24]

Since the Denver series what are the Units +/- for 7/5?

Since thelimit's big post outlining the strategy, the method is -7.34units after yesterday's loss. The B bet is 3-5 and the C bet is 3-2 after 8 finished series. There is a pending C bet, so after tomorrow the method will either be -2.34u or -29.01u since the post.

Since the beginning of the year, however, the 7/5 method is +88.99u, and either +93.99u or +67.32u after tomorrow's bet.

[on3]

Ugh, njn. I hate that BS foul at the end of games.

[kdavis]

I think I'm done with V3 games. These games seem to be a bankroll killer. I may do some back testing on just the V3 series and see how they have done over the years. I do know that the SPORTS-BET-WIN site stopped playing these games last year because of all the V3 series losses. He considered it a total failure.

[J.M. Disciple]

Thunder vs MIn tonight anyone see it? Crazy DOUBLE OT game. Will surely be on Sports center with 3 players going 40+ (40, 45, and 51 for love!)

[thelimit0310]

JM MAR 23

V3 MIAMI -5.5 @ Detroit (A) WIN
V3 DENVER +4.5 @ Utah (A) LOSS

JM MAR 24

V3 MEMPHIS +5 @ LA Clippers (C) : 7/5 +2
V3 DETROIT * @ New York (A) (* Line not available at time of play post)

[Wallco99]

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2011-12 System to date: 53-2 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: +15.71 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 1 (-5.30 units)

(3/23/12):
#55 New Jersey (+7) (B) - Loss
#56 Toronto (+5½) (A) - Win

v1 Plays
(A) 33-23
(B) 9-14
(C) 8-5
(D) 3-2

V2 Plays
In production


Games for (3/23/12):
#55 Charlotte @ New Jersey (M/L) (C) (7:35 pm EST)
#57 Memphis @ L.A. Clippers (M/L) (A) (3:05 pm EST)


We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a zero point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day, if the lines change, but it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from my post. On occasion, we will have plays that go head-head. The system will grade ALL bets, regardless of opponents, how you wish to play these games is your choice.

[cmdyrds]

I think I'm done with V3 games. These games seem to be a bankroll killer. I may do some back testing on just the V3 series and see how they have done over the years. I do know that the SPORTS-BET-WIN site stopped playing these games last year because of all the V3 series losses. He considered it a total failure.

Version 1	Version 2	Version 3	Totals
2011/2012:	2011/2012:	2011/2012:
2010/2011: 58-3	2010/201 30-1	2010/201: 67-3	155-7
2009/2010: 47-2	2009/2010: 28-0	2009/2010: 67-2	142-4
2008/2009: 61-0	2008/2009: 29-0	2008/2009: 59-1	149-1
2007/2008: 56-2	2007/2008: 27-0	2007/2008: 63-1	146-3
2006/2007: 55-2	2006/2007: 23-0	2006/2007: 63-3	141-5
2005/2006: 55-2	2005/2006: 32-1	2005/2006: 63-7	150-10
2004/2005: 59-2	2004/2005: 30-2	2004/2005: 64-1	153-5

[GGPLAYER]

Thank you guys for all the time and effort you put into this.

If I'm diciplined enough and can remember maybe next year I'll only play the V2 bets. Produce the least plays but almost is perfect year after year.

[GGPLAYER]

I can understand this. As I said I was only trying to defend the 7/5 because overall it is doing very well but in the short time since it has been implemented here it may only be just getting started. Still, if anyone goes negative from the 7/5 since its implementation I will not be to blame as I mentioned several times that starting mid season could end badly because your missing out on basically an 80 unit cushion starting so late.

I certainly won't blame you and I did see you post that *warning* several times and is the main reason why I did not try it for this year.

[Wilba]

Thank you guys for all the time and effort you put into this.

If I'm diciplined enough and can remember maybe next year I'll only play the V2 bets. Produce the least plays but almost is perfect year after year.

V1 has made more profit than V2 since 2004, no matter how you play it. So not sure why you would not play V1.

V3 is not nearly as strong but still makes profit overall, especially if you skip the A bets. I try to tell people year after year that V1/V2 and V3 and completely different systems and that you have to play them accordingly, but people still don't seem to understand. Personally I recommend playing V3 for only 30 of what you play V1 for. Playing V3 for the same unit size as V1 is just silly, look at the results posted just above you. However a 10 second analysis will show you that V3 still makes profit overall and is worth playing.

[Wilba]

the above post should say "for only 30 precent" of what you play V1 for. I put in a percent sign but it didn't post properly...

[knugen]

Gametime, come on now grizzlies

[knugen]

Damn, could grizzlies have a worse start!

[stevex]

Loving my A bet wins even more now!

Ha.

