*****Miami heat win game 2, thank me later******

[GunShard]

I have a set of rules that I use to gamble.
Here's one of them that applies here:

"#2 Bet because you can win. Never bet for the action or just because it's your favorite team. Be selective. Pick your spots and wait for the right opportunity."

[bigp69]

Well see once the heat win what everyone has to say

[politicin]

The write up is bad. When you have Bosh step up for 30 and 9 and you lose by 21 points you're finished. Lebron and Wade will continue to be forced to take tough shots and maybe one of them goes off to have a nice game, most likely LBJ. It still won't be enough. Chicago didn't shoot 65% here. This isn't like the Hornet/Laker series. Everything Chicago did was normal, and truthfully other than 3 point shooting, their offense didn't look as good as it is capable of. We're still going to out rebound you, we're still going to have more depth than you. We're still going to have a way better and more disciplined defensive minded coach than you. Things aren't going to slow down, and truthfully I expect them to CRANK UP the energy on defense and continue this. The 1-3, 1-4 pnrs they are beginning to implement are nothing short of genius and the danger they pose on Miami is unbelievable. You will see Chicago scoring at will tonight and Miami will continue to have a tough time. Coach T will not let this one slip away. This isn't like dumping a game to the Hawks. Coach T smells blood, the whole team smells blood and they will head to Miami up 2-0.

[suicidekings]

Heres a few reasons why I think miami wins:

- Lebron and Wade are very likely to have big games. You can only contain these guys for so long. Anyone who disagrees that they are 2 of the most explosive scorers in the game are delusional. - No one is denying their skills, but the Bulls will contest every shot they take from the midrange out, and put a body in them early and often every time they try to penetrate. I think they'll collectively score more today than in Game 1, but that means maybe 45-50pts between them.

- Chris bosh stepping up last game is huge! If Lebron steps up now as well thats a recipe for success. - If you think that Bosh will have another big game AND Wade/Lebron will also have big nights, then you must be assuming the Chicago defense is just going to take the night off... Ridiculous. They MIGHT combine for 60-65 points between the 3 of them.

- They turned over the ball way to many times last game, which could have been a result of Chicago's superior play in game 1, but it wont occur again at least to the extent it did last game. - Chicago turned the ball over repeatedly in the first half and the Heat got a free 10 points from it. Both teams will be more careful with the ball today.

- Expect better rebounding from the heat - No. The Heat are severely outmanned in the paint. They probably won't give up 19 offensive rebounds again, but the total rebound margin will still be in the Bulls favour.

Everyone is entitled to their own opinion but that is my analyis. To all of you bangwagoners saying ZOMG CHICAGO BEAT THEM BY 20 POINTS THIS SERIES IS OVER!!! Your in for a rude awakening

LEGGGGOOOOOO HEATTTTTTT

I can pretty much summarize all your points with the phrase "I think/hope they'll play better tonight". And it's true, I think they will play better in Game 2. But despite coming into Game 1 energized and ready to play, their gameplan quickly fell apart as soon as the Bulls second unit came into the game. The Heat second unit can't compete with the Bulls, and have been publicly embarrassed by Dwayne Wade's comments at the post game press conference when he said they had to play harder. Let's see how much effort they bring tonight...

I think the only way the Heat win this game is if Lebron/Wade/Bosh all play 40+ minutes of high intensity ball at both ends of the floor. They're outmanned in the paint severely, so they need to score from outside, getting good looks and playing efficiently. The question is, is it worthwhile for the team to kill themselves trying to keep up with the high energy Bulls defensive unit for 48 minutes only to have it wear them down for Games 3 & 4 at home? Game 3 is vastly more important for the Heat to win than Game 2. If they still lose tonight and aren't 100% in the next game, the series could get ugly fast.

NB: I'm not a homer or on the bandwagon. Just telling it how I see it.

[ReignMaker]

basketball wise, I think the Bulls should win. But as a gambler looking at the lines, -2.5 seems too low at home after how Bulls dominated the Heat on game 1. I'm thinking it's a trick so people will bet on Bulls. I'm on the Heat also! BOL!

[suicidekings]

basketball wise, I think the Bulls should win. But as a gambler looking at the lines, -2.5 seems too low at home after how Bulls dominated the Heat on game 1. I'm thinking it's a trick so people will bet on Bulls. I'm on the Heat also! BOL!

