I want to hammer the MIA/CHI under in Game 2

[No coincidences]

Talk me in or out of it. I'm about to make an angry bet after tonight and I think I should sleep on it, but the under's calling my name and staring me down right now.

[t-wizzle]

Sleep on it nocoin but here's my take: Chicago won't score more than anything in the 80s. Miami's defense was non-existent last game but i think tomorrow night they step up and really lock down. Rose won't shoot like he did the other night again. I think this game comes down to the late stages of the fourth and the Heat win in a 90-85 type game. The Heat will have some droughts but they will adjust and not do so much Iso next game.

[NBA_Brosuf]

you want to hold my hand while you make that call?

The only thing that I'm fearful now is how Bulls or Heats players are watching the okc/dallas game 1 and wants to compete against their scores for tomorrow.

Basically, it is a monkey see monkey do theory. Forget the defense and lets play offense and the better shootout offense team may win. I know it is foolish to say but competitor players will use that model. I mean I know I will if I'm contesting my co workers for the salesman of the week award.

Everyone doing well with 100+ team points and here you are, sucking dry on a baby's bottle. Totally embarrassment.

[vinh diesel]

I am leaning under as well, but not more than 1-2 units. I think the line is very sharp.

[No coincidences]

Sleep on it nocoin but here's my take: Chicago won't score more than anything in the 80s. Miami's defense was non-existent last game but i think tomorrow night they step up and really lock down. Rose won't shoot like he did the other night again. I think this game comes down to the late stages of the fourth and the Heat win in a 90-85 type game. The Heat will have some droughts but they will adjust and not do so much Iso next game.

I don't see anything over 175 either t-wizz.

Not sure on the side. Just really like the under.

[vyomguy]

no coin...go fuk your wife tonight...take out all your anger....you need cool head to make wagers.

[chantrain]

I have no idea why people play overs/unders...I feel much safer taking a side.

[No coincidences]

no coin...go fuk your wife tonight...take out all your anger....you need cool head to make wagers.

She's asleep.

[No coincidences]

I have no idea why people play overs/unders...I feel much safer taking a side.

See, I couldn't pick a side for this game if you held a gun to my head.

[chantrain]

just go with the better team

[No coincidences]

just go with the better team

I know everyone and their grandmother thinks that's the Bulls now, but I don't see it as that simple. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Heat win Game 2. Chicago definitely has certain advantages, but so does Miami if they put a better gameplan together and exploit the Bulls' weaknesses tomorrow.

[kruser]

been looking forward to the under of this game all week!!

[chantrain]

their coach is not good enough to put a better gameplan together nor does he have the required pieces to do it. Exploit weaknesses...how exactly?

[Pivotpoint]

I'd wait on that. Public will parlay side with over. Especially after seeing all the points scored in Mavs game. Number looks solid also. Heat 5-0 (over) total = 181 1/2 or less. Heat 6 of 7 over last 7. I hate betting unders. If I was going to sweat that out, I'd hope bettors bet the over and move the line away from that 181 1/2 (5-0) spread record. Usually best to bet unders a couple hours before the game.

[RayzHELL]

"Moving forward, what really stands out in the last two rounds when compared to the earlier rounds is the success of the ‘under’, further fueling the familiar adage that “defense wins championships!” In fact, the ‘under’ is 100-70-1, 58.8 percent in the last two playoff rounds combined since the 2000-01 Season, based on the closing betting odds from Pinnacle Sports.

The best ‘under’ team among the teams still in the playoffs at this late stage has been the Miami Heat, as the ‘under’ is 14-5, 73.7 percent in conference final and NBA Final games involving Miami in the last 10 years. Overall, the ‘under’ is 67-49, 57.8 percent against the NBA odds in the conference finals and 33-21-1, 61.1 percent in the NBA Finals since 2001." L.T. Profits

I think Game 1 was an anomaly by going over. Chicago BULLS and Miami HEAT will hunker down and play D-FENCE in Game 2.

