Intentionally fouling in the back court down 3 with 31.9 seconds left?

[cleaveland]

Indiana's intentional fouling was working...after being down 7 with 39.5 seconds to play they cut the lead to 3 with 34.1 seconds to play...

Then, down 3, a one possession game, 31.9 seconds left they intentionally fouled again in the back court!!! I watched in disbelief as two Indiana players obviously contemplated intentionally fouling, rightly laid off then apparently after looking for guidance from their coach attempted to foul!

I've thought about it several times and no matter how you look at it it was the worst decision possible. Even if the Connecticut player missed both free throws, Connecticut would be guaranteed to get the ball back with a chance to win at worst.

If you were going to intentionally foul in that situation you would have to wait until there were under 24 seconds left in the game to ensure you got the final shot (assuming the player you fouled missed both free throws). But...

Under no circumstances would a team in this situation want the game to become a two possession game by intentionally fouling, it's ludicrous in every way unless their true intention was not to cover and the line was -4 to -4.5 almost everywhere until just before game time when it became -5 at some places. They lost by five, do you have a better explanation?

Mistake? Watch the replay, the Indiana players were clearly acting under orders to foul.

Retardation or incompetence? Indiana's coaching staff is very experienced and successful, I don't think so.

Corruption? It's the best explanation I can come up with here.

[Mirar Baseball]

Interesting point. I haven't watched the tape yet, but if they foul in that situation it is obviously to 'extend the game'. If they consequently miss a shot and then do NOT foul (when down 5, e.g. losing ATS), it obviously stinks of a sellout.

[cleaveland]

Interesting point. I haven't watched the tape yet, but if they foul in that situation it is obviously to 'extend the game'. If they consequently miss a shot and then do NOT foul (when down 5, e.g. losing ATS), it obviously stinks of a sellout.

You really gain nothing by intentionally fouling in the back court with 31.9 seconds to play in a one possession game. With that strategy you really can only lose and you can't win because you're giving the other team a good chance to make it a two possession game and you're almost certainly giving them the last shot of the game! They were down 3 and trying to give the other team a chance to make it a two possession game. If you're trying to win you don't do that unless the whole team suddenly forgot how to play pro basketball, I think that's impossible.

[Love The Action]

Yeah, but you are expecting women to think rationally while out on the basketball court. Based on my observations, much like in life, women do not do the rational thing out there on the court. I seriously doubt a fix or conspiracy theories because any abnormal betting patters would be easily detectable by the books who take such limited action on WNBA games (although their handle has grown over the years on the WNBA). I just think it was another irrational decision from an irrational league.

[Scorpion]

Mistake? Watch the replay, the Indiana players were clearly acting under orders to foul.

Retardation or incompetence? Indiana's coaching staff is very experienced and successful, I don't think so.

Corruption? It's the best explanation I can come up with here.

Why do you think male head coaches have won the WNBA championship 13 times and female head coahes only 1 time?

Van Chancellor 4 championships
Michael Cooper 2 championships
Bill Laimbeer 3 championships
Corey Gaines 1 championship* hes black
Brian Agler 1 championship
John Whisenant 1 championship
Paul Westhead 1 championship

[Mirar Baseball]

You really gain nothing by intentionally fouling in the back court with 31.9 seconds to play in a one possession game. With that strategy you really can only lose and you can't win because you're giving the other team a good chance to make it a two possession game and you're almost certainly giving them the last shot of the game! They were down 3 and trying to give the other team a chance to make it a two possession game. If you're trying to win you don't do that unless the whole team suddenly forgot how to play pro basketball, I think that's impossible.

Sometimes NFL coaches make decisions that don't make sense to an average viewer. But most of the time they play the percentages and make the correct call.

I doubt that WNBA decisions can be this complicated. But giving Indiana's coach the benefit of the doubt (let's assume he wasn't trying to make his team lose ATS, just for the sake of argument) I would guess his stat sheets showed that Connecticut sucks at making free throws late in the 4th quarter. So putting them on the line 2-3 times in the final 30 seconds of the game could be +EV decision. Charles and Greene shot 3-8 combined... Was one of them fouled perhaps, or could it be his intention to foul either player specifically? Did they have any timeouts for him to explain his super plan to the team? lol

maybe he's just a crook

[cleaveland]

Sometimes NFL coaches make decisions that don't make sense to an average viewer. But most of the time they play the percentages and make the correct call.

I doubt that WNBA decisions can be this complicated. But giving Indiana's coach the benefit of the doubt (let's assume he wasn't trying to make his team lose ATS, just for the sake of argument) I would guess his stat sheets showed that Connecticut sucks at making free throws late in the 4th quarter. So putting them on the line 2-3 times in the final 30 seconds of the game could be +EV decision. Charles and Greene shot 3-8 combined... Was one of them fouled perhaps, or could it be his intention to foul either player specifically? Did they have any timeouts for him to explain his super plan to the team? lol

maybe he's just a crook

Super plan? It's bad strategy on at least two counts. First, the opposition only needs to convert one of of two free throws to make the game a two possession game AND secondly, by fouling like this the opposition is almost guaranteed to get the ball last with a chance to win whether or not they make a free throw.

You call that a "super plan"? It's a horrible plan that will kill your chances to win almost every time.

You say this plan could be +EV? If they don't foul, Connecticut most likely has to convert a basket to make it a two possession game (that's much harder than making one of two free throws). Also, if Indiana doesn't foul and they get a miss and a rebound then they get the last shot to try and tie the game which is better than giving the other team the last shot and fouling almost certainly would give the opposition the last shot to win no matter what as I mentioned earlier.

This plan couldn't possibly be considered +EV by any estimation imho.

[BetterBizness]

Funny, I never saw any of the game, but of the WNBA I watched this year, the last minute clock mgmt is ATTROCIOUS! I don't know if it's coming from the coach, or if the chicks are just dumber then stumps, but I see shots up with no shot shot clock with like 10 seconds left in a quarter, I saw one with like 3 possessions in the final 24... strange shit...

[Mirar Baseball]

I've just watched the tape.

as two Indiana players obviously contemplated intentionally fouling, rightly laid off then apparently after looking for guidance from their coach attempted to foul!

I'm not even sure we're talking about the same game. Douglas fouled almost immediately, and benches (and her coach) all were at least 50 feet away. They didn't have to foul.

The second foul taking place near their bench wasn't as automatic, and they actually looked hesitant on whether they should take it. Neither of the two fouls was necessary.

My problem with the statement* 'Lin Dunn is a criminal' basically is that she wasn't the one turning the ball over on the final meaningful Indiana possession. It was Tamika. The same Tamika who miraculously saved the ball a couple of possessions earlier to bring her team into the game. So uh, I think it's just a far from flawless game plan. Both teams sort of screwed up that final minute. It was a great game, a lot of action, some mistakes.

But it's hard to convince someone who lost money that the game was fair.

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*note: I am generally prejudiced against anyone suspecting conspiracy in sports. It is something you can't cap, and therefore having these kinds of thoughts is counterproductive. When something strange happens, IMO it's better to attribute it to 'stupidity not malice' and move on having made a mental note not to trust coach X or team B in the future.

[Mirar Baseball]

Funny, I never saw any of the game, but of the WNBA I watched this year, the last minute clock mgmt is ATTROCIOUS! I don't know if it's coming from the coach, or if the chicks are just dumber then stumps, but I see shots up with no shot shot clock with like 10 seconds left in a quarter, I saw one with like 3 possessions in the final 24... strange shit...

I agree.

The short version of my previous post fits in exactly two words: Hanlon's Razor.