Does anyone use Heritage sportsbook? What are your thoughts of them? And from what ive seen, their opening lines can be 2-4 pts off, is this true? Thanks.
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NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 4/6/2012
Play #1
Grizzlies/Heat under (189) 1x (Locked)
I also like the Grizzlies on the side, but I think the better value play is on the under. Miami's sole weakness on defense is defending the 3 point shot and Memphis is not a good three point shooting team. Although both teams make a living in transition of turnovers, I don't think we'll see enough of that type of play to push this game over. These defenses are really starting to come into shape and Memphis bases their whole identity off defense. I expect an intense game with a PACE around 91 but lower shooting percentages from the floor around a collective 43-45% for both teams. I have this game set at 186 giving us a full three points of value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.Comment -
This game really bugs me. Every stat I have points to the Under, but I have a strong Over feeling and just don't know what to do. Thinking of taking Memphis Under and Heat Over, but still on the fence.
Good luck LTA!Comment -
Took this play last night along with the Bucks/Cats over and Jazz/Warriors over. Any leans on those totals? Last time the Jazz hosted GS the total went way under even with OT. Still opened at 203. I'm hoping these teams can shoot better this time around.Comment -
I lean to the over in both, but you have to consider that the Bucks/Cats just played and it barely hit 204 after a big first half. Plus, Augustin and Maggette will not play in this one. Even though the last game went over, the books adjusted in favor of the under. Hmmm....a better pass imo, but good luck!
I also like the Jazz over but GS is just too inconsistent right now and they are not playing as fast as they could be. Mark Jackson does not know what he's doing right now so I think it's hard to trust GS to score consistently. Still undecided on this one, but good luck!Comment -
I think the Bucks one may be close, but Augustin was a non factor in last weeks game anyway. Bucks light it up on offense and also can't stop anyone. After giving up 98 to a pathetic Cavs team without Kyrie Irving, I feel better about this play. You makr a good point that there might not be too much value, but let's hope for the best. I'm a little more concerned with the inconsistency of GS. I'm also leaning over in the Lakers/Rockets game, curious if you have a lean at all in that game. Thanks for the response. Let's have a big day in MLB and NBA.Comment -
Still haven't decided nothing on this game.
Memphis has strong Under tendency in first leg of B2b, but poor ATS stats. They also play much more important game by far tomorrow, facing Dallas, that they lost to just two days ago, in a quick revenge chance between two teams battling for the playoff spot in the West.
Heat had a team meeting after the loss to Boston (and after a loss to Oklahoma) and are focusing on defense. The problem is that they can't stay focused at home for too long.
Your are much stronger stat guy than me, so I guess you know what you're saying, but I can't agree that Miami's weak spot is three point shooting. Battier, Wade, LeBron and Chalmers all good on the ball defenders. Their problem is in the paint with Bosh being poor defender and Antony being undersized way too many times.
Against Gasol and Z-Bo it can be an issue. On the other hand, Miami and Memphis have similar roster to last season and Heat handled them really easily in Miami last year.
Battier was a Grizzly last season and he knows their players really well, possible extra value.
On the other hand, Allen is a great defender and can guard Wade well I think.
Still on the fence here, but I'm leaning Heat ATS/ Over on Heat TT or sitting this one out.Comment -
Still lacking time here my friend, but my unders seem to be in synch with yours over the past couple of weeks. Wondering how you feel about the Pacers/Thunder here? Thunder defense is really improving, even though I don't see as much statistical value I thought initially in playing them at 3.5, they haven't lost twice these season and as long as Perk, Ibaka and Collison can keep the bigs quite I think they can win this one rather easy. So I have big leans to - 3.5 (might buy down to 3) and under, what do you think?Comment -
I like Thunder chances of winning here. Better team, that matches the Pacers well and has huge motivation after two straight losses.Comment -
Played Heat -7. Fading Memphis here. They play Dallas tomorrow in direct battle in the West and it will be their 5th game in 6 days with flights in between (Oakland, Memphis, Dallas, Miami, Memphis). I think that Memphis can throw in the towel really early here. Will be rooting for your Under LTA (unless it's like Noah's FT's yesterday and my line depends on it)!!!Comment -
Dude, miami is really bad at defending the 3...they give up over 36% of all 3 point attempts which is third worst in the league. Only denver and new jersey are worse. Therefore, its not my opinion or something that can be debated. The heat are not good at defending the 3 despite all of their athleticism. Good luck tonight.Comment -
Only thing about that is...
Memphis doesn't shoot the 3 so.Comment -
Probably playing atlanta, but need to look at a few more things and decide whether to lay 8.5 or buy down to 8. GLLast edited by Love The Action; 04-06-12, 05:53 PM.Comment -
Play #2
Hawks (-8.5) 1x (Locked)
Books started to make the move towards Atlanta and I really think we see a double digit Hawks win, so I am going to risk the hook in this situation. I have this game set at -10 giving us 1.5 points of value as Atlanta has a sizable statistical and situational advantage with home court as well. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the Hawks for 1x. Good luck.Comment -
Tony Allen out tonightComment -
Why would that matter? Are you suggesting that because Detroit beat Atlanta at home by 1 point when Atlanta was in a fatigue/letdown spot after playing Miami and Indiana, or because they beat Detroit by 8 on the road, that my model would somehow spit out a different number?
