This will be long because it has to be, considering the signifcance of the situation, but I will try to highlight and space to make it more bearable to read.
Titled it that way because it is 100% theirs to lose at this point.
Dallas wins NBA Championship -110 to win $600 (large on scale, but controlled)
------------------------------
Explanation as to why series price over MLs for games 6 and/or 7 (unit size for practicality).
Scenario 1: Dallas wins game 6
(ML) risk 1 to win 2.2 @ +220 = +2.2
(series) risk 2.2 to win 2 @ -110 = +2
Scenario 2: Dallas wins game 7 (lost ML bet from game 6)
* The ML in game 7 of Finals dropped from game 6 in 2005 for DET/SA, but rose in 2010 for BOS/LA. I have the feeling it drops if it goes 7 here, but keep ML the same here for demonstration covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/pastresults/2004-2005/team404302.html
(ML) risk 1 to win 2.2 @ +220 = +2.2
2.2 - the risked 1 from game 6 = +1.2 total
(series) risk 2.2 to win 2 @ -110 = +2
Scenario 3: Dallas loses game 7 (lost ML bet from game 6)
(ML) risk 1 to win 2.2 @ +220 = -1
-1 + -1 from game 6 = -2 total
(series) risk 2.2 to win 2 @ -110 = -2.2
For ML, you win .2 more if game 6 win and save .2 if game 7 loss, whereas a game 7 win for series you win .8 more. The chances (odds wise and otherwise) of them winning game 7 are going to be equal if not greater than winning game 6. You also won't have to worry about nutting up again betting game 7 as you are already locked in.
Series bet is the call if you like Dallas to flat out win.
------------------------------
I first got the feeling Dallas would win it all after game 1 win in LA, then after they swept, I absolutely believed it. Wrote this 10 days before Finals and it looks good still http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basket...-heat-6-a.html
------------------------------
1) Destiny, Karma, whatever you want to call it.After all the shit this team has gone through, it is unfathomable to see them lose this after coming all the way back and being one game away from the sweetest redemption possible.
History:
2) Most resilient team ever, and experienced. I just outlined above in "2011" what this team has overcome. They have an undying resolve that will lead to a Finals victory. Kidd, Dirk, Terry, Marion, Chandler, all guys 10+ years in the league who have been on contenders and now they are 1 fuking game from winning it after what they've been through in the cumulation of their careers. No matter what the score is, you can count on these guys to fight, and fight, and fight, til that horn blows. ONE GAME.
3) The Offense is finally rolling. First breakout game of the series for Dallas came at the perfect time. They shot 56.5% in game 5. Before that, they shot 37.3% in game 1, 48% in game 2, 40% in game 3, and 39.7% in game 4. In game 5, Terry came up with the biggest shots with 21 total points, 8-12 shooting with Queen on him. Barea came up real big with 17 points, 4-5 from 3. Dirk 29 points 9-18. This is exactly what the Mavericks have been looking for all series. Every contributing player is playing with confidence right now (Peja doesn't count. I guess he isn't on the team anymore? wtf happened??). They know they can score on this Heat team and wear the Defense down, and the confidence and shooting will carry over.
4) Closing in the 4th. Down 15 with 6 mins to go in game 2 and won. Down 9 game 4 and won even with Dirk off his game. Down 4 game 5 with 4 mins to go and won on 17-4 run to close. They nearly won game 3 also down 9 points, came up short on final shot. In total they have 6 comebacks this postseason down 7+ in the 4th. Clutch shooting is an obvious for reason for comebacks, but they are also totally locking Heat down. When a team has zero Offensive identity like the Heat, they will run iso too much where it is easy for the Defense to tunnel vision double the go to player. The Heat are running the shot clock down way too much, then the double team from Dallas comes, then comes the dump off, then comes panic and heavily a contested 20 foot brick. Then Dallas goes down and scores and Ds up the exact same way. Heat are completely out of their offensive game at that point. This happened to a varying degree in games 2-5, but Bosh hit the open shot in game 3. Also in game 5, in mid quarter, Heat would hit low post open man as Chandler would wander out to help double. Carlisle adjusted that and Heat scored 4 points in the final 4 minutes.
5) Massive Coaching Advantage.
