Boston +170 vs Heat (Series) at BoDog!

fsfalcons · 04-29-11, 12:44 PM

I think this series goes 7, but I really do like Boston here

FindTheLock · 04-29-11, 12:47 PM

hedging with that many intangibles isn't called hedging anymore. It's called paying the juice.

ShowMeDaMoney · 04-29-11, 12:48 PM

Originally posted by FindTheLock

hedging with that many intangibles isn't called hedging anymore. It's called paying the juice.

Don't mind paying the juice... I just want off that Miami bet ASAP. I do not like the odds, and I do not like the team.

My other option is to take a few other teams to win it all... here's BoDog's odds.

Los Angeles Lakers
11/4

Miami Heat
3/1

Chicago Bulls
13/4

Boston Celtics
11/2

Oklahoma City Thunder
6/1

Dallas Mavericks
16/1

San Antonio Spurs
28/1

Memphis Grizzlies
40/1

Atlanta Hawks
50/1

What would y'all do

FindTheLock · 04-29-11, 12:49 PM

I would bet on the bulls and the lakers. Forget the rest of them and since u already have Miami covered you will have 3 teams of which one will most likely win it all. With the Lakers u have the refs on your side too!

ShowMeDaMoney · 04-29-11, 12:50 PM

I'll give an ass load of SBR points to someone to figures out a way for me to hedge this puppy. I think most people agree one of five teams will win it" LA, Miami, Chicago, Boston, OKC.

Hmm....I risked 400 to win 700 for Miami to win it all. Hmm...

FindTheLock · 04-29-11, 12:53 PM

lakers pays 2.75-1 bulls pays 3.25-1 you have the heat at 1.75

ShowMeDaMoney · 04-29-11, 12:56 PM

Put like two bills on Lakers...two bills on Chicago?

Chicago Wins : Profit 600 from them winning - 400 from Miami losing - 200 from LA Losing = Break Even

LA Wins : Profit : Profit 550 from them winning - 400 from Miami losing - 200 from LA Losing = Lose $50

The only thing that could absolutely **** me would be Boston pulling this off... outside of that I think you found a pretty reasonable way of doing it.

ShowMeDaMoney · 04-29-11, 12:56 PM

what does everyone else think?

FindTheLock · 04-29-11, 12:57 PM

400 to win 700 on heat lakers 200 to win 550 bulls 200 to win 650
-400 -600 -600
300 -50 50

FindTheLock · 04-29-11, 12:58 PM

that gives u some outs

FindTheLock · 04-29-11, 01:05 PM

U could play a wild card for 100 and that is where the juice would get u. Just have to subtract a hundo from each of the bottom totals and hope this isn't the year the hawks win it all lol

ShowMeDaMoney · 04-29-11, 01:16 PM

So tough to eliminate Boston from the conversation though, don't you think?

If they somehow got thru Miami\Bulls... then they are in the Finals... and I'm shitting a golden brick at that point LOL!

FindTheLock · 04-29-11, 01:20 PM

yeah, I would rather be on the celtics than the heat, but since you're already on the heat you are limited in how you can play it. U can always make a series bet on the celtics here and then decide what to do if they beat the heat. That's going to cost you some money though. Look at it like this, if the celtics pull off this upset you will have the celtics as another hedging option. There is no way that works out mathematically once you add a fourth team. U gotta pick 2 more since u have 1 or u will be basically losing no matter what on this bet.

Bradyd · 04-29-11, 01:20 PM

Originally posted by ShowMeDaMoney

Where in the hell is this Miami love coming from? I didn't watch a ton of the last month or so of basketball... did I miss the Heat really pouring it on or something? Didn't top tier teams (Spurs, Boston, Lakers, hell even Orlando and NYK) have a pretty easy time with them?

I stupidly put 400 bones on the Heat to win it all at the beginning of the year... I have 7\4 odds, and I'm trying to figure out a way to get off that bet.

Seems logical to take the Celtics for a few bills to win the series, right? If I hit that it's 340 off of 200... if I lose, well, I only lose 200 bones, and I can then take the Bulls (or whoever they play) to win the series against Miami....

If I lost both of those I'd be down over 400 because I'm guessing the Bulls would definitely be a favorite against Miami... then the finals would be tricky if I lost both bets....

But heck, I don't see a reason not to take Boston +170 right now for a few hundo. Anyone else agree? I mean... +170? These guys almost won the whole thing last year!!!

Yes, you did miss something.. The Heat split with the Spurs, Orlando, and the Knicks... And the Lakers haven't even beat them yet... the only one from that list who won the season series was Boston, and it was hardly easy for them...
Personally, I like Boston but the Heat are not a team to take lightly. Don't underestimate the Heat!!

ShowMeDaMoney · 04-29-11, 01:25 PM

Originally posted by FindTheLock

yeah, I would rather be on the celtics than the heat, but since you're already on the heat you are limited in how you can play it. U can always make a series bet on the celtics here and then decide what to do if they beat the heat. That's going to cost you some money though. Look at it like this, if the celtics pull off this upset you will have the celtics as another hedging option. There is no way that works out mathematically once you add a fourth team. U gotta pick 2 more since u have 1 or u will be basically losing no matter what on this bet.

You mean... make a series play on Boston to beat the Heat...

a.) if they do, take them (and other teams I had mentioned to win it all)

b.) if they don't... take other teams mentioned to win it all?

