Can someone explain taking the over?

[T40]

Can anyone explain why anyone would take the over when these are the stats for the under? I'd like to take the over myself, but how can I justify it aginst these stats?

San Antonio
Under is 6-0 in Spurs last 6 vs. NBA Pacific.
Under is 7-0 in Spurs last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 6-0 in Spurs last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.
Under is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 games as a road underdog.
Under is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Under is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 games as an underdog.
Under is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Under is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 Conference Finals games.
Under is 7-0 in Spurs last 7 overall.
Under is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 playoff games as an underdog.
Under is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 road games.
Under is 7-0 in Spurs last 7 vs. Western Conference.
Under is 4-1 in Spurs last 5 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5.
Under is 7-2 in Spurs last 9 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5.
Under is 7-2 in Spurs last 9 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5.
Under is 36-15 in Spurs last 51 games following a S.U. loss.
Under is 11-5 in Spurs last 16 Thursday games.


L.A. Lakers
Under is 4-0 in Lakers last 4 vs. NBA Southwest.
Under is 4-0 in Lakers last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 7-0 in Lakers last 7 Thursday games.
Under is 4-0 in Lakers last 4 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Under is 4-0 in Lakers last 4 Conference Finals games.
Under is 4-0 in Lakers last 4 overall.
Under is 4-0 in Lakers last 4 vs. Western Conference.
Under is 7-1 in Lakers last 8 games following a ATS win.
Under is 8-2 in Lakers last 10 games following a S.U. win.
Under is 5-2 in Lakers last 7 games playing on 1 days rest.

Head to Head
Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Los Angeles.

[Pick'nParlays]

im on the over

[strictlywinners]

Ok here is breif explanation. All of those nice little trends you have posted mean nothing. Every game is different and for some reason as soon as public or average Joe catches on to a trend is when the "trend" "tends" to switch, everyone and their mother is on this under yet line hasn't dropped.

Reason 2 why it goes over, every game has went under so far right, which means that the game has been at the spurs pace and they have still been losing. Coach POP realizes this he is very smart and the only way to beat the Lakers in this series is to outscore them, look for San Antonio to push and force tempo tonight.

[diogee]

Ok here is breif explanation. All of those nice little trends you have posted mean nothing. Every game is different and for some reason as soon as public or average Joe catches on to a trend is when the "trend" "tends" to switch, everyone and their mother is on this under yet line hasn't dropped.

Reason 2 why it goes over, every game has went under so far right, which means that the game has been at the spurs pace and they have still been losing. Coach POP realizes this he is very smart and the only way to beat the Lakers in this series is to outscore them, look for San Antonio to push and force tempo tonight.

Nicely put SW. My thinking was Lakers will play up and down ball instead of the Spurs pace...then comes exactly what you stated.

[ryanXL977]

the spurs know perfectly well they cant win at the lakers pace

i aint touching the over, everything points to the under and people are ignoring that

[chipski]

last game should have been ot , maybe this one will be ot .
lakers should play fast pace game big time and try and wear out the old spurs .
makes perfect sense . lakers can shoot a high % at home . like shooting in your backyard , everything falls in .
if the spurs make it to 93 ,94 pts it should go over .

[BigOrangeTitans]

im thinking 1h over

[strictlywinners]

the spurs know perfectly well they cant win at the lakers pace

i aint touching the over, everything points to the under and people are ignoring that

Spurs can't win at the spurs pace if you haven't been watching. Every game has went under and they still keep losing. The only game they won is when they scored therefore they need to score to win. They will push the ball tonight Manu is goig to be extra aggresive and so is that lil french **** tony parker.

Also don't forget that the NBA has publicly stated that they blew the call at the end of game 4 look for this game to be called much much tighter and maybe even a little in the Spurs favor to make up for it.

[unde0087]

Ok here is breif explanation. All of those nice little trends you have posted mean nothing. Every game is different and for some reason as soon as public or average Joe catches on to a trend is when the "trend" "tends" to switch, everyone and their mother is on this under yet line hasn't dropped.

Reason 2 why it goes over, every game has went under so far right, which means that the game has been at the spurs pace and they have still been losing. Coach POP realizes this he is very smart and the only way to beat the Lakers in this series is to outscore them, look for San Antonio to push and force tempo tonight.

I couldnt disagree more. Although I do normally respect what strictlywinners says I can't see Pop trying to run with the Lakers because he knows that would send them home tonight. Spurs are much too old to run and gun and Pop knows that is the game Lakers will win. When have you ever witnessed Pop play to the other teams strength? The reason we could see an over here is it is an elimination game which tend to be higher scoring as the team doesn't want to go home so they try and extend the game. That is about the only support for an over because these two teams play good defense against one another and that is expected with two championship caliber teams.

I don't know, although each game is alittle different the smart play is the under because you just can't ignore the massive under streaks both teams come in on when playing each other. If I have learned one thing that is Spurs almost always play at their pace because they are well coached and have a veteran team. That is why they have won so many championships lately, defense. They will probably lose this series because Spurs are no longer the best because they are too old now and will get beat by a better, faster team in the Lakers.