Any self-respecting player would have put up or shut up, instead she deflects responsibility. Queen also says she wins with defense. Oh? So what about 66.67% from Terry in game 5 for 21 points and the two clinching 3s shot right in Queen's face? She is Wade's bitch, follows him everywhere, copies his clothing, mocks Dirk after Wade starts it. Also, rumor is that Queen's girl is getting piped by Rashard Lewis. First, Jordan wouldn't allow that shit for a second. Second, Jordan, or any other great player, blocks all of the off court shit out and delivers no matter what. Not Queen. Queen is a broken player and has always been a pussbag.
7) Miami is not ready for this. The only chance they have is if Wade goes off for 40 and the refs channel their inner 2006 and he gets 25 throws. Queen broken. Bosh sounds defeated in post game and rivals Queen for the biggest bitch in the league. Spoelstra sounds shaken, knows he is in way over his head now. Also, no chance in hell worthless fat fuk Eric Dampier wins a ring against the Mavericks after he didn't do shit for the Mavs when he played with them from 04-10. Karma, you fat fuk, for sucking ass all those years.
8) Refs will favor Dallas, if anybody. We saw it clear as day in game 3, and game 5 had some qusetionable calls go Mavs way. Cuban hasn't said a word all series and largely hasn't even been shown on TV in the crowd. He knows damn well his team benefits when he shuts up, and it has worked so far. Refs give some back to Dallas after 2006.
9) Those saying NBA will get a game 7 for sure have not a clue. It is a pipe dream conspiracy belief that NBA will always get what it wants. Just look at history. 2006 3-2 Heat going into 6 could have easily gone 7, Heat close out and the refs favored them, not the Mavs for a game 7. 2007 Spurs sweep Queen for lowest rated Finals of all-time. 2008 Celtics-Lakers would have been a great 7 game series, Celtics win in 6 by 40 points. 2009 Lakers win in 5 for a boring Finals. How many game 7s in the Finals did Jordan have? 0.
10) Those saying that opening +6 for game 6 is a trap to take Mavs, look what happened in 06. Dallas was -6 in game 6 at home after being -5.5 and -4.5 in games 1 and 2. covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/pastresults/2005-2006/team404047.html Heat won SU. This year Miami was -5 and -4.5 (about) in games 1 and 2, now opened -6 in the same way. Books antcipate a bounce back for home team is all, not a "trap".
Dallas completes the greatest postseason run of all time
Titled it that way because it is 100% theirs to lose at this point.
Dallas wins NBA Championship -110 to win $600 (large on scale, but controlled)
------------------------------
Explanation as to why series price over MLs for games 6 and/or 7 (unit size for practicality).
Scenario 1: Dallas wins game 6
(ML) risk 1 to win 2.2 @ +220 = +2.2
(series) risk 2.2 to win 2 @ -110 = +2
Scenario 2: Dallas wins game 7 (lost ML bet from game 6)
* The ML in game 7 of Finals dropped from game 6 in 2005 for DET/SA, but rose in 2010 for BOS/LA. I have the feeling it drops if it goes 7 here, but keep ML the same here for demonstration covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/pastresults/2004-2005/team404302.html
(ML) risk 1 to win 2.2 @ +220 = +2.2
2.2 - the risked 1 from game 6 = +1.2 total
(series) risk 2.2 to win 2 @ -110 = +2
Scenario 3: Dallas loses game 7 (lost ML bet from game 6)
(ML) risk 1 to win 2.2 @ +220 = -1
-1 + -1 from game 6 = -2 total
(series) risk 2.2 to win 2 @ -110 = -2.2
For ML, you win .2 more if game 6 win and save .2 if game 7 loss, whereas a game 7 win for series you win .8 more. The chances (odds wise and otherwise) of them winning game 7 are going to be equal if not greater than winning game 6. You also won't have to worry about nutting up again betting game 7 as you are already locked in.
Series bet is the call if you like Dallas to flat out win.
------------------------------
I first got the feeling Dallas would win it all after game 1 win in LA, then after they swept, I absolutely believed it. Wrote this 10 days before Finals and it looks good still http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basket...-heat-6-a.html
------------------------------
1) Destiny, Karma, whatever you want to call it.After all the shit this team has gone through, it is unfathomable to see them lose this after coming all the way back and being one game away from the sweetest redemption possible.
