Pacers -2 at home on Friday vs. Milwaukee?

[No coincidences]

WTF? -2?

[SUPREME]

Odd right? I'm liking it though...and possibly MIA -10.5 @ MIN

[JOHON8]

Watch it jump to -6 by tomorrow afternoon. Wish my book opened sooner...

[suicidekings]

I'm confused as to why you think this is a weird line? Seems very appropriate to me.

[SUPREME]

I guess Bogut and Delfino going off to have big games may be a factor

[No coincidences]

I'm confused as to why you think this is a weird line? Seems very appropriate to me.

Indiana is at home with a better record (four more wins, two fewer losses), and they were only 2.5-point dogs the last time they visited Milwaukee, where they won SU by 6.

Why wouldn't they be at least -4 here?

[suicidekings]

Indiana is at home with a better record (four more wins, two fewer losses), and they were only 2.5-point dogs the last time they visited Milwaukee, where they won SU by 6. Why wouldn't they be at least -4 here?

Why at least -4?

I don't understand why you cling so strongly to the notion that the line for every game is a function primarily of the two teams' last meeting... It just doesn't work like that.

[No coincidences]

Why at least -4?

I don't understand why you cling so strongly to the notion that the line for every game is a function primarily of the two teams' last meeting... It just doesn't work like that.

I'm not saying that'd be the only factor, but it typically has at least something to do with it.

Indiana has the better record, they're at home, they beat the Bucks SU in Milwaukee the last time the two teams met, they're playing for their playoff lives while the Bucks are virtually eliminated, yet they're only -2?

[stevex]

Line is a little fishy. I would think it would've opened around -4 or around there. If for whatever reason the Pacers line gets jacked up tomorrow, take the Bucks + whatever.

[suicidekings]

I'm not saying that'd be the only factor, but it typically has at least something to do with it. Indiana has the better record, they're at home, they beat the Bucks SU in Milwaukee the last time the two teams met, they're playing for their playoff lives while the Bucks are virtually eliminated, yet they're only -2?

But they're still a 34-42 team challenging for the 8th spot in a weak conference. All three games have been close this season. The books played the line right down the middle and placed it where the numbers say it should go. The pressure is on the Pacers to put the Bucks away for the season, but Scott Skiles doesn't give up easily.

I've already placed my Pacers wager for tomorrow, so don't think I'm undervaluing Indiana. I think they'll show up and win this game comfortably. I still say -2 is a very fair line for this game. Lines rarely reflect a teams' motivation because over the long term, it's equivalent to taking a side and that's a losing proposition compared to balanced action.

[No coincidences]

But they're still a 34-42 team challenging for the 8th spot in a weak conference. All three games have been close this season. The books played the line right down the middle and placed it where the numbers say it should go. The pressure is on the Pacers to put the Bucks away for the season, but Scott Skiles doesn't give up easily.

I've already placed my Pacers wager for tomorrow, so don't think I'm undervaluing Indiana. I think they'll show up and win this game comfortably. I still say -2 is a very fair line for this game. Lines rarely reflect a teams' motivation because over the long term, it's equivalent to taking a side and that's a losing proposition compared to balanced action.

Thanks SK. Seems low to me, but I'm no expert. I would think that especially given what the Pacers did to Milwaukee last time out on the road and given how important this game is for their playoff chances, the books would give them more credit than -2 on their home court. But that's just my take.

[goldengreek]

Line is too low..im on the bucks as of now

[No coincidences]

Line is too low..im on the bucks as of now

I'm really liking POR -2.5, SAC +5.5 and LAC +5.

[goldengreek]

I'm really liking POR -2.5, SAC +5.5 and LAC +5.

Like them all

Circled Port a few days ago

[kobefanatic]

Like them all

Circled Port a few days ago

gg why can't i PM you?

[No coincidences]

Like them all

Circled Port a few days ago

That game should probably be a PK.

-2.5 tells me all I need to know, even with POR coming back from a short road trip.

[suicidekings]

In their last game, Granger went off for 30 points, and the Pacers shot 41 FTs. Haven't looked at the play-by-play data, but I would assume MIL fouled a lot in the final seconds and the Pacer lead swelled because of it.

[No coincidences]

In their last game, Granger went off for 30 points, and the Pacers shot 41 FTs. Haven't looked at the play-by-play data, but I would assume MIL fouled a lot in the final seconds and the Pacer lead swelled because of it.

I see MIL had won the previous six meetings before the last game, too. I suppose that has something to do with it.

What else are you looking at SK?

[kobefanatic]

no one likes boston?

[kobstopa]

you're right it's seem fishy, but there are a couple of statistical fact that it may explain it, but you may just plainly ignore Indiana's true potential for the moment:

fact 1. there have been 6 times winning streak snap this season for Indiana, last one lost to Sac at home
3/25/11 Sacramento L 93-110 Regular Season
3/23/11 @ Charlotte W 111-88 Regular Season
3/21/11 @ New Jersey W 102-98 Regular Season
3/19/11 @ Memphis L 78-99

this is after two solid won on the road. this coming up could be nos 7 snap

fact 2 MIL are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 Fri. games. and IND are 3-7-2 ATS in their last 12 vs. NBA Central.
it's one of those thing where Indiana can potentially some how find a way to shoot themselves in the foot while Poker god is on the Bucks's side

fact 3. Hibbert has a knee injuries, is expected to be in the lineup for Friday's game against the Bucks. He is their key match up and a consistent offensive force in the middle, 20 points -10 reb etc. but he wont be 100% effective.

so the Booker must expect it to be a one bucket decider game here, which is a coin flip for them & they like it, but if Indiana's Granger's outside shots goes off well then it's a backfire.