Good luck to those going with the over

[chipski]

Spurs can't win at the spurs pace if you haven't been watching. Every game has went under and they still keep losing. The only game they won is when they scored therefore they need to score to win. They will push the ball tonight Manu is goig to be extra aggresive and so is that lil french **** tony parker.

Also don't forget that the NBA has publicly stated that they blew the call at the end of game 4 look for this game to be called much much tighter and maybe even a little in the Spurs favor to make up for it.

true that .

calls in spurs favor .
also more $ for the network and leauge to have a game 6 . who knows .

[blupofol]

though not a strong play, i think that the over is the play here. quite the opposite reason than what others are thinking though. in fact, I think that Pop tries to shorten the game up with a bunch of 20-second possessions offensively. TD was tired as a dog in game 4, and you KNOW he's going 40+ today as well. if anything the 1st half under might be a decent play.
i see the spurs hanging tight for 2-3 quarters and then getting the snot beat out of them in the 4th. both benches have guys that can shoot and i expect a chucking contest with 6 minutes left. i'm looking in the range of 105-90. yeah, i realize that's right about at the number. like I said, weak play.

IF SA does pull this out, i just can't imagine it coming from the defensive end. don't think they have the legs left for 4 quarters of D. it will be b/c a few of those guys punch in a dozen threes. again bumping up the score.

this will be my first play of the series. lakers laying the points. that was a 2-point "blow out" tuesday. what was lost in "non-call-gate" was that the spurs were outhustled and outplayed at home.

[ryanXL977]

they will not be able to run with la
nobody can, especially the spurs

[unde0087]

though not a strong play, i think that the over is the play here. quite the opposite reason than what others are thinking though. in fact, I think that Pop tries to shorten the game up with a bunch of 20-second possessions offensively. TD was tired as a dog in game 4, and you KNOW he's going 40+ today as well. if anything the 1st half under might be a decent play.
i see the spurs hanging tight for 2-3 quarters and then getting the snot beat out of them in the 4th. both benches have guys that can shoot and i expect a chucking contest with 6 minutes left. i'm looking in the range of 105-90. yeah, i realize that's right about at the number. like I said, weak play.

IF SA does pull this out, i just can't imagine it coming from the defensive end. don't think they have the legs left for 4 quarters of D. it will be b/c a few of those guys punch in a dozen threes. again bumping up the score.

this will be my first play of the series. lakers laying the points. that was a 2-point "blow out" tuesday. what was lost in "non-call-gate" was that the spurs were outhustled and outplayed at home.

You don't think Spurs have over come adversity before? I agree the Lakers are better than them this season but I think everyone is underestimating this team for all its accomplishments. I think we will see a good effort from the Spurs tonight. Maybe I will be proven wrong tonight but just can't see Spurs laying down tonight, not with all the pride they have on that team. This team is full of veterans that have seen just about anything and I would be shocked to see this team get blown out. If anything that no call will motivate this team even more.

[BrUno0]

they will not be able to run with la
nobody can, especially the spurs

because game 1, 3, and 4 just somehow don't matter or exist, right?

[chipski]

remember hearing the announcer during the lakers game say how the lakers were underrated defensively ....
trying to make much sense of picking an o/u can be a joke .
the pistons at celtics last night was the 2 best defensive teams / defensive minded and they both broke the century mark in scoring , 106 - 102 .

in game 1 of the det at bos series the score was 88 - 79 = under by 7 pts .
in game 2 they came back and det broke the century mark 103 - 97 = over by 28 pts .
sooo ? makes no sense and why should it .

the reason game 3 went under in sa , the one game the spurs won is because the lakers did not hold their end of the bargain in scoring . lakers only scored 84 pts .
spurs broke the centruty mark 103 - 84 = under by 5 pts .

so what if the lakers had hit a couple more 3 pters and it went over . tonight has nothing to do with any of the prior games in if it will go over or under .

last year in the west finals jazz vs spurs > 4 of the 5 games went OVER .
the one game to finish under was game 4 at utah because utah only scored 79 pts .

is a reflection , what it means i dont know really , nba is fixed i do know that and so do you . soooo ? can be a total joke in what occurs .

[unde0087]

look at the trends on the top, and then tell me that from game to game there isn't a pattern. Sure looks like it to me.

[ryanXL977]

as stated
how would this go over

[unde0087]

nice winner on the under

[pat venditto]

over 2nd half cashed

[ryanXL977]

every damned la vs spurs game is under
why would this one be diff? as if the spurs can run now?

[MiamiBoy86]

soooo close....seriously, duncan makes 2 or 3 foul shots its over and everyone is left scratching their heads....

[ryanXL977]

true

[unde0087]

not really, I mean look at how many points they had to score in that final quarter to come within a few of the over, there wasn't a chance that game was going over

[unde0087]

the only thing I was worried about was overtime, that was the only chance that game had to going over after the 3rd quarter, i mean LA score damn near 40 in the 4th and it still didn't get there

[chipski]

nice layout and insight as it did go under again . the lakers are underrated on d it appears .