[suicidekings]

I originally really liked the Under for this series, but the problem I have with it is that I expect Miami to score more points in Game 2, but I don't really expect Miami to keep the Bulls from scoring. The Bulls presence in the paint combined with the abysmal way Miami went about defending them makes the Under a pass for me.

I expect a Bulls win, but much closer, with a lot of good shooting / FTs down the stretch.

[No coincidences]

I'd wait on that. Public will parlay side with over. Especially after seeing all the points scored in Mavs game. Number looks solid also. Heat 5-0 (over) total = 181 1/2 or less. Heat 6 of 7 over last 7. I hate betting unders. If I was going to sweat that out, I'd hope bettors bet the over and move the line away from that 181 1/2 (5-0) spread record. Usually best to bet unders a couple hours before the game.

The fact that the Heat have been going over, Game 1 went over, tonight's game went over and the public will generally side with the over here (though probably not in one-sided fashion) makes me like it even more, as long as it doesn't start creeping up tomorrow.

[No coincidences]

I originally really liked the Under for this series, but the problem I have with it is that I expect Miami to score more points in Game 2, but I don't really expect Miami to keep the Bulls from scoring. The Bulls presence in the paint combined with the abysmal way Miami went about defending them makes the Under a pass for me.

Thanks SK.

You really don't think Miami intensifies their defensive effort here and comes up with a better strategy?

I'm assuming this means you'll be on CHI tomorrow night as well?

[vinh diesel]

I know everyone and their grandmother thinks that's the Bulls now, but I don't see it as that simple. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Heat win Game 2. Chicago definitely has certain advantages, but so does Miami if they put a better gameplan together and exploit the Bulls' weaknesses tomorrow.

The heat have been an isolation type team since the start of the season, this isn't going to change over night, pack the paint and make wade/lebron/bosh beat you on the outside. The bulls have the rebounding advantage and will have more opportunities, thus is more likely to win.

[Pivotpoint]

If you like the under, aren't you hoping that the public will hit it and it creeps up? Total is a no play on me for this game. I like the side.

[No coincidences]

If you like the under, aren't you hoping that the public will hit it and it creeps up? Total is a no play on me for this game. I like the side.

I'm hoping the public will take the over, but I doubt they do enough to make a real difference. My guess is it'll end up in the 60/40 range.

[NBA_Brosuf]

In this playoff series, chicago does not have a back to back 100+ game.

Chicago when playing miami has not had a 100+ back to back game since the OT on 03/09/2009. Their next game on 03/26/2009 against miami was their last heat match up for a back to back 100+ game.

U think chicago is going to do another 100+ points in game 2? HA !!!!!

[SUPREME]

I have no idea why people play overs/unders...I feel much safer taking a side.

Some teams matchup well enough for there to not be a 'better team' in certain situations. Ive done better with totals in the postseason than choosing a 'better team'...

If you're not used to capping totals and analyzing certain teams' defensive vs. offensive patterns during the regular season, then yeah, of course picking a 'better team' sounds like a more reasonable wager than totals...but isn't always the case when dealing with spreads.

Btw, I'll be on the under as well NC. I may also tease the under along with taking CHI for 5pts. BOL

[chantrain]

Interesting, thanks for the explanation.

I just feel like totals are so much more a matter of luck. one player gets hot or cold and it screws you, while betting a side is much more of a consistent thing...but that's just my opinion.

[daimoshokage]

fade.. fade.. fade..

[nmodi]

NO I aint an expert like u ....but we r talking abt big 3 in Miami...sprcially hungry 2 LBJ and D wade...after less 20 a night in GM 1...they will come back big for sure....Chicago is flying with Rose(MVP) ..Carlos, Noha, Leng & surprise double digit USC guy Gibson....In short we r talking abt atleast 4 superstar from both team..The scoring guys around...I will think twice going under..this is just my 2 cents...but again u guys know better then I do

[No coincidences]

fade.. fade.. fade..

Still looking for your plays chief.

[NBA_Brosuf]

I think Game 1 was an anomaly by going over. Chicago BULLS and Miami HEAT will hunker down and play D-FENCE in Game 2.

