Will someone explain the Atl/Orl line to me???

LT Profits · 04-19-11, 02:49 PM

happens all the time when the favorite loses Game 1 at home, the line is almost always higher in Game 2 than Game 1

mann2chc · 04-19-11, 03:14 PM

The lines just want you to 2nd guess urself or even overthink this play... Simply, Howard is the only one that the hawks have to worry abt matchup wise and you seen what their gameplan is on him... Let superman get his and shut down everybody else... I dont see why this changes tonite... Hawks should win bc the magic arent good enuff to lay this many points to any team in the playoffs and thats considering that the hawks seem disinterested at times... GL!!!

LT Profits · 04-19-11, 03:17 PM

I see Magic winning by about 10 myself, but I like the over better. 99-89

Qtip · 04-19-11, 03:19 PM

Because ORL is the better team and they have to win this one after losing the first game at home. You never know when ATL will show up, after winning game 1 chances are great such a lazy team takes the night off. Also, after seeing them in the post season last year, I'd chalk up this the game 1 win as a successful post season for the Hawks.

Qtip · 04-19-11, 03:20 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

I see Magic winning by about 10 myself, but I like the over better. 99-89

Hawks prob won't get out of the 70's tonight, cuidado.

Smalo89 · 04-19-11, 03:32 PM

Originally posted by Qtip

Because ORL is the better team and they have to win this one after losing the first game at home. You never know when ATL will show up, after winning game 1 chances are great such a lazy team takes the night off. Also, after seeing them in the post season last year, I'd chalk up this the game 1 win as a successful post season for the Hawks.

This is the postseason and the Hawks actually have something to play for. I agree that they were lazy and took nights off in the reg season but they match up well with orlando. I think this will be a close game.

ThisGuy · 04-19-11, 03:47 PM

Nevermind the fact that Atl had won each of the last 3 in the reg season. Heinrich's upgraded D compared to Bibby gets overlooked. He can create a shot for himself too which poor ol Bibby can't anymore. OTOH refs are awfully hard on Dwight most of the time and they might be in his corner this game

suicidekings · 04-19-11, 03:58 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

I see Magic winning by about 10 myself, but I like the over better. 99-89

What makes you say Magic by 10 when the Hawks have played them extremely well all year? Who on the Magic is going to make the difference? Richardson/Turkoglu/Arenas/Reddick all played poorly against the Hawks this season.

LT Profits · 04-19-11, 04:10 PM

Hawks are one of, if not THE, most overrated teams in the NBA. That doesn't explain why they have played the Magic so tough, but this is the playoffs so you would think the cream will rise to the top and the better team should prevail. If the Hawks go up 2-0 in Orlando, then it would be hard to deny that they are better than the Magic. I don't think that's the case, so I think it is more likely Orlando finally steps up vs. what I think is a garbage team.

LT Profits · 04-19-11, 04:12 PM

There is also major RLM in this game, with 72% of bets on Atlanta

kaijunn · 04-19-11, 04:22 PM

Hawks should cover. didn't like them in the regular season, actually i think every time i bet on them in the regular season, they disappointed me... but Hawks in the playoffs is a different story. they have more confidence now after game 1, and still good enough athleticism/talent to hang with the Magic. should be a close and tight game, and Magic get the W.

suicidekings · 04-19-11, 04:27 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Hawks are one of, if not THE, most overrated teams in the NBA. That doesn't explain why they have played the Magic so tough, but this is the playoffs so you would think the cream will rise to the top and the better team should prevail. If the Hawks go up 2-0 in Orlando, then it would be hard to deny that they are better than the Magic. I don't think that's the case, so I think it is more likely Orlando finally steps up vs. what I think is a garbage team.

As a general case, I would agree with this comment. However in the playoffs, matchups > overall power rankings, and the Hawks present serious matchup issues for the Magic. Specifically Atlanta's overall size and athleticism, and their excellent 3pt defense, while Orlando is the team in the NBA that relies the most heavily on 3pt shooting. Laying -8 or more on the Magic in this case is out of the question.

LT Profits · 04-19-11, 04:30 PM

Well, I did say I am on the OVER and not the side.

suicidekings · 04-19-11, 04:31 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Well, I did say I am on the OVER and not the side.

