After much contemplation, I am rolling with the Heat -5 tonight.
I see the Bulls coming in with a solid gameplan. The key for the Bulls is to get easy buckets in transition, much like I said the Thunder needed to do in the first half last night. Rose needs to create fast breaks out of nothing because the Bulls half-court offense is non-existent when you have 2 of the best perimeter defenders in the world containing each wing. I expect Noah to be more involved offensively this game. I don't see Boozer duplicating his performance from game 3, with 7 offensive rebounds. He may score 25 tonight but I doubt he grabs that many offensive rebounds. The Heat are giving Boozer the midrange jumper and he's just been hesitant to take it, I think he needs to use that part of his game for the Bulls to have a shot.
I expect Rose to have a better performance as well, but if you make him a volume shooter, you live with that. I'd rather see Rose taking 25 shots as a Miami better than dishing out 10 assists. I think this is a game where you see Rose trying to force the issue a bit because of a lack of trust in his teammates. Luol Deng has probably been the Bulls best player in this series. The guy is a consistent 17+ points nearly every game and plays better defense on Lebron than anyone I have seen guarding Lebron since he came into the league. No one is going to stop Lebron, but Deng as a perimeter defender is as solid as they come.
The Bulls bench will have a decent game but I really dont' see then coming in with the necessary spark to win this game. CJ Watson is a good player that has been underutilized. Korver is a knock down shooter, but he's just too much of a defensive liability. Thibbedeu hasn't been very smart with his rotations, you need to bring Korver in the game to try and check a guy like Mike Miller or James Jones, not Dwayne Wade.
Brewer has also been a difference maker on the defensive end, somewhat containing Dwayne Wade, although its a team effort of course. I checked in Sweet Jones thread and he gave us info that Wade was seen shooting around last night for a few hours. I expect Dwayne Wade to really shine in this game for the following reasons.
1) I believe Thibedeu thinks that Bogans and Brewer can do a decent job on Wade 1 on 1
2) Therefore, You don't need to load up on that side of the Wing
3) Consequently, you can load up on Lebrons side AND load up on the elbows/middle of the key to prevent the easy midrange jumpshots.
Essentially, Thibbs may sacrifice clogging the middle of the key for 1 on 1 defense on Wade.
Probably a mistake. I don't know if Thibbs will do this, or he will go with the same gameplan, and make Bosh and Haslem beat the Bulls with midrange jumpers.
Either way, I think the Bulls are in trouble because while their defense is fine (just about as good as your going to get having to guard 2 of the 3 best players in the world), their offense is just plain bad. Noah and Bogans are two offensive liabilities. Miami only has 1 guy on the court like that in Joel Anthony.
Besides Haslem, Miami's bench has been nonexistent in this series and they haven't even needed them. Personally, I did not like the 8 man rotation Spolstra went with in game 3. Frankly, it was a joke. If he goes with the same lineup, I can only hope a guy like Mike Miller can knock down his first 3 in ages. I expect Chalmers and Bibby to play well, and for Wade and James to take over the defensive duty of guarding Rose in big moments in the 4th quarter.
The Miami Heat are a team that really goes as Dwayne Wade goes. Whatever you might think about Lebron, Wade is their leader. Lebron and Bosh both look up to Wade. When he has it going, I have no doubts that its going to spark not only the crowd, but the Heat bench and both Lebron and Bosh.
Overall, I expect the Bulls to play well, with energy, get rebounds and go out and run. However, I just think they have to pick their poison, and tonight just might be one of those nights where if Wade's or Lebron's jumpshot is falling, there's not much you can do. The Heat are going to get more free throws pretty much every game- they have 2 of the top 5 guys in the league at getting to the free throw line for the last 7 years, and the Bulls don't- so haters, please don't even bring this up.
Miami -5 Risking $330
I see the Bulls coming in with a solid gameplan. The key for the Bulls is to get easy buckets in transition, much like I said the Thunder needed to do in the first half last night. Rose needs to create fast breaks out of nothing because the Bulls half-court offense is non-existent when you have 2 of the best perimeter defenders in the world containing each wing. I expect Noah to be more involved offensively this game. I don't see Boozer duplicating his performance from game 3, with 7 offensive rebounds. He may score 25 tonight but I doubt he grabs that many offensive rebounds. The Heat are giving Boozer the midrange jumper and he's just been hesitant to take it, I think he needs to use that part of his game for the Bulls to have a shot.
I expect Rose to have a better performance as well, but if you make him a volume shooter, you live with that. I'd rather see Rose taking 25 shots as a Miami better than dishing out 10 assists. I think this is a game where you see Rose trying to force the issue a bit because of a lack of trust in his teammates. Luol Deng has probably been the Bulls best player in this series. The guy is a consistent 17+ points nearly every game and plays better defense on Lebron than anyone I have seen guarding Lebron since he came into the league. No one is going to stop Lebron, but Deng as a perimeter defender is as solid as they come.
The Bulls bench will have a decent game but I really dont' see then coming in with the necessary spark to win this game. CJ Watson is a good player that has been underutilized. Korver is a knock down shooter, but he's just too much of a defensive liability. Thibbedeu hasn't been very smart with his rotations, you need to bring Korver in the game to try and check a guy like Mike Miller or James Jones, not Dwayne Wade.
Brewer has also been a difference maker on the defensive end, somewhat containing Dwayne Wade, although its a team effort of course. I checked in Sweet Jones thread and he gave us info that Wade was seen shooting around last night for a few hours. I expect Dwayne Wade to really shine in this game for the following reasons.
1) I believe Thibedeu thinks that Bogans and Brewer can do a decent job on Wade 1 on 1
2) Therefore, You don't need to load up on that side of the Wing
3) Consequently, you can load up on Lebrons side AND load up on the elbows/middle of the key to prevent the easy midrange jumpshots.
Essentially, Thibbs may sacrifice clogging the middle of the key for 1 on 1 defense on Wade.
Probably a mistake. I don't know if Thibbs will do this, or he will go with the same gameplan, and make Bosh and Haslem beat the Bulls with midrange jumpers. Either way, I think the Bulls are in trouble because while their defense is fine (just about as good as your going to get having to guard 2 of the 3 best players in the world), their offense is just plain bad. Noah and Bogans are two offensive liabilities. Miami only has 1 guy on the court like that in Joel Anthony.
Besides Haslem, Miami's bench has been nonexistent in this series and they haven't even needed them. Personally, I did not like the 8 man rotation Spolstra went with in game 3. Frankly, it was a joke. If he goes with the same lineup, I can only hope a guy like Mike Miller can knock down his first 3 in ages. I expect Chalmers and Bibby to play well, and for Wade and James to take over the defensive duty of guarding Rose in big moments in the 4th quarter.
The Miami Heat are a team that really goes as Dwayne Wade goes. Whatever you might think about Lebron, Wade is their leader. Lebron and Bosh both look up to Wade. When he has it going, I have no doubts that its going to spark not only the crowd, but the Heat bench and both Lebron and Bosh.
Overall, I expect the Bulls to play well, with energy, get rebounds and go out and run. However, I just think they have to pick their poison, and tonight just might be one of those nights where if Wade's or Lebron's jumpshot is falling, there's not much you can do. The Heat are going to get more free throws pretty much every game- they have 2 of the top 5 guys in the league at getting to the free throw line for the last 7 years, and the Bulls don't- so haters, please don't even bring this up.
Miami -5 Risking $330
