Chi/Atl game 6

[The Coach's Desk]

Atl plus 3.5
Hawks played tough in game 5
T hey battled back to make it agame
The public is killing the bulls at 80%
Atl knows they can beat this team at home
Jeff teague stepping up could be an xfactor
We take the hawks and the points

small play on ov 178
Over 3-2 in series and
3-0 when the total is set at 178

Gl

[thebestthereis]

i like it, good luck!

[the-phenomenal-1]

i think

i think the bulls finish the hawks off dont think they want to take a chance at going to game seven and losing it

[Jackie Moon]

I think close game. Wish I could tease it

[AikenJ]

I'm on the over as well. I don't believe the sbr articles! haha

[MemTigers]

D Rose takes the game over in the 4th and Bulls win by at least 5.

[Taka]

Why hasnt the line moved with majority of public on Bulls? :/

[natethagreat]

i like the over, not sure that chicago will not pull this off though tonight.

[The Coach's Desk]

Exactly that if why I like the play even more.it should go to 4

[Love The Action]

You mention the public being on the bulls as a factor why you take atl. However, you fail to mention the public is on the over even more...as much as 85% of all bets are on the over in this one but the line has gone down. As an under backer, that always makes me feel a little better....bol...

[bonestock]

Miami is sitting there waiting. Bulls to close out the series. Bulls -2 @ -135 4x.

[KJ CottonChopper]

I'm going both, Bulls moneyline and buying Hawks up to 5. Hoping to hit the middle. Good luck whatever way you go!

[pdprodigy]

I think there's still good value going for Chicago.

[bondguy007]

Take the over. It's even lower than the last game!

[The Coach's Desk]

I am leary on the under.I dont like betting a line when the public is killing it.
But I think it only warrants a small play

[kingcheng]

time for cinderella to go back home, ATL out, chicago vs miami

[ManBearPig]

1Q - o45.5
The 1Q in this series has been surprisingly a high scoring affair, in comparison to the series overall as I've computed an average of 50 taking into account games in ATL, the series, and situational. This could go under but I see good value in this as the this correlates the the 1H play.

Scoring drops off a bit in the 2Q as the numbers regress to around 43.

1H - o90.5
Using the logic above I'm calculating an average 1H total of 93 which correlates to my computed average of 93. Although this isn't much over the line of 90.5, I think I like the fact a little more that they average 96 in the 1H in Atlanta vs. the 89 in Chicago. I almost had to take these two based on the fact that they are highly correlated and if I can get the 1Q hit then the half should follow.

FG - o178.5 (but it will be close and probably come down to final 2 minutes)
This one is a little trickier because this line is extremely tight and all the number support it. From a situational standpoint the number favor the over but with an average of 187.5. (This would be eastern conference close out game with the team 3 up on the road) When looking at this you have to look at the fact the the EConf is generally a lower scoring conference so it helps to break situations down it to detail, but not too much.

This isn't the only number I have to base this on as they are actually averaging 184.5 in ATL in the series and just over 180 for the series. This line is very tight, but I think if you're going to play this one you take the over and try and get it under 179. I have other numbers from my model (that has it as a no-play) that I won't bore you with, but I see this going over but not over 185 so the margin is fairly small. We could very easily see a 175 type game because some of these haven't been decided until the games final minutes so it's been a toss-up really. I will feel a lot better about this if the first two hit because this will indicate the pace is right where I want it. Basically, it comes down to the details and these seem to indicate the over. I can throw out all the numbers I want but in the end it will come down to what the players do on the floor. The them (sans GM1) has been over in ATL and Under in CHI so I'm going to stick with that.

I don't plan on playing the 2H but if there is deviation then I may to recoup some losses...we'll see. I'm not as confident in this play as the others but I think it's the one with the better chance of hitting.

As always just my opinion here not FACT so each to their own.

