I'm playing on the under in the Lakers/Hornets game Wednesday.
The line opened at 187 and jumped to 187.5 with a whopping 90% of all bets on the over. With so many people on the over, you might expect Pinny, 5D, MBK, etc. to be juicing the over. However, they are all holding even or juicing the under slightly. I have locked in 1 unit already and am looking to add more, possible up to 10, after checking out the refs.
Here is my reasoning:
Even though most of their recent matchups have gone over and a lot of recent trends for both teams point over, I really think the true identity of these defensive minded teams comes out in this game and we see the under hit. With the line set at 187.5 and probable to rise (although I do expect some RLM at some point), I think that gives us a buffer over the recent low 180's we have seen for this matchup. The last time these two teams went under, the game total was set at 188.5.
Finally, I think the team chemistry building endeavor of backing up Lamar Odom, where Kobe, Pau, Shannon Brown and others attended his sixth man of the year ceremony, brought this team together in the face of recent criticism.
For all those reasons, I like this game to stay under the posted total. If I see a Rodney Mott, or another one of the refs that favors the under almost as much, I will be pounding the under for a possible 10 unit play.
I would love to hear some thoughts opposing my view. Good luck to all.
The line opened at 187 and jumped to 187.5 with a whopping 90% of all bets on the over. With so many people on the over, you might expect Pinny, 5D, MBK, etc. to be juicing the over. However, they are all holding even or juicing the under slightly. I have locked in 1 unit already and am looking to add more, possible up to 10, after checking out the refs.
Here is my reasoning:
- The Hornets shot 60% in game one of this series. I fully expect them to return to their average of about 46%.
- The Lakers were embarrassed and displayed a poor defensive effort in losing game one. I fully expect the Lakers to come out with some defensive intensity from the outset. The pace in the first game was similar to pace set in game one of the Bulls/Pacers and Magic/Hawks series. The common thread with those game were that they all went over due to above average shooting percentages and paces which deviated from these teams' averages. However, after the Bulls and Magic ramped up the defensive effort, both of their game two's went under. I expect the Lakers to do the same here and for the under to hit just like the second games of Bulls/Pacers and Hawks/Magic series.
- Both the Lakers and Hornets were under machines all year, with the Hornets going 32-51 o/u and the Lakers going 34-59 o/u. On the road, the Hornets were 16-26 o/u, while the Lakers were 18/24 o/u at home. With the total set between 185 and 189, the two teams were a combined 17-24 o/u. When the Lakers were favored by 11 or more, they went 2-8 o/u and when a dog of 11 or more, the Hornets went 0-1 o/u. On two days' rest, the two teams are a combined 7-11 o/u.
- Both teams are at the bottom of the league in pace and possessions per game stats.
Even though most of their recent matchups have gone over and a lot of recent trends for both teams point over, I really think the true identity of these defensive minded teams comes out in this game and we see the under hit. With the line set at 187.5 and probable to rise (although I do expect some RLM at some point), I think that gives us a buffer over the recent low 180's we have seen for this matchup. The last time these two teams went under, the game total was set at 188.5.
Finally, I think the team chemistry building endeavor of backing up Lamar Odom, where Kobe, Pau, Shannon Brown and others attended his sixth man of the year ceremony, brought this team together in the face of recent criticism.
For all those reasons, I like this game to stay under the posted total. If I see a Rodney Mott, or another one of the refs that favors the under almost as much, I will be pounding the under for a possible 10 unit play.
I would love to hear some thoughts opposing my view. Good luck to all.
