So, we have been pretty hot lately cashing over 30 units in profit since April 18th in NBA and MLB picks (plays documented in previous posts).
As you know, I really enjoy doing writeups as that allows me to think through my picks twice - once when capping and once when doing the writeup. I also enjoy posting my plays here, because I appreciate your guys' thoughts and comments in support of or against my plays.
After all, unless we share our thoughts on each others' plays, we will never get better at our craft. If we learn from each other, we have a much better chance of beating the books. The books are our enemy and the b books have all the advantages. So... let's use our collective knowledge to beat them - it's one of the few weapons we have in this war.
Unfortunately, I don't have time for an in-depth writeup of my plays before I have to leave for work today. However, I will be posting all of my NBA/MLB plays with my thoughts and line updates throughout the day when I have some extra time at work.
In the NBA, I will be playing:
Atl/Orl Under 178 1.5x
NO/LAL Under 183 4x
Bulls/Pacers Over 186 (-120) .5x
I have not locked these plays in because I am awaiting the ref assignments at 9am EST. As I am sure you know, in the NBA playoffs, the ref assignments really matter and can make the difference between a one point win, loss or push. Once I know the refs, I will finalize my unit size and the lock the plays in. My top plays are Atl/Orlando under and NO/LAL under. However, I really do like the over in the Bulls game as well. None of these plays are worthy of big plays. Therefore, I do not expect the amount of units to change much from what is posted above. I will be playing conservative with unit count today.
I know you guys are going to think I am crazy and stubborn for playing the over in the Bulls game. If you remember, I did a writeup on the Bulls/Pacers game from last Saturday here http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basket...4-23-11-a.html
I posted the link in this thread, because my reasoning for the over in that game also applies to this game. The pace should lead to a game in the 190's, as long as these teams don't shoot below 40%. The key to this play is whether these teams shoot in the 38% range for three games in a row. I don't think that happens. Now, before you ask if I realize Rose is hurt, of course I do. However, I have no doubt Rose will play. Even if he doesn't, I still like the over in that game.
In the other two games, the pace and history of those matchups tells me the under will hit. Plus, all four of those teams love to play D when facing each other.
I use line movement to decide whether to add units or reduce units. So I will let you know how the line is looking throughout the day. I fully expect the Atl/Orl and NO/LAL totals to drop, and the Bulls total to rise, sometime before tip. I love that the public is on the over in the Atl/Orl and NO/LAL game 70%+ and on the under in the Bulls game by up to 80%. Remember, it never hurts to fade the majority with our plays.
I don't have any MLB leans yet, but will post them when I do.
Finally, I will most likely be making a spot play in the NHL today on the Chicago Blackhawks ML (+140). They are in Luongo's head, and despite Vancouver being the better team this year in the regular season and playing at home, the Hawks just took three in a row and I expect a fourth tonight. Luongo is just not mentally strong enough to withstand this Hawks team and the recent run they have made. Sometimes, you just can't beat a certain team, and in Luongo's case, that team is the Hawks.
As always, let me hear your guys' thoughts and reasoning behind why you like or dislike these plays. Good luck!
As you know, I really enjoy doing writeups as that allows me to think through my picks twice - once when capping and once when doing the writeup. I also enjoy posting my plays here, because I appreciate your guys' thoughts and comments in support of or against my plays.
After all, unless we share our thoughts on each others' plays, we will never get better at our craft. If we learn from each other, we have a much better chance of beating the books. The books are our enemy and the b books have all the advantages. So... let's use our collective knowledge to beat them - it's one of the few weapons we have in this war.
Unfortunately, I don't have time for an in-depth writeup of my plays before I have to leave for work today. However, I will be posting all of my NBA/MLB plays with my thoughts and line updates throughout the day when I have some extra time at work.
In the NBA, I will be playing:
Atl/Orl Under 178 1.5x
NO/LAL Under 183 4x
Bulls/Pacers Over 186 (-120) .5x
I have not locked these plays in because I am awaiting the ref assignments at 9am EST. As I am sure you know, in the NBA playoffs, the ref assignments really matter and can make the difference between a one point win, loss or push. Once I know the refs, I will finalize my unit size and the lock the plays in. My top plays are Atl/Orlando under and NO/LAL under. However, I really do like the over in the Bulls game as well. None of these plays are worthy of big plays. Therefore, I do not expect the amount of units to change much from what is posted above. I will be playing conservative with unit count today.
I know you guys are going to think I am crazy and stubborn for playing the over in the Bulls game. If you remember, I did a writeup on the Bulls/Pacers game from last Saturday here http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basket...4-23-11-a.html
I posted the link in this thread, because my reasoning for the over in that game also applies to this game. The pace should lead to a game in the 190's, as long as these teams don't shoot below 40%. The key to this play is whether these teams shoot in the 38% range for three games in a row. I don't think that happens. Now, before you ask if I realize Rose is hurt, of course I do. However, I have no doubt Rose will play. Even if he doesn't, I still like the over in that game.
In the other two games, the pace and history of those matchups tells me the under will hit. Plus, all four of those teams love to play D when facing each other.
I use line movement to decide whether to add units or reduce units. So I will let you know how the line is looking throughout the day. I fully expect the Atl/Orl and NO/LAL totals to drop, and the Bulls total to rise, sometime before tip. I love that the public is on the over in the Atl/Orl and NO/LAL game 70%+ and on the under in the Bulls game by up to 80%. Remember, it never hurts to fade the majority with our plays.
I don't have any MLB leans yet, but will post them when I do.
Finally, I will most likely be making a spot play in the NHL today on the Chicago Blackhawks ML (+140). They are in Luongo's head, and despite Vancouver being the better team this year in the regular season and playing at home, the Hawks just took three in a row and I expect a fourth tonight. Luongo is just not mentally strong enough to withstand this Hawks team and the recent run they have made. Sometimes, you just can't beat a certain team, and in Luongo's case, that team is the Hawks.
As always, let me hear your guys' thoughts and reasoning behind why you like or dislike these plays. Good luck!
