Should the Spurs ML be a large play on Saturday?

sweetjones55 · 04-22-11, 10:46 PM

I think a lot of people think SA is the play based on the experience but they just don't match up well with the Grizz. Memphis is not scared of SA at all. Grizzlies are a horrible team on the road yet they stole game 1 on the road and easily could have gotten game 2 on the road. They are one of the best home teams in the NBA. Memphis has never won a playoff game at home in their franchise history, the place is going to be rocking. SA best player, Manu, is not fully healthy. Have to ask yourself, Why did early money on this game moved the line from the #8 Seed Memphis PK to Memphis -2?

Dexter · 04-22-11, 10:49 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

I have to wonder if Memphis got the win in game 1 and now will struggle to get another win in this series. The spurs at + money in game 3 sounds like highway robbery. I know the grizz match up well here but i gotta like the spurs experience to find a way to get a huge win here and shift the direction of this series back in there favour. I think the Spurs ML at +115 is a very large play. Thoughts?

im shocked to see this thread by you....i know you have been anti spurs most of the year when they were "the best team"......i always felt the same way about them....i think memphis will give them a good series.

Dexter · 04-22-11, 10:50 PM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

I think a lot of people think SA is the play based on the experience but they just don't match up well with the Grizz. Memphis is not scared of SA at all. Grizzlies are a horrible team on the road yet they stole game 1 on the road and easily could have gotten game 2 on the road. They are one of the best home teams in the NBA. SA best player, Manu, is not fully healthy. Have to ask yourself, Why did early money on this game moved the line from the #8 Seed Memphis PK to Memphis -2?

did any of that movement occur after u posted ur play?

lakerboy · 04-22-11, 10:50 PM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

I think a lot of people think SA is the play based on the experience but they just don't match up well with the Grizz. Memphis is not scared of SA at all. Grizzlies are a horrible team on the road yet they stole game 1 on the road and easily could have gotten game 2 on the road. They are one of the best home teams in the NBA. Have to ask yourself, Why did early money on this game moved the line from the #8 Seed Memphis PK to Memphis -2?

I think the line movement here is not worth an opinion. I just think the spurs will win this game based on experience. I do agree that the spurs series price was very fishy before it started but i think the grizz should have put more effort into game 2 and will regret it. Remiinds a bit of the lakers series.

goldengreek · 04-22-11, 10:52 PM

This series reminds me of the Ok City / Laker series from last yr

Watch out for Memphis next year ( 50 win season ? )

This series goes 6 or 7 and the spurs will have a very hard time

sweetjones55 · 04-22-11, 10:52 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

I think the line movement here is not worth an opinion. I just think the spurs will win this game based on experience. I do agree that the spurs series price was very fishy before it started but i think the grizz should have put more effort into game 2 and will regret it. Remiinds a bit of the lakers series.

Can't compare LA and SA. Lakers are much, much better than SA is. Lakers are fully healthy too and the Grizzlies are better than the Hornets. Grizzlies beat the Spurs twice at home this year, N.O lost every game to LA in the regular season. Saying two points of line movement dealing with an #8 seed and #1 seed days before the game is not worth an opinion is a cop out, it matters.

No coincidences · 04-22-11, 10:52 PM

I think you're safe going big on one and then, if it doesn't hit for you in Game 3, doubling up on the other. I really think they split the next two -- just not sure which one the Spurs take.

sweetjones55 · 04-22-11, 10:55 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

did any of that movement occur after u posted ur play?

Yes all the movement happened about within 1.5 hours after I posted my play (I played the opener the second it came out) but I don't move lines two full points.

lakerboy · 04-22-11, 10:56 PM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

Can't compare LA and SA. Lakers are much, much better than SA is. Lakers are fully healthy too and the Grizzlies are better than the Hornets. Grizzlies beat the Spurs twice at home this year, N.O lost every game to LA in the regular season. Saying the line movement is not worth an opinion is a cop out, it matters.

Are you on any team here? Just curious cause if it doesnt go to -3 the spurs win and then line movement means nothing here.

ThaTopMoron · 04-22-11, 10:57 PM

I've been doing great the last couple of days now finally, I like the Spurs to win but Grizz to come out strong, leaning towards Spurs ML and Mem 1h.

Dexter · 04-22-11, 10:58 PM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

Yes all the movement happened about within 1.5 hours after I posted my play (I played the opener the second it came out) but I don't move lines two full points.

pk to 2 is not really a true 2 pt move

Love The Action · 04-22-11, 10:58 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

I think the line movement here is not worth an opinion. I just think the spurs will win this game based on experience. I do agree that the spurs series price was very fishy before it started but i think the grizz should have put more effort into game 2 and will regret it. Remiinds a bit of the lakers series.

Why doesn't the early line movement warrant an opinion? I believe SJ was intimating that "sharp" money pushed it to -2. There are only two explanations for this: (1) get a better price on the Spurs; or (2) because Memphis is the play. I have not yet capped this game, and generally play totals anyway, so I don't have a lean on this one yet. However, I would say Ginobli's injury factors in huge because it allows Hill and Neal to dominate off the bench. If either Hill or Neal need to play in Ginobli's role, I think Memphis takes this one. Good luck.

aireent777 · 04-22-11, 11:04 PM

Now, this is a healthy discussion. I do think Spurs should take this game. Like No Coin said, they should split these next two games going back to San Antonio in game 5 with the series tied at 2. I just hope Spurs got this one numbered. Also liking the Spurs but taking the points and maybe even buying more.