I remember correctly, In game 1 chi/heats, the over was a creeper by 5 points. 5 freaking points don't make that much of a difference to why the public would like to pound the over.

If anything, if the total will stay the same for OKC/ dallas game for game 2, I'm sure heavily public play on the over as they seen how both scores went totally way over the margin.

Chicago rare to get 100+ point and yet, the total only creep over by 4.5 points. This only shows me that the over is a handicap and if it does go over, it is probably because them refs are giving easy free throws or the 3 ball or the trio combine for 70+ points. Basically, the over hitting is a condition that only happens once in a long moon. Is tomorrow a blue moon? I dunno.

[tonyp0387]

G reat now i have to buy out of my under bet. thanks for the heads up this tread has fade written all over it.

[benrama]

People kept thinking the CHI/ATL would go under and it burnt people more often than not. This is a different series, but both these teams have such a strong advantage when it comes to the fast break, with Lebron/Wade/Rose unstoppable on the open court. The game scoring then comes down to turnovers and fast outlets from a missed shot, which are really hard to gauge.

I'm going to wait for a live bet on this game, hope for a high scoring first quarter or part thereof (as seemed to be the general trend in ATL/CHI and looked on track in game 1 half way through 1Q) and hope to get a line more like 185-187 to bet the under on.

[No coincidences]

G reat now i have to buy out of my under bet. thanks for the heads up this tread has fade written all over it.

I don't see many people saying they think it's a great idea.

[NBA_Brosuf]

Interesting, thanks for the explanation.

I just feel like totals are so much more a matter of luck. one player gets hot or cold and it screws you, while betting a side is much more of a consistent thing...but that's just my opinion.

There are benefits with the totals as well as picking sides.

With totals, The over has many variables that can be on your favor like ref cheating with calling fouls to stop the clock and the last minute fouling game which jack up the points or OT which is a good over motivator. Basically, the over in lets say the bulls/heats game 2 tomorrow is 181 through Infinity.

However, with the under, the window of opportunity is really shallow. Realistically saying, the window for the under is around 160 (being generous) to 181. Well that's not fair. The over goes to infinity while the under, we have to catch it within that small window of opportunity.

[suicidekings]

Thanks SK. You really don't think Miami intensifies their defensive effort here and comes up with a better strategy? I'm assuming this means you'll be on CHI tomorrow night as well?

When I look at why the Bulls won Game 1, I would say maybe 70+% of it came out of the matchup issues that the Bulls present for the Heat (offensive rebounding, bench performance, etc). The rest came from the mistakes Miami made in how they approached guarding the Bulls. Miami doesn't have the tools to compensate entirely for the matchup issues, and I expect them to have a better gameplan, but the gap between where they need to be and where they were in Game 1 was pretty wide. And also, the Bulls didn't play a perfect game, and I feel like Thibs will be addressing the things he didn't like about Game 1. On top of all that, the 10-12 easy points the Bulls gave to Miami on unforced errors in the first half didn't even factor into the win.

So I think Miami will try to play better, but will fall short. I think this game will be closer, but the Bulls still win. I put my money on the -1.5 as soon as the line was released.

[No coincidences]

When I look at why the Bulls won Game 1, I would say maybe 70+% of it came out of the matchup issues that the Bulls present for the Heat (offensive rebounding, bench performance, etc). The rest came from the mistakes Miami made in how they approached guarding the Bulls. Miami doesn't have the tools to compensate entirely for the matchup issues, and I expect them to have a better gameplan, but the gap between where they need to be and where they were in Game 1 was pretty wide. And also, the Bulls didn't play a perfect game, and I feel like Thibs will be addressing the things he didn't like about Game 1. On top of all that, the 10-12 easy points the Bulls gave to Miami on unforced errors in the first half didn't even factor into the win.

So I think Miami will try to play better, but will fall short. I think this game will be closer, but the Bulls still win. I put my money on the -1.5 as soon as the line was released.

[twelvejewelz]

She's asleep.

even better