LOL why did the line open at -2.5? 
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Originally posted by RoagBettorLOL why did the line open at -2.5?
What do you think the line should open at?
Books have a certain process of the way they set the line. I can't pretend that i know exactly how that happens but i have a basic idea. Its based off the Win% and win margins. Then its adjusted of subjective factors like motivation/rest/form and injuries/suspensions and public teams.
So if record wise Magic come out as a fav, what do you think the line should be set at with Howard out? Books can't just pull one of out their ass and set it at -10 can they?
They clearly did not set it right since the market moved it all the way to 6. How often does that happen. When it does happen, a move like that is usually cause by a line-up change (injury) AFTER the line is already out. I'd be willing to bet that an NBA line (opener) moving 4 points without an injury announcement hits at an unprecedented high %.Comment -
Orlando was +6.5 to close. Nice Value for middling if you predicted the line jump. 4 pts to play with
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some people have this theory about some mysterious all knowing vegas computer that can predict games on the button every time, and knows what you're having for dinner. These are paranoid beliefs. People like Billy Walters create their own lines and look for soft vegas stuff to unload and get rich on. The lines can be soft, and vegas doesn't know who you're going to bet on until you make your bets, once you do they adjust accordingly to get action on both sides of the game. The allure of a mysterious line being put out there as bait is what keeps a lot of bettors from thinking rationally. Just step back when you start thinking paranoid thoughts, and take a few deep breathes. Vegas doesn't know what's going to happen unless Tim Donaghy is a zebra for the game.Comment -
Originally posted by demens
it exists , but im not going to post the name of the forum ( CM )Comment -
Originally posted by demensthis is utter garbage.
wrongComment -
Prove it. (whats the title of this thread?)
Btw, FindTheLock, that idea of the over looks genius so far. Dint play it but it was a good idea.Comment -
Originally posted by demens
SORRY IT WAS 2 YRS AGO
DWIGHT DIDNT PLAY IN GAME 6 AT PHILLY
THEY WERE 5.5 POINT DOGS AND WON S/U BY 25
covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/results/2008-2009/boxscore780185.htmlComment -
nice game so far - tight , looks like orlando is getting ready for a strong playoff this seasonComment -
Rose 5/5 from the field, don't do em like that D.Rose!
but Bulls defense looks whack earlyComment -
Bulls 9/10 to start the game. Defense will pick up. Bulls defense i mean.Comment -
Hornets also won their first game without David West recently, at Phoenix. First you have to define "star player" and keep in mind it's for the first game they are out, not subsequent games.Comment -
Originally posted by RoagBettor
Hornets are 6-2 without David West.
Anyone can name a random game where a team won without a star. Show me proof that this is actually something that happens at a winning %.
p.s.
Bulls are gonna win this game by 20+, Magic have no defense.Comment -
or how the hell that applies to this specific game...Originally posted by demens
Hornets are 6-2 without David West.
Anyone can name a random game where a team won without a star. Show me proof that this is actually something that happens at a winning %.Comment -
so far looks like orlando seriosly misses dwight ,, lets see how it tarries onComment -
Or how David West qualifies as the star of a team with Chris Paul on it.Originally posted by chantrainComment -
The system applies to the 1st game playing without star...but it does not apply when multiple starters are out..........Comment -
Show me where this system is being tracked.Originally posted by Pin FishComment -
Bench mob not doing work right nowComment -
gambling gods will work their magic wand in this game ? anything's possibleComment -
I looked at CM and i dont see a thread tracking anything in the 1st 5 pages of the NBA section. Where is it?Originally posted by goldengreek
it exists , but im not going to post the name of the forum ( CM )Comment -
Key to winning at gambling. Realizing that what should happen more often than not doesn't.
There are certain trends you just don't go against. Often they don't make sense.
1. betting on team with star out in their 1st game.
2. Sox/Yankee overs
3. Betting under on Coll hoops total 160 and above
4. west coast team play 1 pm east coast game in NFL(trend is winding down but it always was $$$)
5. NFL out of conference game after playing 3 straight division games take out of conf team.
You just bet these games Don't ask why. When you try to justify it, you miss out.Comment -
Demens..............this system has been in use for a while by many good cappers...........read what I said "but it does not apply when multiple starters are out" ...I have 5 units on the Bulls -3.5.....................Comment -
Multiple starters are not out for the Magic so not sure why you keep talking about multiple starters.Originally posted by Pin Fish
And this system is utter made up non sense imo. No offense. Show me proof that its not. Yes i know the Thunder won a game @ Boston without Durrant and that Hornets won a game without West. Show me a comprehensive list of games and cherry pick a random one that fits your argument.Comment -
Good pick if Rose stays on the bench lolComment -
bulls need to step up that defense. playing like shitComment -
Rose playing good, its every other starter thats sucking. Defense as a whole looks bad with the startersComment -
Bulls shot 62.5 % in the first half and we are down 1
I think we are safe here ( crosses fingers )Comment -
Do the Bulls have any reason to play starters the whole 2H ?Comment -
I told you three fukin times that I have a 2.5 year running thread tracking this systemOriginally posted by demens
Like someone else said above.. ppl dissagree who is considered a "superstar" some ppl will count someone like Stephen Curry.. I dont
Google it or find out the forum with the initial CM and go find it..its documented in thereComment -
huh ??????Originally posted by chantrain
they shot 65 % as a team... the entire roster was making their shotsComment -
ew, Bulls looking awful. Noah and Boozer playing awful.Comment -
it's because of the way the magic game plan without howard. vegas has the total set at such a low number because of historical meetings between these two teams having a low number, but without howard the magic shoot more 3's and run a more fluid offense. Howard misses a lot of FT's but he makes up for it with blocked shots and rebounds.Comment -
1st of all, shut your dirty mouth you peace of trash. You run around the forum begging for respect and this is how you respond to people?Originally posted by goldengreek
I asked you 3 fuckin times to show me proof. More then 3 times. Just like i told you you were wrong that Howard missed a play-off game multiple times. Open your eyes and read the posts.
Originally posted by demensComment -
Originally posted by demens
Do you thing you are talking to goat milk ? Put it on pause a bit
I was right about Howard missing a playoff game and wrong about the year.
Im not your personal fuking servant.. look harder.. Im not gonna get an infraction by posting links to other forums
And... I dont have to prove shit to you son.. Who they fuk are you ? GOD ?
Take my word for it or not.. if you dont take my word for it than look for it.. if you cant find it too bad ...look harder.
Im under no fuking obligation to do shit for you . Do you want me to wipe your ass for u also ?Comment