Fair. I can definitely see the Over hitting here. GL with it.

asjulian · 04-19-11, 04:37 PM

why is nobody talking about the fact that Atlanta has won 4 out of the 5 games against Orlando? I see Orlando winning tonight, but not anywhere close to 9

GBrooks77 · 04-19-11, 04:46 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Hawks are one of, if not THE, most overrated teams in the NBA. That doesn't explain why they have played the Magic so tough, but this is the playoffs so you would think the cream will rise to the top and the better team should prevail. If the Hawks go up 2-0 in Orlando, then it would be hard to deny that they are better than the Magic. I don't think that's the case, so I think it is more likely Orlando finally steps up vs. what I think is a garbage team.

I agree, although it is a big line and hard to bet I don't see Orlando losing tonight when they need the game as bad as they do. They'll probably split the games in Atlanta.

suicidekings · 04-19-11, 04:54 PM

Originally posted by asjulian

why is nobody talking about the fact that Atlanta has won 4 out of the 5 games against Orlando? I see Orlando winning tonight, but not anywhere close to 9

We're talking about the reasons behind the 4 of 5 as predictive factors for this game. The 4 of 5 itself says nothing about this game. Why do you bring this up and then suggest the opposite will happen tonight?

demens · 04-19-11, 05:17 PM

I dont understand why people keep thinking the Hawks match-up well with Orlando. They happened to win 3 times during the year, it does not mean they match-up well, you need to dig deep to analyze those wins and when they came, under what kind of circumstances and whether they have any meaning at all.

They were 1-7 last season, including the play-off sweep the 7 losses were all by 14 points or more. I think maybe a little motivational factors played a part in Atl "matching up" well vs Orlando this year. It wont last all series and the better team will step it up eventually.

And dont try to act like these teams are so different that last years records dont matter. They clearly matched up like shit last year, so look at the changes in detail and tell me how it is that Atl matches up well this time around. Atl has practically the same roster other then Hinrich, is he an upgrade over Biddy, sure are the Hawks better under Drew then they were under Woodson, hell NO! Now look at Orlando, are they as good as they were last year, nope, whats different about them? Vince Carter is gone, Lewis is gone and Gortat is gone, now please tell me which of those 3 was the reason match-up problem that cause ATL to lose 7 games by and average of 24 points to Orlando last year? Because i dont think its any of them. So what is the difference then?

This match-up is pretty simple to me. Hawks can't stop Howard, they already showed that in game 1. So its all on the shoulders of Magic shooters. If they shoot well, i see no match-up or adjustment Hawks can throw at them to have any chance at all. The problem with shooters is they are not hot each game. But i'd bet they will be hot more games then they wont be in this series.

HoulihansTX · 04-19-11, 05:19 PM

You are getting 9 points with a team that is 4-1 vs their opponent this season.

The one loss was by 4. The line on the game, 9.

ThisGuy · 04-19-11, 05:21 PM

The teams personnel are more different than most realize from last season, including Atlanta having a new coach

Obv Orl can cover and I think it's better than 50/50 they'll win but I expected 6.5ish

face · 04-19-11, 05:21 PM

atl moneyline worth a shot. but las vegas probably knows something about this game, so i'm going small.

Fed_42420 · 04-19-11, 05:21 PM

I disagree 100% that atlanta is overrated, if anything they are underrated. They are extremely talented and athletic. There problem is their youth/immaturity. They are a team that doesn't play together and doesn't listen to their coach, you never if they will show up because of their immaturity. But if they can come together and grow they could demolish Orlando then beat Chicago. Don't get me wrong, I dont think atlanta will do this but they can and may. As for tonight I think atlanta covers the spread pretty easy. After a game 1 win this young team will have tons of confidence and be very hard to beat just because of that.

demens · 04-19-11, 05:26 PM

Originally posted by Fed_42420

I disagree 100% that atlanta is overrated, if anything they are underrated. They are extremely talented and athletic. There problem is their youth/immaturity. They are a team that doesn't play together and doesn't listen to their coach, you never if they will show up because of their immaturity. But if they can come together and grow they could demolish Orlando then beat Chicago. Don't get me wrong, I dont think atlanta will do this but they can and may. As for tonight I think atlanta covers the spread pretty easy. After a game 1 win this young team will have tons of confidence and be very hard to beat just because of that.

I think its the opposite. These teams are more similar to what they were last year then people realize. Magic are different but the players they lost do not matter at all in a match-up with Atl, they will matter when it comes to the 2nd round.