ThaTopMoron · 04-22-11, 11:08 PM

Everything is evening out now... Pacers Sixers Knicks 0-3, people thinking Indy could win gm 3 and a lot of people on NY for some reason.

Now LA taking control tonight. I think trend continues and Spurs in 3rd playoff game get in gear. Bulls finish off sweep.

M.W. · 04-22-11, 11:16 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

pk to 2 is not really a true 2 pt move

Right. It's really 1.5.

sweetjones55 · 04-22-11, 11:40 PM

When was the last time anyone saw a #8 seed move from PK to -2 days before the game? I'll be shocked if anyone can provide an example.

vyomguy · 04-22-11, 11:43 PM

Spurs are a old team...they want to get over this series quick so that they are well rested to face thunder. Memphis lucked out in game 1 with ginobli injury. If he plays, spurs will win.

SJ, the regular season record means squat in playoffs...its a different ball game when it comes to playoffs. This is where experience counts the most.

LB...instead of going big on this one, I would play the next two games as series....bet x units this game on spurs, if they dont win...bet 2x units on next game....coz spurs will take one of these games for sure. This is why playoffs are money brother

sportfan · 04-22-11, 11:45 PM

texhooper · 04-23-11, 12:28 AM

wow, since when do you seriously ask for opinions? this feels like a trick.

i'll be at the game with a bet on the grizzlies. i'm surprised you're dismissing this line move here, also. i expect a grizzlies win. they didn't really play all that great in games 1 and 2 and still managed to steal game 1, and had game 2 down to 2 points with 14 seconds left. they'll play with more of a spark in this game and yes, the fedex forum will be a madhouse. i'm finally buying into how good they are this year now that they're carrying out their gameplan with success in the playoffs. very hardnosed, defensive minded approach and just a brand new attitude on both ends of the floor. the addition of battier was huge for the locker room and for the new defensive mindset as well. that guy is like a god to this city, man. spurs are more of a finesse team now and i just see them getting punched in the mouth in this game as it will be a very emotional one for the team and for the city of memphis. i agree with coin and vy, but to take their thoughts a step further i feel pretty confident that game 3 will go to the grizz and they'll come back down to reality and drop game 4.

those are my thoughts.

Scorpion · 04-23-11, 12:32 AM

Originally posted by goldengreek

This series reminds me of the Ok City / Laker series from last yr

Watch out for Memphis next year ( 50 win season ? )

This series goes 6 or 7 and the spurs will have a very hard time

I agree
I have Mem -1 in game #3

HoulihansTX · 04-23-11, 12:38 AM

Spurs are the #2 overall seed in the whole NBA, and are getting 2 points.

Nuff said.

No coincidences · 04-23-11, 12:53 AM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

Spurs are the #2 overall seed in the whole NBA, and are getting 2 points.

Nuff said.

Yet bets so far are surprisingly split.

MrXYZ · 04-23-11, 01:40 AM

Good luck with your Spurs pick, they're the least respected of the elite teams and have been written off too soon. +115 is excellent value IMO. But it could come down to 1 or 2 possessions and not sure I'd want to sweating over a big ML play on it.

kostasgr · 04-23-11, 02:37 AM

Spurs will win tonight i think!

Qtip · 04-23-11, 03:14 AM

Going to come down to the wire just like first 2 games, games a pick/flip, so I'd take the points.

suicidekings · 04-23-11, 04:58 AM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

When was the last time anyone saw a #8 seed move from PK to -2 days before the game? I'll be shocked if anyone can provide an example.

This being a 1 vs 8 doesn't matter at all at this point. Coming back to seeding over and over again is not beneficial to analyzing the game. Both teams have the capacity to win the series and I'd be surprised if it didn't go 6+ games...

suicidekings · 04-23-11, 05:25 AM

Also, early movement can be very meaningful, however only in the correct context. The last time these teams played in Memphis the Grizzlies closed at -2 and they won by 7. The time before that it closed at -1.5 and they won by 16. They just played two very close games in San Antonio and split them 1-1.

The fact that the line moved from pk to -2 seems trivial to me as it's only moving to the same spot the market adjusted it to in the last two games in Memphis. There's no mystery to it. The question I would ask is why did it open up as a pk rather than at MEM -1.5/-2 in the first place?

RoagBettor · 04-23-11, 05:38 AM

Originally posted by suicidekings

Also, early movement can be very meaningful, however only in the correct context. The last time these teams played in Memphis the Grizzlies closed at -2 and they won by 7. The time before that it closed at -1.5 and they won by 16. They just played two very close games in San Antonio and split them 1-1.

The fact that the line moved from pk to -2 seems trivial to me as it's only moving to the same spot the market adjusted it to in the last two games in Memphis. There's no mystery to it. The question I would ask is why did it open up as a pk rather than at MEM -1.5/-2 in the first place?

Exactly. If you really want to focus on the line, then this is where you need to start. Nice analysis sk.