OKC/Dallas Game 2 Total is scary and here's why......

[NBA_Brosuf]

because there is the word UNDER in thUNDER.

LOL

ok, I just thought to say that for a laugh.

over or under? Left or right? May the best bloke wins.

[kobstopa]

over

[NBA_Brosuf]

over

I really like your yellow model projection and I'm sure you get this a lot but like do you have a simulator that tells you the points for each game or what?

I know accuscores has a simulator that they uses to pick the NFL winners.

[kobstopa]

I really like your yellow model projection and I'm sure you get this a lot but like do you have a simulator that tells you the points for each game or what?

I know accuscores has a simulator that they uses to pick the NFL winners.

as reveal at 2+2 forum:

the projection is based on various factors build around team matchup + games record, home court factor, rebounding, assist etc. I got a nice little CRAY CX1 super computer with oracle database.



I had the pleasure of met the man himself once 15 years ago - Seymore Cray the inventor & founder. I think he died from a car crash not long ago too, RIP.

________________________________________ _________
-Also a lot to do with a good feel of the game at a coaching level
-look at shooting chart of previous games
-have access to team scout info
-access to game playbook & playset ; the rest are just construct basic game plan etc
-a collective of reading & analysis from forum such as:

http://www.negativedunkalectics.com/

http://www.sloansportsconference.com/panels-2/2010-2/basketball-analytics/

http://nbaplaybook.com/

if you inspire to be a GM, then look at here

http://www.nbastuffer.com/index.php

and just eat, sleep and dreaming basketball

[Anthonyg7]

*Copy/Pasted from my thread.

According to pregame, 80% are on the over. According to scoresandodds, 86% are on the over. Clearly, the totals bets are lopsided. Reverse line movement here, may make a small play on the under. I never feel comfortable playing totals with OKC.. they have burned me all season as well as this post season. I can't resist staying away from the under here with a 1.5 point reverse swing. Will wait for tomorrow to see how the line continues to move.

05/18 04:57 PM 200 -108 200 -1020
5/18 02:33 PM 199½ -113 199½ +1020
5/18 09:04 AM 199½ -110 199½ +1000
5/18 09:03 AM 199½ -109 199½ -1010
5/18 08:13 AM 199½ -105 199½ -1050
5/18 08:12 AM 198½ -113 198½ +102
05/18 08:09 AM 198½ -110 198½ +100

[NBA_Brosuf]

and here, I thought you use madden simulator games to project your futures.

LOL

You are totally in too deep and it shows because you're a winner.

[NBA_Brosuf]

*Copy/Pasted from my thread.

According to pregame, 80% are on the over. According to scoresandodds, 86% are on the over. Clearly, the totals bets are lopsided. Reverse line movement here, may make a small play on the under. I never feel comfortable playing totals with OKC.. they have burned me all season as well as this post season. I can't resist staying away from the under here with a 1.5 point reverse swing. Will wait for tomorrow to see how the line continues to move.

05/18 04:57 PM 200 -108 200 -1020
5/18 02:33 PM 199½ -113 199½ +1020
5/18 09:04 AM 199½ -110 199½ +1000
5/18 09:03 AM 199½ -109 199½ -1010
5/18 08:13 AM 199½ -105 199½ -1050
5/18 08:12 AM 198½ -113 198½ +102
05/18 08:09 AM 198½ -110 198½ +100

I'm seeing that bookmaker opens it at 197.5

If one is to play the over, value is when you buy it low, not high. It is either buy there or no play.

Now with the under play, will 200 be the highest or late money is gonna be on the over which will give the under backers more value at half a point to possible 201?

The waiting game it is....

[JOHON8]

Game 1 was pretty ridiculous so if you expect the ridiculousness to continue then take the over, otherwise this game should technically go under the line.

[NBA_Brosuf]

Game 1 was pretty ridiculous so if you expect the ridiculousness to continue then take the over, otherwise this game should technically go under the line.

Ridiculous on which ball club? OKC or Dallas?

OKC is a ball club that can spot up 100+ points per game, ridiculous or not, they will not die and will bump points. Dallas on the other hand, if it is not for the ridiculous to happen, I wonder if they can even get 100 point per game.

OKC in this playoff alone is 9 games with 100+ and 4 games under 100+.

Dallas in this playoff alone is 4 games with 100+ and 7 games under 100+

Over backers has to worry about Dallas packing points. If luck, zebras and the amazing things happening is not on your side, can Dallas give us another 100+ points?

Something to ponder about.

[blackbox]

HECK the way that Westbrook and Durant are shooting and the fact Dirk is on fire I am taking over 198 tonight. gl all

[Love The Action]

*Copy/Pasted from my thread.

According to pregame, 80% are on the over. According to scoresandodds, 86% are on the over. Clearly, the totals bets are lopsided. Reverse line movement here, may make a small play on the under. I never feel comfortable playing totals with OKC.. they have burned me all season as well as this post season. I can't resist staying away from the under here with a 1.5 point reverse swing. Will wait for tomorrow to see how the line continues to move.

05/18 04:57 PM 200 -108 200 -1020
5/18 02:33 PM 199½ -113 199½ +1020
5/18 09:04 AM 199½ -110 199½ +1000
5/18 09:03 AM 199½ -109 199½ -1010
5/18 08:13 AM 199½ -105 199½ -1050
5/18 08:12 AM 198½ -113 198½ +102
05/18 08:09 AM 198½ -110 198½ +100

Anthony...you have it in reverse my friend. The total opened at 198 and shot all the way up to 200. That basically means all the money, even early money, has been on the over. There has been no RLM for this game yet. If you like the under, I suggest you wait to see if the line ends up coming down, in which case that would be some RLM.

[Love The Action]

I think you need to just follow the money on this one...as of now, that would mean over. However, someone could have been hitting the over in order to get a better line on the under. I think if we see the line drop, take the under. If you see it stay at 200 or more, jump on the over. Either way, however, you should play this game light. No more than one unit.

[Johnny 55]

RLM is not applicable in the NBA and also has been found to have very little effect on totals.

[natethagreat]

Games gonna be crazy scoring once again.

[Love The Action]

RLM is not applicable in the NBA and also has been found to have very little effect on totals.

Rlm is but one tool of many to use when capping totals. However, I would put more weight on it in the regular season than the post season. I would completely disagree with your blanket statement that it doesn't apply to nba whatsoever. That's just a silly comment.