History:
- 2006 Finals. Dallas up 2-0 with a 13 point lead in game 3 with about 6 minutes to go in the 4th Quarter. Heat pull off comeback to win by 2 aided by a multitude of questionable calls for Wade. Game 4 Dallas blown out. Game 5 Wade gets call after call down stretch, including the go-ahead 100% phantom foul that seals it for Miami. Mavs Howard calls an ill-advised timeout that prevents Dallas from forwarding ball with 1.9 seconds after Wade hit a free throw to put Miami up by 1, Heat win by 1 point. Heat win game 6 in Dallas by 3 points with Terry missing the last shot of the whole series, a 3 pointer that would have tied it at the buzzer. The pain and anguish Dirk and Terry have from this that has propelled them through these playoffs to excel and perform in the clutch is beyond words. Here is the phantom call that put Heat ahead for the game, and the series for good:
- 2007. #1 overall loses to 8 seed Warriors in 6, adding to the legacy of failure with the biggest NBA upset maybe ever.
- 2008. Kidd rejoings Mavs and lose to 2 seed Hornets as a 7 in 5 games. Johnson fired as coach. Perception is they are finished as any outside contender.
- 2009. Carlisle hired as coach, Mavs upset 3 seed Spurs as a 6, lose to 2 seed Nuggets in 5.
- 2010. 2 seed Mavs lose to 7 seed Spurs in 6. The perception is they have choked again and will never win.
- All while this is happening we here nothing but how soft Dirk is and how Mavs are chokers and posers.
- Played well in regular season, suffered injuries of Caron Butler in January for the year, Dirk out for a few weeks in mid season, captured 3 seed.
- First round. Portland was the popular upset pick, Dallas was only -180 or so, nobody took Dallas as a serious contender at all. Dallas wins first 2, lost game 3 by 5, blew a 20 point 4th Quarter lead in game 4, won game 5, won game 6 on raod. Tremendous resolve to respond that way after game 4 meltdown.
- Second round. LA came in at -375 to -400 favorites. Game 1 Dallas was down 16 in the second half, but closed it. They were down 5 with 3 minutes left. They closed it and won. Game 2 they won going away in the 4th as 7 point dogs. Game 3 they cameback down 7 in the 4th to win. Game 4 they completed the sweep winning by 30.
- Conference Finals. Dirks drops 48 in game 1. OKC wins game 2. Dallas wins game 3 @ OKC wire to wire and easily. Game 4 Dallas was down 15 with 5 minutes, cameback to tie, won in OT. Game 5 Dallas was down 8 in the 4th, cameback to seal trip to the Finals
- Finals. Game 1 Heat win going away in the 4th. Game 2 Dallas was down 15 with 6 minutes in the 4th and won to complete the biggest NBA Finals comeback ever, led by Dirk. Game 3 Heat win close. Game 4 Dallas cameback down 9 in the 4th and win close with Dirk playing sick and hitting clincher. Game 5 Dallas pulls away closing 4th on a 17-4 run with amazing play from Terry, Kidd, Barea, Dirk, Chandler, Marion, whole team. *Wade and Queen mock Dirk's illness in game 4 and get beat in game 5.
2) Most resilient team ever, and experienced. I just outlined above in "2011" what this team has overcome. They have an undying resolve that will lead to a Finals victory. Kidd, Dirk, Terry, Marion, Chandler, all guys 10+ years in the league who have been on contenders and now they are 1 fuking game from winning it after what they've been through in the cumulation of their careers. No matter what the score is, you can count on these guys to fight, and fight, and fight, til that horn blows. ONE GAME.
3) The Offense is finally rolling. First breakout game of the series for Dallas came at the perfect time. They shot 56.5% in game 5. Before that, they shot 37.3% in game 1, 48% in game 2, 40% in game 3, and 39.7% in game 4. In game 5, Terry came up with the biggest shots with 21 total points, 8-12 shooting with Queen on him. Barea came up real big with 17 points, 4-5 from 3. Dirk 29 points 9-18. This is exactly what the Mavericks have been looking for all series. Every contributing player is playing with confidence right now (Peja doesn't count. I guess he isn't on the team anymore? wtf happened??). They know they can score on this Heat team and wear the Defense down, and the confidence and shooting will carry over.