This is a must win for both teams. Jennings is playing well of late even though they had loss.

personally, Indiana is a good play for sure. gl all

[twelvejewelz]

“This is probably do or die for us,” Milwaukee center Andrew Bogut was quoted as saying about Friday night’s matchup, which tips off at 4:05 PT. “This game is everything for us and probably everything for them, too.”

[SUPREME]

“This is probably do or die for us,” Milwaukee center Andrew Bogut was quoted as saying about Friday night’s matchup, which tips off at 4:05 PT. “This game is everything for us and probably everything for them, too.”

"We really have an opportunity to knock Milwaukee out," forward Danny Granger said. "That will be one less team to worry about even though Charlotte's right behind us still." - Pacers are motivated too, so that ESPN quote is a wash...

[twelvejewelz]

"We really have an opportunity to knock Milwaukee out," forward Danny Granger said. "That will be one less team to worry about even though Charlotte's right behind us still." - Pacers are motivated too, so that ESPN quote is a wash...

Touche! lol . Im not touching this game tomorrow anyway im sure i can find a better one than this one. good luck

[suicidekings]

First look at the card, all I could see was Memphis beating up the Hornets. I took the Grizzlies on the ML (+100) x4.

I think the Thunder can win in Portland. The Blazers do better against teams when they can control the pace of the game, particularly in the second half. The Thunder are not easy to slow down when they get rolling. They're relentless and have proven that 3 times already this season vs the Blazers. I want to take the Blazers here for a few reasons, but I can't pull the trigger on it.

[lyon804]

nice call on la sk btw. i had that one wrong for sure.

[Qtip]

Indiana is at home with a better record (four more wins, two fewer losses), and they were only 2.5-point dogs the last time they visited Milwaukee, where they won SU by 6.

Why wouldn't they be at least -4 here?

Last time they met the closing line was +2.5 Indiana. Subtract the standard 6 for switching courts and you have Indian -3.5 which is most likely where this line will end up. Nothing unusual.

You are just gonna follow the line movement anyway, then say you like the other side to cover so you can think you were right no matter what happens.

[NYSportsGuy210]

Liking Boston (-1.5) for sure at Atlanta. Celtics have the Hawks number this year and are hot at the right time.

Also like OVER in the Portland -OKC Thunder game.

[Mthorn]

Indy wins easily.

[barcelonafc]

pacers cant be trusted, period

[Avenger]

Few flaws I see in your logic:

Feb. 12 game, Bucks were coming off b2b games, the night before, they lost a tough, close game to Grizzlies.

Feb. 12, Maggette was starter, but got injured in the game. Delfino, back up SF, was given his minutes, made the most of it, got MVP of game. Delfino has been starter for the Bucks for a while now and has been playing inconsistently well. Pacers could've taken advantage of Maggette playing badly 1Q, as the score was Pacers 32 Bucks 29.

Feb. 12, Dunleavy was starter for Pacers, not Hansborough, which works in Pacers favor, as Hansborough been a good addition. HOWEVER, Hansborough did not play well v. Bucks, he shot 1 out of 7 and had 2 rebounds in 23 mins. Was it an off day or is there a size disadvantage? Also note, Hansborough has not been playing well lately. don't know why... but his balls are not falling in the bucket, will he have the same problem with the bucks, considering he had a problem with them before?

Feb. 12: the game was won by Granger's excellent 4Q, when he shot 14 of his 30 pts. Granger has been running hot/cold lately, especially his 3 pt shooting. He was fine v. Pistons few days ago but his 3 pt shots were bad, I think it was 1 of 5. Will he be able to repeat his Feb. 12 shooting? It seems that bucks fell apart 4Q in that game, according to Salmons, ""We didn't run the plays, just didn't execute the plays like we should," he said. "Didn't have any ball movement." <--- was that due to fatigue and coach not drawing accurate plays?

There's other factors that work in Pacers favor too... but I'm too lazy to type them.

But for now, I'm leaning towards Bucks. They've been hotter than Pacers and instinct tells me Pacers are not going into Playoff this year.

[woodyman]

seems a little low

[BL]

Bucks will make the playoffs and of course win today. Not losing to Pacers at home 2times in a row

[GTS925]

Can Redd make a difference?

[NBA_Brosuf]

This game here, bucks will want it more. Bucks are only 3 games behind Indy for the last seat place for the playoff. Charlotte stands in between bucks and indy but charlotte is playing orlando and good luck with charlotte winning orlando. So what does that mean?

A win against Indy and a loss by Charlotte ( a possible given that they will lose to orlando) will give them bucks the best chance of stealing that 8th seed. Basically, if you lose, you're out.

Indy won 2 in a row
Charlotte won 4 in a row
Bucks won 1.

As long as everyone keeps on winning, nothing changes but the fact is that after tonight's game, the status of each teams will changes. If indy wins and charlotte loses, Indy will be in a better seat for the 8th seed so there goes the motivation for Indy to kick some azz.

[nastradamus]

Indy or no play. Bucks are 11-25 away. Both teams want this game, but home court will be big advantage here.