Is that what you mean?

Considering throwing a bill or two on the Celts at +170... if I lose that, well, the Heat are in the Eastern Conference Finals against either the Bulls or Hawks... two teams I think they are more than capable of beating, and present matchup problems for both. I think Boston is the team that stands in the way of the Heat going to the Finals.....

Hey man...thanks for the help! Please continue lol.... I'll throw you some points for sure. I Just want off this bet, with minimal risk involved...

I guess I could take the other two teams (LA\Bulls) and if the Celtics get to the Finals... Put a decent sized bet on them to decrease the damage. I don't mind losing a little, I just do NOT want 400 bucks on the Heat winning it all, especially at ******* +175 odds...awful awful odds.

I do not see them beating Boston\Chicago\LA (or whoever represents the west) three series' in a row... that's an awfully hard road to the finals.. lots of good teams this year.

FindTheLock · 04-29-11, 01:28 PM

yeah the bad part about this season too is that non of the teams are all that dominate. The mavs or the thunder could sneak in and surprise everybody. too many variables to safely hedge that type of bet.

FindTheLock · 04-29-11, 01:34 PM

maybe you could try running a labby on each individual game. Chase system on one of the teams only. betting on them to cover each game played. to win the 400. line won't be too far from 0 in my opinion so getting -110 440 to win 400. if that doesnt hit u bet 968 to win 400. from there the numbers get rather high and very risky though lol

ShowMeDaMoney · 04-29-11, 01:34 PM

for sure FindTheLock... yeah it's tough. I wanted to find a book to take the field (not Miami Heat) to win the East at -330 (found it on scoresandodds.com) but I can't find a book with it... if I lost that it'd be easy to get it back in the Finals with Heat vs X team. In any case, the best option I've seen so far is take Chicago for a few bills... take LA for a few bills...and pray it's not Boston\one of the other teams year's. But that's certainly not risk free......

ShowMeDaMoney · 04-29-11, 01:36 PM

Originally posted by FindTheLock

maybe you could try running a labby on each individual game. Chase system on one of the teams only. betting on them to cover each game played. to win the 400. line won't be too far from 0 in my opinion so getting -110 440 to win 400. if that doesnt hit u bet 968 to win 400. from there the numbers get rather high and very risky though lol

that is risky as shit, and my book won't allow me to do that...

thanks for helpin out broski!

what would you do... just ride out the bet and see what happens? I'm thinkin the best option is to just fade the Heat in the next of their two series for a few bills each time.... if they make it to the finals... welp, I got a 1 of 2 chance of winning a few hundred dollars... if they lose, I guess I lose around 800 instead of the original 400. Could fade the Heat again in the finals...I just don't want it to get super complex... I do not think they make it to the Finals this year...

FindTheLock · 04-29-11, 01:40 PM

yeah man to be honest I don't like the heat to win it all. I know I thought about doing the same thing at the beginning of the season, but after seeing them get manhandled to +.500 teams I would be trying to bail on that bet too. I am sure there is a way u can do it by series where u can only end up losing 200 instead of 400, but it's a tough bet to get out of at this point. Next round will be easier.

ShowMeDaMoney · 04-29-11, 01:44 PM

Originally posted by FindTheLock

yeah man to be honest I don't like the heat to win it all. I know I thought about doing the same thing at the beginning of the season, but after seeing them get manhandled to +.500 teams I would be trying to bail on that bet too. I am sure there is a way u can do it by series where u can only end up losing 200 instead of 400, but it's a tough bet to get out of at this point. Next round will be easier.

Because less teams? Sure.. but what if the Heat lose THIS round?

Ugh, don't know.... but I want off...I do not like it one bit.

FindTheLock · 04-29-11, 01:48 PM

well in order for boston to win the series they have to win 4 games. so there is some hedging potential on the ML's of boston in this series. plus u know the celtics will at least win a few games so if u can get them + money that will be nice. 7 game series labby on all of bostons +ML's to win 400 lol

bleek88 · 04-29-11, 01:49 PM

sorry i cant stand bodog they take forever to put up lines.

ShowMeDaMoney · 04-29-11, 02:46 PM

my friend suggesting... take Celts to win it all... take LA to win it all....

If Bulls get thru to Finals they should be a dog... take them there. Ugh, it's tough

I think it may be easier to just fade the Heat against Boston +170... and then see what happens from there.

bonestock · 04-29-11, 03:31 PM

In @ +165 in BOSTON

ShowMeDaMoney · 04-30-11, 12:14 AM

think I'm stuck with my bet unless I sack the **** up and decide to play the Bulls\Lakers to win it all....risking 200 each time. Only problem... if the Celtics somehow squeak through to the finals I'm in a world of trouble if they win it (against LAL or anyone else)

Even still, I thikn that's one of only options.

Other option... take Celtics to beat Heat and just pray lol. I could fade the Heat against in the ECF, but I don't wanna be in this for 800 all of the sudden. Should I just suck it up and lose my 400 on the Heat? They don't have a prayer of plowing through Boston, Chicago and then LAL consecutively... not a chance in hell.

I'm looking for a book that will take my action on the field in the east (+110 at scoresand____.com)...if that lost, I fade Miami in the finals to break even. So far, can't find a reputable book that will take it.