That's not how models -- at least mine -- work. My model is based on advanced stats, of which Atlanta dominates Detroit in almost every conceivable category. When you consider that Atlanta is 6th in defensive efficiency and Detroit is 24th, that should illustrate the disparity between these two teams from a quantitative basis. Then, add in the fact that Atlanta is fully rested going against a Detroit team that is on a b2b 3 in 4, and the qualitative factors also point to the Hawks. Finally if you consider that Detroit often gets annihilated by similar defensive squads to Atlanta and a 10 point spread at home is accurate.
The first time Atlanta and Detroit played this season, Atlanta was set as 6 point faves in Detroit (they covered and won by 8). If you calculate a typical 6 point adjustment for home court, the books had Atlanta as -12 point faves at home at that point in the season. Considering that fact, how can you question a -10 spread?Comment -
Just wondering. Not sure why you're getting so defensive; I figured Atlanta was -9 for a reason, and told all of the Detroit backers to beware because of it.
Atlanta pushed the 6 the first time; they didn't cover. And that game was in OT. Second time they lost by 1. Seemed odd to me that they'd be -9 in this spot given those two results. Only thing I could figure is that the Pistons were playing a B2B.
Your model may call for a 10-point home spread and identify that the Hawks dominate the Pistons on paper, but obviously that hasn't been the case in their previous two meetings this season. Not to mention Detroit has won 5 of 7 overall while Atlanta's been kind of sputtering for the past 10 days or so.Comment -
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BOL tonight LTA. your calls are on the money.
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Both off to a nice start. Lets get a 2/0 night LTAComment -
I didn't think I was coming off as defensive. I was simply responding to your question. You questioned how I could set this game at -10 in light of the previous scores of this matchup. I explained how and then questioned why you think previous scores -- in a mere 2 game sample -- would have a profound effect on the "fair" spread. You still have not answered that question.
Why do you think past results of a mere two games is indicative of a future result?
As to your comment about Detroit's recent wins, please check the competition. I mean come on...I know you are a Detroit fan but beating the Wiz, Bobkittens and Cavs, plus a depleted Orlando team, is nothing to brag about....
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16 pt O/U gap. In 1x to hit the gap.Comment -
So you're saying the books don't take series results from earlier in the season into consideration at all when setting a line?I didn't think I was coming off as defensive. I was simply responding to your question. You questioned how I could set this game at -10 in light of the previous scores of this matchup. I explained how and then questioned why you think previous scores -- in a mere 2 game sample -- would have a profound effect on the "fair" spread. You still have not answered that question.
Why do you think past results of a mere two games is indicative of a future result?
As to your comment about Detroit's recent wins, please check the competition. I mean come on...I know you are a Detroit fan but beating the Wiz, Bobkittens and Cavs, plus a depleted Orlando team, is nothing to brag about....Comment -
"So you're saying the books don't take series results from earlier in the season into consideration at all when setting a line?"
Generally, books will only consider past results in the capacity that the public does. Most of the public is like you (No Coincidence)-- They will look at the 2 match-ups that the teams had previously, and gauge their prediction partly on that. Hopefully you understand why that is a really, really bad idea - most people don't understand- and the books know this.
Just to give you an example, this is like saying you flipped a coin twice and it landed on heads twice. If they books set the next odds at 50/50, the best bet is heads right? (Unless tails is going to be really mad, and play the 'revenge angle'...I could go on
Bottom line- just use a lot of data so your prediction is normalized.Comment -
No, I am saying that my model does not evaluate past results when projecting a final score or "fair" line. My model is based solely on quantitative factors, without being skewed by public perception. On the other hand, the books consider previous results because of public perception -- i.e. people who incorrectly assume a previous result is predictive of a future result.
For example, if Miami beat Philly 3 times in a row the books will inflate the line in the fourth game because they know the public will pound Miami based on the previous 3 results. However, if the true quantitative factors applicable to Philly are closer to Miami than the books' spread would indicate, then we have spotted "value." Remember, I'm trying to spot mistakes by the books. Those mistakes are caused by public perception. Consequently, I don't allow public perception to invade my analysis until after my final score projections are made. That is when I can add such a factor to help me determine which way the line will move in light of the "fair" line that I have projected.Comment -
I never said it was the end-all, be-all to setting a line. I just asked if he thinks the books don't take it into consideration at all."So you're saying the books don't take series results from earlier in the season into consideration at all when setting a line?"
Generally, books will only consider past results in the capacity that the public does. Most of the public is like you (No Coincidence)-- They will look at the 2 match-ups that the teams had previously, and gauge their prediction partly on that. Hopefully you understand why that is a really, really bad idea - most people don't understand- and the books know this.
Just to give you an example, this is like saying you flipped a coin twice and it landed on heads twice. If they books set the next odds at 50/50, the best bet is heads right? (Unless tails is going to be really mad, and play the 'revenge angle'...I could go on
Bottom line- just use a lot of data so your prediction is normalized.
There's nothing about past results that guarantees future performance, but when an inferior team on paper like Detroit continues to find a way to hang around with an opponent like Atlanta, it would be foolish to not consider what's happened on the court between the two teams at all. There's nothing "quantitative" about that -- it's just a matchup issue for whatever reason. So far, the Pistons are proving that again tonight. I have no idea if they'll cover or not, but you can't just dismiss the fact that they've found ways to overachieve against Atlanta all season long.
And BTW, your example about flipping coins is apples and oranges to this discussion.Comment