4) Closing in the 4th. Down 15 with 6 mins to go in game 2 and won. Down 9 game 4 and won even with Dirk off his game. Down 4 game 5 with 4 mins to go and won on 17-4 run to close. They nearly won game 3 also down 9 points, came up short on final shot. In total they have 6 comebacks this postseason down 7+ in the 4th. Clutch shooting is an obvious for reason for comebacks, but they are also totally locking Heat down. When a team has zero Offensive identity like the Heat, they will run iso too much where it is easy for the Defense to tunnel vision double the go to player. The Heat are running the shot clock down way too much, then the double team from Dallas comes, then comes the dump off, then comes panic and heavily a contested 20 foot brick. Then Dallas goes down and scores and Ds up the exact same way. Heat are completely out of their offensive game at that point. This happened to a varying degree in games 2-5, but Bosh hit the open shot in game 3. Also in game 5, in mid quarter, Heat would hit low post open man as Chandler would wander out to help double. Carlisle adjusted that and Heat scored 4 points in the final 4 minutes.
5) Massive Coaching Advantage.
- Spoelstra is a 40 year old novice with zero prior coaching experience, was a fukin video tape man until he became Riley's clipboard bitch for 10 years. Listen to him talk and I guarantee you will hear one of two things: 1) "stay the course" 2) "this is where we thrive". He repeats this shit like a patheitc delusional kid who thinks he is offering profound and inspiring insight. He has zero charisma and holds no influence over his players. Queen ran right through him 1 month into the season
. Also ask yourself how this fool keeps allowing his team to fail with massive 4th Q leads. They run nothing on Offense in crunch time, does nothing to get Queen going offensively. He's supposed to be a Defensive coach, yet allowed didn't double Dirk in games 2 or 4, only having Bosh on him for game 2. - Now look at Carlisle, a 51 year old vet who's been in the business as HC for 10 years. 3 Conference Finals as a coach, NBA champion with Celtics as a player. His demeanor absolutely never changes and he is a stoic and calming presence for his players, which no doubt guides them and keeps them cool through all of these comebacks. On Defense, he is making the right calls to double at the right time. On Offense, he is calling the plays to put his players in position. Quality insight on his plays sparking game 2 comeback found here: http://nbaplaybook.com/2011/06/03/th...llas-comeback/
Any self-respecting player would have put up or shut up, instead she deflects responsibility. Queen also says she wins with defense. Oh? So what about 66.67% from Terry in game 5 for 21 points and the two clinching 3s shot right in Queen's face? She is Wade's bitch, follows him everywhere, copies his clothing, mocks Dirk after Wade starts it. Also, rumor is that Queen's girl is getting piped by Rashard Lewis. First, Jordan wouldn't allow that shit for a second. Second, Jordan, or any other great player, blocks all of the off court shit out and delivers no matter what. Not Queen. Queen is a broken player and has always been a pussbag.7) Miami is not ready for this. The only chance they have is if Wade goes off for 40 and the refs channel their inner 2006 and he gets 25 throws. Queen broken. Bosh sounds defeated in post game and rivals Queen for the biggest bitch in the league. Spoelstra sounds shaken, knows he is in way over his head now. Also, no chance in hell worthless fat fuk Eric Dampier wins a ring against the Mavericks after he didn't do shit for the Mavs when he played with them from 04-10. Karma, you fat fuk, for sucking ass all those years.
8) Refs will favor Dallas, if anybody. We saw it clear as day in game 3, and game 5 had some qusetionable calls go Mavs way. Cuban hasn't said a word all series and largely hasn't even been shown on TV in the crowd. He knows damn well his team benefits when he shuts up, and it has worked so far. Refs give some back to Dallas after 2006.
9) Those saying NBA will get a game 7 for sure have not a clue. It is a pipe dream conspiracy belief that NBA will always get what it wants. Just look at history. 2006 3-2 Heat going into 6 could have easily gone 7, Heat close out and the refs favored them, not the Mavs for a game 7. 2007 Spurs sweep Queen for lowest rated Finals of all-time. 2008 Celtics-Lakers would have been a great 7 game series, Celtics win in 6 by 40 points. 2009 Lakers win in 5 for a boring Finals. How many game 7s in the Finals did Jordan have? 0.
10) Those saying that opening +6 for game 6 is a trap to take Mavs, look what happened in 06. Dallas was -6 in game 6 at home after being -5.5 and -4.5 in games 1 and 2. covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/pastresults/2005-2006/team404047.html Heat won SU. This year Miami was -5 and -4.5 (about) in games 1 and 2, now opened -6 in the same way. Books antcipate a bounce back for home team is all, not a "trap".
Dallas completes the greatest postseason run of all time