Just like -1.5 was too low in Game 1. Clearly a trap.

[blackeyeshamus]

bron bron, d-wade, and cb4 better wire up and charge tonight!
booked the heat +3 @ -120, but I would like to see an outright win,
and I don't have any clever composition detailing my logic...
I'm just rolling the dice over here! let's clock dollars, homeskillet!

[twelvejewelz]

basketball wise, I think the Bulls should win. But as a gambler looking at the lines, -2.5 seems too low at home after how Bulls dominated the Heat on game 1. I'm thinking it's a trick so people will bet on Bulls. I'm on the Heat also! BOL!

I think the heat are still a big public favorite, they cant possibly lose game 2 and if the public is getting more points well hey they just might like the heat more..

[El Sol]

I really like the Heat 1qtr at +105, then depending on the line, play bulls 2nd qtr

[ReignMaker]

Just like -1.5 was too low in Game 1. Clearly a trap.

But that was game 1, before people had an idea how the Bulls and Heat would play against each other in the playoffs. Things are different for game 2 after a big convincing win in game 1. Yet, the line is similar to game 1.

[politicin]

But that was game 1, before people had an idea how the Bulls and Heat would play against each other in the playoffs. Things are different for game 2 after a big convincing win in game 1. Yet, the line is similar to game 1.

And yet Vegas still got its job done with action split relatively down the middle. Get it? Miami is a huge public goat.

[ReignMaker]

And yet Vegas still got its job done with action split relatively down the middle. Get it? Miami is a huge public goat.

I'm not saying it's a sure thing. It's a tough call. But as far as "Miami being a huge public goat", I think Bulls is a huge public goat also. People love Rose and the Bulls.

[suicidekings]

But that was game 1, before people had an idea how the Bulls and Heat would play against each other in the playoffs. Things are different for game 2 after a big convincing win in game 1. Yet, the line is similar to game 1.

The Bulls huge edge in bench players, rebounding, and coaching were known quantities prior to game 1. Anyone that actually looked into the matchups for this series without bias would come to the same conclusion. Taking the Heat required faith in the Big 3 being good enough that they would be able to overcome these disparities and that the Heat bench would perform better than they have all season.

The line came out the same as in Game 1 because it's the correct line to balance action on both sides. Take the line directly from stats and you arrive at something closer to Bulls -5 at home and Heat -3 in Miami. A 21 point win is an outlier that would not occur often if the game was played 100 times.

[riskyProps]

I'm going on the Heat tonight. If they lose, they are done!

[Adr3nalin3 Ru5h]

Bulls win in a close one 95-90

[ReignMaker]

The Bulls huge edge in bench players, rebounding, and coaching were known quantities prior to game 1. Anyone that actually looked into the matchups for this series without bias would come to the same conclusion. Taking the Heat required faith in the Big 3 being good enough that they would be able to overcome these disparities and that the Heat bench would perform better than they have all season.

The line came out the same as in Game 1 because it's the correct line to balance action on both sides. Take the line directly from stats and you arrive at something closer to Bulls -5 at home and Heat -3 in Miami. A 21 point win is an outlier that would not occur often if the game was played 100 times.

I agree with you for game 1. But I'm saying after watching game 1, people saw that the Bulls are a better team winning by 21 pts. yet the line for game 2 is similar to game 1. This reflects on how the betting trend ATS was close to 50/50 for game 1, but right now at 62/38 favoring Bulls for game 2.

[uhuhahah]

Heat heat heat over

[twelvejewelz]

I agree with you for game 1. But I'm saying after watching game 1, people saw that the Bulls are a better team winning by 21 pts. yet the line for game 2 is similar to game 1. This reflects on how the betting trend ATS was close to 50/50 for game 1, but right now at 62/38 favoring Bulls for game 2.

its pretty even, you forget the ml is 60/40 and the spread is 60/40 opposite way so thats basically even split...

[TheAccountant]

I think there are a lot of fair points here, but I agree that Lebron and Wade will adjust and find a way to score tonight. If the Heat aren't going to win this game, I think it will be obvious very early on. If the game looks different than game 1 from the start, and I think it will, Heat take this one.

[politicin]

I'm going on the Heat tonight. If they lose, they are done!

