Post your comments and leans in this thread. If you have a play post it in the regular best bets thread. Remember, this is for comments and leans only. No results will be tracked from this thread.
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NBA Thursday
IND (#23) by 2.3 over PHX (#21)
SA (#2) by 0.1 over LAX (#6)
NBA Friday (current rankings and lines -- games involving PHX & LAX subject to change)
NJ (#1) by 7.2 over ATL (#26)
TOR (#16) by 5.2 over PHX (#21)
ORL (#9) by 3.4 over DAL (#7)
NY (#29) by 0.6 over PHI (#28)
CHA (#22) by 3.0 over CHI (#23)
DET (#5) by 6.8 over MIL (#13)
MEM (#8) by 2.6 over NOK (#27)
WAS (#3) by 4.3 over HOU (#25)
DEN (#10) by 3.8 over MIN (#15)
GS (#20) by 2.6 over SAC (#19)
SEA (#18) by 1.0 over LAX (#6)
LAC (#17) by 2.1 over UTH (#12)
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UPDATED REPORT CARD (summary)
for all games showing gap of 3.2 points or more between Edgar line and closing line, March 1-29:
ATS winners:
48-42 (.533)
Play comes within 4.5 points of closing line:
68-24 (.739)
Bottom line:
For March, record for all plays ATS has now dipped close to the profit line for -110 wagers.
Same plays, randomly paired, yield 2-team teaser winners at about 55%.
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Brief hiatus for me,
good luck, brothers
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i am leaning towards the same plays Juuso already posted in the best bets.
searched for Indiana over 205 home games this season, and found only 3:
Philadelphia L 109-111
Seattle W 115-96
Atlanta L (OT) 112-117
every other game is below 200. So if a visiting team can make Indy go over that high figure, Phoenix is of the right type. Not much of a discovery...
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I like Phoenix pretty much the same reasons IMGV does. B2B and 4th game in 5 days for Indiana. Phoenix despite being pretty awful on road lately are due to a good Performance. Amare will sit the game out so he is not messing with their chemistry today. Also, 205.5 is a low total for a Phoenix game, a team that likes to shoot lights out and win games by outscoring their opponents allowing average 102.2 points per game. 4th game in 5 days will ensure Pacers will not be their sharpest on the defensive end.
I chose Spurs because they still need wins to clutch the west. They have much deeper lineup than Lakers. They took an easy win against Clippers at Staples Center 2 days ago by 11 points. I rate Clippers higher than Lakers, but Kobe and co does have their moments. Still i'm confident if Spurs stay focused and are motivated they should have no problems winning this game by 10+ points.Last edited by juuso; 03-30-06, 01:20 PM.Comment -
Are U Kidding?
the last 2 months IND. is 4-0-1 ATS at home as a dog, now there getting + 3 against a team that all screw up.lost by 36 and 22. L3 @ IND. Pacers won SU vs phoe. IND. BIG TIME!Comment -
I've got to agree that that is the only side I could take. I think the "It's due" angle is often over-worked.Originally posted by bama06Comment -
If you're flipping a coin 10 times and it was 'heads' the first 9 times, whats the probability that the 10th flip is a 'tails?' 50%.
The 'due' factor is a load of crap.
Phoenix may win, but it isn't because of astrology or any other pile of superstitious crap.Comment -
another home dog
last time SA played LAL on the road it was the 1st game of their road trip and covered a 4.5 spread by only 2.5 pts. this time its their 5th road game in a row, plus Tony Parker is ? (shin) and he's been in LA the past 3 days screwing his desperate housewifes chick (legs), so count him out. LAL have won 4 in a row and always play at a higher level when a home dog. like the LAKERS here + 4.Comment -
post of the dayOriginally posted by Winston SmithComment -
Excuse me for my wording. English is not my native language. Stating Suns are due to a better performance wasn't by all means ment to imply that is my main factor of taking them. Just an opinion. I'm emphasizing heavily on the Fatigue factor for Pacers.Originally posted by Winston Smith
Taking a handicap is almost never a sharp 50%-50% situation. It may be close to that often, but there is almost always bunch of factors in each game, making advantage, albeit mostly small one, to one side. Grading these factors is not an easy task, but there is more to consider than just home /away ats record.
For example i liked Spurs early line -3 and sold a point to get +103 odds. My estimations give them over 50% chance of covering the number, making it a value bet for me. I always give certain number in line and odds i'm willing to take a side in a match. All the odds and Spurs line has moved in my favor. That could be so called square money, but i'm happy with my bets as i got considerably more value on each bet by taking early lines as what i could get now. We will see what happens.Comment -
Oh no, juuso, I understand. I wasn't even really referring to your post. Just everytime I hear someone give that as their reasoning (which no one here really did, it was just mentioned) my blood boils a little bit.
Of course a professional sports game is not a 50/50 propoition, but I can't tell you how many people I've seen play a team on a 6-game losing streak because they're 'due.' Well, weren't they due after the 5th loss? Won't they still be 'due' after the 7th?
Just a general observation brought to mind by bama and Razz's interchange, nothing particularly against your post or your reasoning.
(Your English is just fine. Better than some of those for whom it is a native language. Certain mods come to mind.
)
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Originally posted by Winston Smith(Your English is just fine. Better than some of those for whom it is a native language. Certain mods come to mind.)
I wasn't really referring to you either juuso, just that a lot of people would take the Suns purely for that reason.Comment -
hehe, no problem. i thought you both were referring to my post
I agree "due to" factor is not a valid reasoning alone to take a side. As i said i think they are due to a better performance, meaning they will atleast give some effort unlike in last 2 games. I cashed pretty nicely playing against them in ml in those 2 games anyway
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when is somebody going to tell us O'neal is'nt playing. on the computer all day and not one word. BS!!!!!!Originally posted by bama06Comment -
should have pull a jay edgar and taken the day off. michigan is garbage, no O'neal, whats next coby not showing up!Comment