[nnhenry]

good luck on the play

[spargament]

i like the 1h over

[JOHON8]

1Q - o45.5
The 1Q in this series has been surprisingly a high scoring affair, in comparison to the series overall as I've computed an average of 50 taking into account games in ATL, the series, and situational. This could go under but I see good value in this as the this correlates the the 1H play.

Scoring drops off a bit in the 2Q as the numbers regress to around 43.

1H - o90.5
Using the logic above I'm calculating an average 1H total of 93 which correlates to my computed average of 93. Although this isn't much over the line of 90.5, I think I like the fact a little more that they average 96 in the 1H in Atlanta vs. the 89 in Chicago. I almost had to take these two based on the fact that they are highly correlated and if I can get the 1Q hit then the half should follow.

FG - o178.5 (but it will be close and probably come down to final 2 minutes)
This one is a little trickier because this line is extremely tight and all the number support it. From a situational standpoint the number favor the over but with an average of 187.5. (This would be eastern conference close out game with the team 3 up on the road) When looking at this you have to look at the fact the the EConf is generally a lower scoring conference so it helps to break situations down it to detail, but not too much.

This isn't the only number I have to base this on as they are actually averaging 184.5 in ATL in the series and just over 180 for the series. This line is very tight, but I think if you're going to play this one you take the over and try and get it under 179. I have other numbers from my model (that has it as a no-play) that I won't bore you with, but I see this going over but not over 185 so the margin is fairly small. We could very easily see a 175 type game because some of these haven't been decided until the games final minutes so it's been a toss-up really. I will feel a lot better about this if the first two hit because this will indicate the pace is right where I want it. Basically, it comes down to the details and these seem to indicate the over. I can throw out all the numbers I want but in the end it will come down to what the players do on the floor. The them (sans GM1) has been over in ATL and Under in CHI so I'm going to stick with that.

I don't plan on playing the 2H but if there is deviation then I may to recoup some losses...we'll see. I'm not as confident in this play as the others but I think it's the one with the better chance of hitting.

As always just my opinion here not FACT so each to their own.

You have to consider the fact that when the Bulls win their defending is what makes them win. IMO you're capping way too many overs, every one of them will be a public play.

[Inkwell77]

Wait until halftime.
If Atlanta is ahead or down by 1 or 2 points bet the over if it is 90-91 points!
If the Bulls are ahead by 4 or more bet the under if it is 89-88 points!
If the Bulls are up by 3 do not bet the second half.
This is what I would do.

[initialX]

I like Bull ML. They will get it done tonight

[WileOut]

If Boozers toe was halfway decent Bulls would have won game 1 and the series would already be over. Boozer at 50% is killing the Bulls. That is why Tom let the frontcourt bench play the whole 4th quarter.

[ManBearPig]

That unit is better defensively which is probably why he left them out there.

[Flight]

If can get ATL +4 at the square shops, go ahead and hit it, otherwise no play.

[panik]

Im playing it safe and going CHicago ML

[goblinburner]

Im playing it safe and going CHicago ML

that is not safe unless you double wrap into a tranies snatch the over is safe to me

[darrell74]

I was late to bet this but I have read that every 3rd quarter, the road team wins
Might help us out for 2nd half betting, who knows

[darrell74]

I got the Bulls at -3.5

sprinkled a small parlay on the bulls and the over

total should be tight, but I think the Hawks will extend the game in garbage time for their fans(fouling, going to the free throw line, jacking 3's-that kind of thing) covering the over by like less than a handful of points

[JOHON8]

If you bet a team mainly because 80% of the public is on the other side then you're the square, not the 80% of people.

[BernardMadoff]

If Boozers toe was halfway decent Bulls would have won game 1 and the series would already be over. Boozer at 50% is killing the Bulls. That is why Tom let the frontcourt bench play the whole 4th quarter.

Im sure his toe hurts but he looks ok to me, dunking on people left handed left and right.

[cash$bro91]

da Bulls win for me again!