L.A. VS Dallas -2 (What I Don't Understand)

[TheMoneyShot]

First, I don't understand the opening line? Dallas -2.

Dallas destroyed the Lakers... humiliated them in front of their own fans. Why is it only -2?

Artest gets a one game suspension and the line really doesn't move... if anything it went to -2.5 but Vegas already knew he was getting suspended.

I prediected the opening line to be Dallas -3.5. If it opened at that number I was going to hammer L.A. +3.5 If it opened at Dallas -4 I was going to hammer Dallas because the line would of been too high.

I'm just stunned and shocked at this opening line. Early numbers show the Public still believes in the LAKERS... but how could you? You are going to a loud Dallas Arena... Kobe is tired. He isn't 100%. It's really a no brainer to take Dallas -2. But... the NBA isn't this easy this year. This is a major match up. It's not like Orlando -1.5 at Atlanta etc.

If the books are going to stay at L.A. +2.5 on the road... a tired Kobe... a disoriented L.A. team... the only way L.A. wins if the refs give them the calls at the rim. You can't possibly beat Dallas in Dallas without the refs helping you. I'm just saying...

[SpreadSniper]

what line did you expect? Cant have the reigning champs as big dogs, regardless....

[BernardMadoff]

.5 of a difference would make you hammer either side? Hope you're using the hammer term loosely as many do but seems like. 5 isn't much to completely change who you would "hammer". Anyway just subtract 8 from -6 line you got in LA and that's how they come up with -2. Homecourt advantage.

[8ArIvd5]

with artest out, blake and brown will have to pick up the slack. both are younger, quicker, smaller players than artest who will match up better when the mavs bring in their smaller line up.

[TheMoneyShot]

What is your opinion? Is this a desperate L.A. Lakers team... in which you come out and play your best game? How can the Lakers match the intensity and energy in that Dallas arena? It just seems too good to be true to get Dallas at -2.5. But I do appreciate your comments and remarks. Out of all the NBA Playoff games so far... this one confuses me the most...

[Kobe Stopper]

Lakers should win tomorrow

[SpreadSniper]

Its hard to bet against the lakers, plain and simple.... especially with their backs against a wall....

again, what line did you expect? If you wanted close to even action, what line would you toss up? LAL +6?

[Kobe Stopper]

It is hard to bet agaisnt the lakers i think they can win both games in dallas its the lakers were talking about here

[BernardMadoff]

What is your opinion? Is this a desperate L.A. Lakers team... in which you come out and play your best game? How can the Lakers match the intensity and energy in that Dallas arena? It just seems too good to be true to get Dallas at -2.5. But I do appreciate your comments and remarks. Out of all the NBA Playoff games so far... this one confuses me the most...

At -3.5 though I think theyed be looking at a situation where too much would be coming in on LA and the number would surely move, their not gonna stray far from their formula anyway and that being power ratings.

[Qtip]

I was expecting a pick' tbh. The reason the line is the way it is, is because anytime LA feels like showing up they can/will win decidedly and down 0-2 if they were planning on showing up game 3 will be it.

[thebestthereis]

the line seems right i think, hard to pass on the lakeshow in literally desperation mode

[TheMoneyShot]

Its hard to bet against the lakers, plain and simple.... especially with their backs against a wall.... again, what line did you expect? If you wanted close to even action, what line would you toss up? LAL +6?

In my opinion I just believe if an Oddsmaker can come up with a spread to still get 65% on one side (knowingly the other side would win) I think they would do it. It's not always about getting 50/50. You also as an oddsmaker don't want to RED FLAG the play either. Just like in the Boston AT Miami Series... oddly enough the line was set at -5 both games... and reports came out that Boston on the side and ML came out with 68% of the public on Boston in both games. Which to me was very surprising.

But talking about this more and more is helping me a lot... I don't normally like to bet favorites... but... Dallas seems to be the play.

[Fernburn74]

everyone on lakers just like lakers couldnt lose two in a row and they got pumped!!!

and again public is saying lakers cant lose 3 in a row!!! 94% laker lovers

and remember this dallas team is a different team a better team !!!

dirk can not not b stopped this team suffered cause of lakers for to many years and this is there revenge on the lakers era to come to an end!!

just like BARKLEY said this year is the year that the tables turn !!!! DALLAS MAVS r the play tommorrow with the home crowd and the team tasting for the first time in playoffs agaist the lakers again one or two guys cant not win for the lakers!!!! dallas has depth and will nail it in the coffen tommorrow!!!

and lakers two years in a row champs! they have played the most games and they r tired and loosing there legs out there DIRK looks like the old KOBE just unstoppable im not falling for this lakers comeback!! if u watch the games lakers have no answers for everyone on the dallas team they r on fire and going to the FINALS this year!!!!

DALLAS -2.5 LOCK It down and vegas is laughing at the laker lovers 94%ML and 57% spread!!!!

[Qtip]

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying the Lakers win. But they are definitely capable, which is why the line is what is. From the looks of the line the books are expecting a Dallas cover.

[SpreadSniper]

public perception is skewed at best... what better way to get both Laker and Mav backers on board? Lakers lost both games @ home, they dont have a chance, right?

I personally will not be betting before tip.

