You all are the reason why Miami lines are so inflated

[dwluv3333]

Seriously so many people on this forum just blindly think the Heat will win (with only 1 reason, LBJ/Wade/Bosh) and don't even consider the factors that are in Chicago's favor that equalize the odds a bit.

Thanks for making the lines more favorable for the Bulls from here on.

That being said what do you guys think of this 5pt teaser

GM2 OKC +10.5
GM3 CHI +10.5

55.00 to win 50.00

[BernardMadoff]

Comical, you make a thread starting with "sharp" rhetoric and end it sqaurish talking about teasers.

[dwluv3333]

Comical, you make a thread starting with "sharp" rhetoric and end it sqaurish talking about teasers.

How are teasers squarish?

[Gtawatson]

lets go heat! lets go heat! lets go heat! lets go heat! lets go heat! lets go heat! lets go heat! lets go heat! lets go heat! lets go heat! lets go heat!

[M.W.]

Seriously so many people on this forum just blindly think the Heat will win (with only 1 reason, LBJ/Wade/Bosh)....

Aren't those three reasons?

[BernardMadoff]

How are teasers squarish?

Because the book is asking for more than they're willing to give, remember you have to hit both. Without even getting into how much the points cost that you're buying, there are four different ways a two-teamer can go, both win, both lose, either lose. Simple odds say you have a 25% chance of hitting one without any knowledge of whatever is at stake. If I wasn't sure about which side I wanted just make your best guess before game and do live in play during game and hedge if you feel you need to.

[dwluv3333]

Aren't those three reasons?

Depends how you look at it I guess, though using each player individually as a reason is probably a poor argument to make

[dwluv3333]

Because the book is asking for more than they're willing to give, remember you have to hit both. Without even getting into how much the points cost that you're buying, there are four different ways a two-teamer can go, both win, both lose, either lose. Simple odds say you have a 25% chance of hitting one without any knowledge of whatever is at stake. If I wasn't sure about which side I wanted just make your best guess before game and do elves play during game and hedge if you feel you need to.

While I do agree you get less value than you put in (all bets do this to a degree) its not like sports betting is a casino where hitting a one game spread is exactly 50%. you have to incorporate other factors into the "probability", like okc losing the last game by 10 points despite a near perfect game by dirk, or a team being motivated by a hard loss, etc.

[pittmatt80]

I like the teaser you just have to worry about the Mav's blowing out OKC. But I think they win by 6-8, Good Luck.

[Pivotpoint]

Books love parlay bettors. Tough enough to beat the odds with straight bets. Parlays, whether teased or not just grind the bank roll down, long term. Fund an account and practice money mgt with straight bets and you'll stay live longer. At first glance, both games at +10.5 look good. If you need 10.5 to feel comfortable with Thunder, why not lay 5 with the Mavs?

[BernardMadoff]

Books love parlay bettors. Tough enough to beat the odds with straight bets. Parlays, whether teased or not just grind the bank roll down, long term. Fund an account and practice money mgt with straight bets and you'll stay live longer. At first glance, both games at +10.5 look good. If you need 10.5 to feel comfortable with Thunder, why not lay 5 with the Mavs?

Nah, they dont like parlays really, they love those who bet teasers. Many people do 7-8-9 game parlays for 30 bucks and hit big, books hate that, but they know youre not getting value with teasers. If you have a even say a 1k bankroll and study pretty good, and do about ten 7 game parlays at $20 bucks @ about -110 it pays over $1700, not impossible at all to hit with that many tries, books hate having to pay that much value.

[dwluv3333]

Nah, they dont like parlays really, they love those who bet teasers. Many people do 7-8-9 game parlays for 30 bucks and hit big, books hate that, but they know youre not getting value with teasers. If you have a even say a 1k bankroll and study pretty good, and do about ten 7 game parlays at $20 bucks @ about -110 it pays over $1700, not impossible at all to hit with that many tries, books hate having to pay that much value.

Ok, I'm pretty sure you're way underestimating how hard it is to hit a 7 game parlay at -110 per game. No way will you on average hit that in ten tries.

Also whats this about value? I thought you said that anything but straight bets are a rip off, I guarantee u the payout by a book for a 7 game parlay at -110 is way less than (2^7)/1.

[BernardMadoff]

Ok, I'm pretty sure you're way underestimating how hard it is to hit a 7 game parlay at -110 per game. No way will you on average hit that in ten tries.

Also whats this about value? I thought you said that anything but straight bets are a rip off, I guarantee u the payout by a book for a 7 game parlay at -110 is way less than (2^7)/1.

How can you guarantee me? Did you put it in? I did and some of the selections were higher than -110, so actually Im sure it pays out over $1,800. And its not as hard as you may think given enough tries, whose to say you wont hit on the first try let alone the 4th, 9th or 12th, but Id take my chances doing that over doing alot of teasers.

[BernardMadoff]

Ok, I'm pretty sure you're way underestimating how hard it is to hit a 7 game parlay at -110 per game. No way will you on average hit that in ten tries.

Also whats this about value? I thought you said that anything but straight bets are a rip off, I guarantee u the payout by a book for a 7 game parlay at -110 is way less than (2^7)/1.

Umm 2 to the 7th power divided by 1? Where did you get that from, makes no sense.

[dwluv3333]

The probability of -110 hitting is 50%. The probability of two -110s hitting is 25% = 4/1 = (2^2)/1 ... Probability of three -110 hitting is 12.5% = 8/1= (2^3)/1 .... So 7 games would be 2^7 to 1 payout with completely fair odds. So 20 dollars should get you 2560 if u win.

[BernardMadoff]

The probability of -110 hitting is 50%. The probability of two -110s hitting is 25% = 4/1 = (2^2)/1 ... Probability of three -110 hitting is 12.5% = 8/1= (2^3)/1 .... So 7 games would be 2^7 to 1 payout with completely fair odds. So 20 dollars should get you 2560 if u win.

Books dont calculate payouts like that, figure this, 1 two-teamer @ -110 pays 2.6/1.

[dwluv3333]

Yeah exactly... So that's how they make money off parlays... It's their juice... Hence parlays are huge payout but not up the value they should be...

[BernardMadoff]

Yeah exactly... So that's how they make money off parlays... It's their juice... Hence parlays are huge payout but not up the value they should be...

Of course its not up to the value it SHOULD be in a perfect world, but there are plenty of people who play 6,7 and even higher game parlays for very small and hit. Even if you have a 1k bankroll, would it really hurt to try a few a day for such a good payout, many do, many hit some, still gotta, study, cap, maybe get a little lucky and hope for the best.

[dwluv3333]

I would have to respectfully disagree. It's hard for me to even hit 4 team ml parlays with 200s and 300s thrown in. There's almost always an upset in the NBA every day. No matter how much you study, the players have to execute and sometimes don't.

[BernardMadoff]

I would have to respectfully disagree. It's hard for me to even hit 4 team ml parlays with 200s and 300s thrown in. There's almost always an upset in the NBA every day. No matter how much you study, the players have to execute and sometimes don't.

Im not particularly talking playing all basketball or any basketball, but picking over any sport you want to. Look there are people on this site that do this, ask Golden greek how may 6+ teamers he's hit this year or this season.