I appreciate that thinking, but what makes you think the same thought isn't going through the Bulls mind? Hey if we don't finish Miami we're giving them home court advantage and really giving them some confidence. It's easy to think of what the Heat wants to do, but what makes you think the Bulls aren't equally pumped up? Coach T is the type who feels his work is never done. He will play with the same energy as game 1, I honestly feel maybe even more. This is a humble cast of people.

[suicidekings]

I agree with you for game 1. But I'm saying after watching game 1, people saw that the Bulls are a better team winning by 21 pts. yet the line for game 2 is similar to game 1. This reflects on how the betting trend ATS was close to 50/50 for game 1, but right now at 62/38 favoring Bulls for game 2.

60/40 on the spread favouring the Bulls
60/40 on the ML favouring the Heat

More total money bet on the spreads than MLs (higher limits, more available) accounts for the line shift. action is fairly balanced overall and the 1 point movement makes sense for the above reasons.

[ReignMaker]

60/40 on the spread favouring the Bulls
60/40 on the ML favouring the Heat

More total money bet on the spreads than MLs (higher limits, more available) accounts for the line shift. action is fairly balanced overall and the 1 point movement makes sense for the above reasons.

hmm.. I see your points. maybe the betting trend argument I made is not valid. Yeah, it's a tough call.

OK, here is another angle. The series bet for Bulls and Heat favored the Heat before game 1. But after game 1, the series bet favored the Bulls. yet, the line for game 2 is similar to game 1. doesn't this say that the lines makers think the public is on the Bulls side?

On a side note, do the lines-makers try to make it so that the public bets close to 50/50?

[paco]

Good call.

Congrats, Miami is a LOCK.

[DemoralizdDreamr]

Not Gonna happen homie, no size, only 2 guys with talent versus an army of talent and effort. Also it seems the officciating is aiding the bulls.
Good Luck though.

[politicin]

Not Gonna happen homie, no size, only 2 guys with talent versus an army of talent and effort. Also it seems the officciating is aiding the bulls.
Good Luck though.

Best part about this is that so far the refs have been all on Miami's side. Not to mention the Bulls are 30 percent from the field and shooting only 50 percent FTL, and they're up 2. Miami shooting 46 percent.

[EasyHustlin]

Miami playing with no fire, can't secure a board to save their lives.

[Fasttrack]

Hope you're right and the Heat win. Close so far.

[suicidekings]

hmm.. I see your points. maybe the betting trend argument I made is not valid. Yeah, it's a tough call.

OK, here is another angle. The series bet for Bulls and Heat favored the Heat before game 1. But after game 1, the series bet favored the Bulls. yet, the line for game 2 is similar to game 1. doesn't this say that the lines makers think the public is on the Bulls side?

On a side note, do the lines-makers try to make it so that the public bets close to 50/50?

That's how they guarantee their profit margin regardless of who wins.

With respect to the series price, I would argue that that line was super inflated because the books knew that even at -190, they would still book a lot of action on the Heat. It was where they felt would get even action. They also probably had more action on the Heat in terms of futures at +money so setting the series price would have taken that into account as well. For them, it's all about their bottom line, at the end of the NBA season. They might get killed on one game, and make up for it with another. All that matters is their net profit over the long term.

[kobstopa]

I agree, we're looking at a probable upset & I pick Bron to have a big game. This is a one situation where if Bulls expected to win 2 home games then the Heats should come out and loose it up & play it like you got nothing to loose. Bron will have to take these jumpshots just like Dirk had been doing today on isolated plays; the heats will look to move the balls better, let Wade + Bibby distribute the plays and Bron be the scorer. gl

told you'all that Bron will have a big game and I knew the upset is coming. !!!!!!!. ya.

[kobstopa]

Well see once the heat win what everyone has to say

you know it, we were right from the start

[bigp69]

you know it, we were right from the start

Haha congratz buddy

The heat haters can talk all the smack they want pre game we get the last laugh

HEAT!!!

[politicin]

you forgot to say the refs would call the game unfairly in your write up

[bigp69]

you forgot to say the refs would call the game unfairly in your write up

I can see where your coming from in that statement...

but there were a few calls that went against the heat to:

- The ball that was called out on the heat when asif blocked it
- The foul that should have been called when wade had the bloody elbow
- The charging penalty that was called a blocking foul

GG BRO

[bigp69]

Haters got silenced...

On the bright side you guys can get bulls to win the series at x 3 now and lose more haha

[blinky88]

nice one