[BernardMadoff]

everyone on lakers just like lakers couldnt lose two in a row and they got pumped!!!

and again public is saying lakers cant lose 3 in a row!!! 94% laker lovers

and remember this dallas team is a different team a better team !!!

dirk can not not b stopped this team suffered cause of lakers for to many years and this is there revenge on the lakers era to come to an end!!

just like BARKLEY said this year is the year that the tables turn !!!! DALLAS MAVS r the play tommorrow with the home crowd and the team tasting for the first time in playoffs agaist the lakers again one or two guys cant not win for the lakers!!!! dallas has depth and will nail it in the coffen tommorrow!!!

and lakers two years in a row champs! they have played the most games and they r tired and loosing there legs out there DIRK looks like the old KOBE just unstoppable im not falling for this lakers comeback!! if u watch the games lakers have no answers for everyone on the dallas team they r on fire and going to the FINALS this year!!!!

DALLAS -2.5 LOCK It down and vegas is laughing at the laker lovers 94%ML and 57% spread!!!!

I remember the talk earlier in the season when the Lakers had lost 3 in a row, many said no way the Lakers lose four in a row, then they lost the fourth one and near season's end they lost 5 in a row. Lakers big men are a gift and a curse against the Mavs, the Mavs spread the floor and pick and roll and the Lakers big men are too slow defensively, its pick your poison, Mavs have too many good shooters and small guards who have been finding their way into the paint at will, with that said it would help if the Lakers played with any kind of defensive intensity, theyve been this way defensively all year, standing around looking at one another when the opponent scores.

[BernardMadoff]

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying the Lakers win. But they are definitely capable, which is why the line is what is. From the looks of the line the books are expecting a Dallas cover.

I dont know how you come up with that. Please tell me. How are the books expecting a Dallas cover?

[Fernburn74]

LAKERS 94%

DALLAS 6%

JUST WHAT BOOKS WANT!!!!!!

i watch the games and lakers r done no ifs not buts ITS OVER!!!!!

[shermanator]

lakers gonna get swept

[Qtip]

I dont know how you come up with that. Please tell me. How are the books expecting a Dallas cover?

They don't need to give +2.5 to get the squares money on the Lakers, at pk it would still be coming in.

[BernardMadoff]

They don't need to give +2.5 to get the squares money on the Lakers, at pk it would still be coming in.

That's it? So homecourt has nothing to do with it? Why wouldnt the Mavs be favored on their homecourt, the "real" Lakers arnt that much better than the Mavs.

[Kobe Stopper]

nah theyll play well

[BigDeem5]

I don't know if the Lakers will get swept, but it is hard to take them after the way they've been playing. Shannon Brown could b X-factor

[Erwright]

Mavs in 6. I think the Lakers lose tomorrow and win Games 4 and 5 so I'm on Dallas -2.5 also. Good Luck tomorrow!

[NY Playa]

dallas by 10

[NBA_Brosuf]

YOu should watch the post game interview with Kobe. He said something like..."why are you tripping? We will just win 1 game and then the next and all back to home court and everything will be fine"

something in that context.

It all depends on Kobe and how much he wants it. You know that even if Kobe scores a ton, they can still lose right? Kobe and Shaq playoff career scores are about neck to neck right now. If Kobe knows about this, he has a record to chase. Yes I know, Kobe can be seen as a hot dog type of a guy. A show off but then again, he's all entertainment.

I'm taking dallas for this game and if lose, I'm taking dallas again but double up my bets. If Dallas wins SU, game 4 might go to them Lakers so the NBA can make money on game 5.

[JackHorner]

I don't know if the Lakers will get swept, but it is hard to take them after the way they've been playing. Shannon Brown could b X-factor

You're kidding right? What has Shannon Brown done this year or any other year to prove he could be any bit of an x-factor? Dude's a bum and one-third of the dreaded "Killer Bees" that collectively score an average of 9 points a game.

[lolbear]

lol.. -2 dallas and OMFG WTFBBQ. if its -3.5 then OMFG WTFPOUNDLAKERS BBQ

i can see if the line is off by about 3 points from ur expectation, but u must be REALLY good at capping to make those statements. maybe flawless.

[FilletMaster]

lakeshow will bounce back... you trippin betting on mavs

[rokasar]

It's probably the last chance for the guys like Kidd, Nowitzki and Terry.. They just cant let it go. Now they are better team and they must win the 3rd game. If they loose, the series could go either way. They understand that this is the last chance for them to win a title or even reach a final. They wont let it go tonight. If they loose tonight - 2x bet on Dallas in game four.

[JR007]

do not know if public perception is skewed........good point though.....it is always 'built into the line' very important concept to understand

[blinky88]

Mavvs win

[wikkidinsane]

lakers gonna get swept

Indeed and I cant wait for it to happen. Im so exciteeeeeeed

[Banks84]

i wouldn't bet this game line seems a little fishy. i think artest being out will help the lakers offensively, and you gotta think jackson and kobe arent going down at least without a fight. couple that with the fact the ref's will favor the lakers(line in itself shows that) and this game can easily go either way.

[smarsh816]

like guy above said im not gonna bet ill wait to see if the lakers get up big or start getting blown out if there gonna win i think the lakers will win by 5-10 but i just dont see how they will bounce out of this having no artest is kinda big even though he aint no good did u see blake play he is the big reason the lead got so big like 4 or 5 bad passes in a row and terrible shots mavs at home