[dlunc3]

JM 7/5 Results

I have backtested 8 years of the 7/5 method extensively. It is a thing of beauty that is for sure, but as with everything sports betting it is not perfect. It took some tweaking to max out the results, and I'm happy to say the end result is in all likelihood the most profitable way to play the JM system! To start things off I will be posting the baseline 7/5 results. This is without filters and these are not final results, I just wanted to show you all the starting point:

Baseline Results (pre-filter/Not Final)
2003-4: +34.55
2004-5: -27.15
2005-6: -17.1
2006-7: -17.9
2007-8: +96.75
2008-9: +251.4
2009-10: +78.5
2010-11: +172.1
Total: +571.15

As you can see the results at the end are great! Many would have stopped here, and who could blame them. But I personally can not play a method that loses 3 seasons in a row. The method here from this sample has a 43% failure rate. The method pulls out so well only because the winning seasons are so much more than the losing ones. So, being the perfectionist I happen to be, I set my mind on creating a filter...

The Half-Point Buffer and Skip October Filters

The Half-Point Buffer is the result of my efforts. I tried many many different angles and this filter came out on top of them all. Here's how you play it: Whenever there is an A bet for JM, the A bet not only has to lose with the 3pt buy, but also an additional half point, to be considered an official 7/5 play. To be clear - the A bet must lose by an additional 3.5 points to the spread. So if the spread for an A bet is +7, the team in question must lose the A bet by 10.5 points to be a play. A bets that push or win with 3.5 points to the spread are no plays. A quick example - in 2006-7 New Orleans had an A bet with Golden State. The end score was 116-121 and the spread was +1.5 to New Orleans. With 3 points bought the spread would be +4.5. This means the A bet still lost 120.5 to 121. This series went on to lose on the B and C bet as well, making this a losing series. However with the Half-Point filter in place the score becomes 121-121, pushing the A bet. Since this is now an A bet push and not an A bet loss, the series would be a no play. If this is still confusing to any of you let me know and I will do my best to clear it up, but it should be pretty straight forward. There is also a Skip October filter in place. In some seasons playing October was beneficial, in others it was detrimental. Over the course of the entire sample it was shown to cause a net loss in units. Because of this, only series that start in November onward are official.

Now, here are the results with the filters in place. These are final results.

7/5 Final Results (filters in place):
2003-4: +70.85
2004-5: -19.5
2005-6: +12.2
2006-7: +35.05
2007-8: +84.75
2008-9: +244.4
2009-10: +66.5
2010-11: +146
Total: +640.25

As you can see the filter works beautifully and ups the total unit gain by almost +70 units! There is still one season that goes negative however. No matter how hard I tried I could not get every season in the positive. Even so, the method now only has a 14% failure rate, down almost 30%! The season the method does go negative is by less than 1 losses worth of units. Had there been 1 less loss that season we'd be looking at full +'s. So the ability to gain every season is very much possible! For comparison, the traditional JM system over the course of this sample has performed at +382.36 units, 257.89 units WORSE than the final 7/5 results (this is WITHOUT the use of his ML filter, it could be that it has performed even worse than this with the filter included due to bigger losses).

To Summarize:
* Skip series starting in October
* The A bet must lose by 3.5 points to the spread, not just 3, to be an official B/C play. Pushes with 3.5 are also a no play (see example).
* Place to win 7 units on the B bet. If that loses, place your C bet to win back your loss +5 units. If that loses, the series is over. Expect about 7 losses per season on average!
* A lost series is -21.65 units to the roll. Plan accordingly.

So brings the end of this post. Before I go I should note that this method is also profitable if you buy 2pts on the B/C bet. You will experience a few less losses per season, but the losses you still incur will be more costly. In the end, I would just not buy points. This method is incredibly profitable and incredibly easy to play, just be disciplined enough to make the C when you need to. I leave you now with these words: play with confidence my friends, knowing that your playing the most profitable way to play the JM system to date!!!

Thanks for reading and points are appreciated!

PS I am starting work on a version of the 7/5 method for On3's MLB homestand system. I ran a quick test through last years results and the initial impressions look good. More info on this as the MLB season approaches.

A few questions...

1) As we are noticing, V3 is having some issues this yr. Your backtesting was done with all 3 versions being equal correct? Without one being weighted more then the other?

2) You mentioned working on a method for On3's baseball system... any progress on this?

Keep up the good work man

[NZT-48]

hey limit didnt u forget to list the Portland c bet last night against the Lakers???.....

JM MAR 23

V3 MIAMI -5.5 @ Detroit (A) WIN
V3 DENVER +4.5 @ Utah (A) LOSS

JM MAR 24

V3 MEMPHIS +5 @ LA Clippers (C) : 7/5 +2
V3 DETROIT * @ New York (A) (* Line not available at time of play post)

[SkivChef]