Atl may play a different style but they have practically an identical roster. You can only teach an old dog some many tricks, and the way they played this year shows they have very little interest in new tricks. If there is a change its that they have regressed.

vyomguy · 04-19-11, 05:43 PM

The line says it all...take magic.

suicidekings · 04-19-11, 06:18 PM

Originally posted by demens

I dont understand why people keep thinking the Hawks match-up well with Orlando. They happened to win 3 times during the year, it does not mean they match-up well, you need to dig deep to analyze those wins and when they came, under what kind of circumstances and whether they have any meaning at all.

They were 1-7 last season, including the play-off sweep the 7 losses were all by 14 points or more. I think maybe a little motivational factors played a part in Atl "matching up" well vs Orlando this year. It wont last all series and the better team will step it up eventually.

And dont try to act like these teams are so different that last years records dont matter. They clearly matched up like shit last year, so look at the changes in detail and tell me how it is that Atl matches up well this time around. Atl has practically the same roster other then Hinrich, is he an upgrade over Biddy, sure are the Hawks better under Drew then they were under Woodson, hell NO! Now look at Orlando, are they as good as they were last year, nope, whats different about them? Vince Carter is gone, Lewis is gone and Gortat is gone, now please tell me which of those 3 was the reason match-up problem that cause ATL to lose 7 games by and average of 24 points to Orlando last year? Because i dont think its any of them. So what is the difference then?

This match-up is pretty simple to me. Hawks can't stop Howard, they already showed that in game 1. So its all on the shoulders of Magic shooters. If they shoot well, i see no match-up or adjustment Hawks can throw at them to have any chance at all. The problem with shooters is they are not hot each game. But i'd bet they will be hot more games then they wont be in this series.

1) Atlanta has a different coach
2) Horford moving back to playing Forward instead of Centre is HUGE for the Hawks.
3) Who cares about the players that are gone when the new Magic players (Arenas, J.Richardson, Duhon, Turkoglu) have all underperformed.
4) Motivational factors for Atlanta are significant
5) Atlanta outshot the Hawks in all 4 games and held the Magic to under 23% 3pt shooting during the regular season. 3 point shooting is the bread and butter of the Orlando Magic...

So the Magic went 3-1 against the Hawks last year and then went on to destroy them in the playoffs. Makes sense. Now that the situation is reversed, with the Hawks dominating the season series 3-1 this year, and overpowering them in the first game in Orlando by 10, it's just a false flag? Why are this season's wins for the Hawks less meaningful than the Magic's regular season wins from last year?

demens · 04-19-11, 06:29 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

So the Magic went 3-1 against the Hawks last year and then went on to destroy them in the playoffs. Makes sense. Now that the situation is reversed, with the Hawks dominating the season series 3-1 this year, and overpowering them in the first game in Orlando by 10, it's just a false flag? Why are this season's wins for the Hawks less meaningful than the Magic's regular season wins from last year?

Because the Magic are a better team. At least thats what i think, like someone else said, if Atl take it tonight i might have to rethink that. The regular season record doesn't matter in either case, but its double doesn't count when its the weaker team that has a winning record in the regular season. How many times have we seen a play-off matchup of a high seed playing a low seed hyped up by announcers, ohh wait, this one might be tight folk because crappy team B actually beat the best team in the league A a few times in the regular season. And what happens then, that weaker teams gets swept.

I'm not saying that the difference between Atl and Olr is that big, but it is significant and i will be surprised if Atl continue to play well.

suicidekings · 04-19-11, 06:40 PM

Originally posted by demens

Because the Magic are a better team. At least thats what i think, like someone else said, if Atl take it tonight i might have to rethink that. The regular season record doesn't matter in either case, but its double doesn't count when its the weaker team that has a winning record in the regular season. How many times have we seen a play-off matchup of a high seed playing a low seed hyped up by announcers, ohh wait, this one might be tight folk because crappy team B actually beat the best team in the league A a few times in the regular season. And what happens then, that weaker teams gets swept.

I'm not saying that the difference between Atl and Olr is that big, but it is significant and i will be surprised if Atl continue to play well.

I don't think the Hawks are a better team, with respect to their overall ability to play other opponents. I just think the Magic are going to have a really tough time winning this series because the Hawks have a plan, are motivated, and have been excellent at disrupting the Magic's ability to be effective from behind the arc, which is critical to the entire Magic offense.