James' Cavaliers faced elimination games eight times in their five consecutive playoff appearances between 2005/06 and 2009/10.
James' record in these games: 3 won, 5 lost.
Every time Cavs won facing elimination from the playoff series, they were eliminated the very next game. E.G. never managed to win series when opponent got to 3 wins first.
Five times James faced elimination for the first time in the series.
James' record in these games: 3 won, 2 lost.
James' stats:
11.4 REB
8.6 ASST
30.4 PTS
14.0 FT attempts
These five games were low scoring (average of 168 points)
These number suggest that LBJ will play with the proverbial sense of urgency.
Gauging these numbers against player propositions, I really like Over 8.5 rebounds at +105. In Cleveland, Lebron was often the primary ballhandler, which he isn't here. If he keeps up his trend of getting to the line a ton (which I know is less likely without him dominating the ball), there is a good chance he will score Overs in points and rebounds category. Rebounds — simply because he should grab a couple extra boards on drives where he doesn't get a foul called.
The biggest problem with the above reasoning is that James is averaging a mind-numbing 3.2 FT attempts in this series. Even if the trend keeps up (it is that he shoots 25% free throws in 'the first elimination game of the series' than on average in the same series), he probably will only shoot 4-5 free throws!
If you believe in the Dallas zone, bet over for LBJ's assists and possibly rebounds.
If you think Lebron can get to the rim better due to desperation/getting calls/whatever, bet over in points and rebounds.
There is little doubt in my mind that he goes over in 1-2 of these categories, possibly all three. It's really 'now or never' for James and, with the exception of game 4 in the NBA Finals (SA Spurs 4 - Cavs 0) he has proved he can fill up the stat sheet in potential season-ending games.
James' record in these games: 3 won, 5 lost.
Every time Cavs won facing elimination from the playoff series, they were eliminated the very next game. E.G. never managed to win series when opponent got to 3 wins first.
Five times James faced elimination for the first time in the series.
James' record in these games: 3 won, 2 lost.
James' stats:
11.4 REB
8.6 ASST
30.4 PTS
14.0 FT attempts
These five games were low scoring (average of 168 points)
These number suggest that LBJ will play with the proverbial sense of urgency.
Gauging these numbers against player propositions, I really like Over 8.5 rebounds at +105. In Cleveland, Lebron was often the primary ballhandler, which he isn't here. If he keeps up his trend of getting to the line a ton (which I know is less likely without him dominating the ball), there is a good chance he will score Overs in points and rebounds category. Rebounds — simply because he should grab a couple extra boards on drives where he doesn't get a foul called.
The biggest problem with the above reasoning is that James is averaging a mind-numbing 3.2 FT attempts in this series. Even if the trend keeps up (it is that he shoots 25% free throws in 'the first elimination game of the series' than on average in the same series), he probably will only shoot 4-5 free throws!
If you believe in the Dallas zone, bet over for LBJ's assists and possibly rebounds.
If you think Lebron can get to the rim better due to desperation/getting calls/whatever, bet over in points and rebounds.
There is little doubt in my mind that he goes over in 1-2 of these categories, possibly all three. It's really 'now or never' for James and, with the exception of game 4 in the NBA Finals (SA Spurs 4 - Cavs 0) he has proved he can fill up the stat sheet in potential season-ending games.