Sharp Money

[SexyMit]

Is there no real way of telling with the line movement which side the sharps are on? When do they usually hit the lines? Does anyone have any thoughts on this??

[unde0087]

It depends, normally they are waiting for a certain number to come up

[LT Profits]

Reverse line movement is a beautiful thing!

[BrUno0]

just by looking, right now, the sharp side is Utah Jazz +7

almost 80% of action on lal, not one line change, that says something imo.


obviously, the reverse line movement clears this all up, but by looking, yeah utah looks to be a sharp side.

[chipski]

lakers fix or is on the up and up cancels out all other theorys

but by looking, yeah utah looks to be a sharp side.

why ? because the line didnt go to 7.5 in the early daytime ? but if it did move today then you COULD call it reverse line movement no matter which way it moved if you think that is what is occuring . so how do you know really which cateogry this particular game falls into ?

reverse line movement clears this all up you say ?

sharp money meaning large amounts wagered right ? lets say one guy puts 50 grand on the lakers -6.5 and another guy puts 50 grand on the jazz +7 , with this scenario occuring over and over (in this one game) how can you say what is going on with this particuar game means anything from the perspective you are talking about ?

%s all the little bettors are taking the lakers -6.5 and -7 , but there are also some big wagers on the lakers -6.5 and -7 ....
why would they move the line in every instance to show signs of what is truly occuring ?

reverse line movement to you guys means what ?
example ?
real money is on lakers -7 so the line would go to lakers -6.5 ? yes ?

title of my post is not correct if the really big $ is on a particular team and the game is dirty , but the way the books handle the line movement before the game could be opposite of what will really occur in the game . is confusing .
say ref is going to do everything he can to let the jazz cover 7 pts . a very lagre betting syndicate has pounded the jazz +7 out the ying yang . so the line would move to lakers - 6 if on the up and up from vegas right ? but if it is reverse line movement that would mean lakers would go to -7.5 to create the impression that lakers - pts is the play and get people to take lakers (to try to trick is reverse line movement ? ) anybody get it ? or do i not get it ?

[BrUno0]

lol it's my opinion, it LOOKS like utah is the sharp side, with majority of everyone on LAL....

of course i have no real way to prove this, and no real way to know for sure....obviously??

[SexyMit]

All the money was on Lakers and yesterday it went to 6.5 right? So that means sharp side is Utah?

[chipski]

lol it's my opinion, it LOOKS like utah is the sharp side, with majority of everyone on LAL....

of course i have no real way to prove this, and no real way to know for sure....obviously??

I have no idea if you work for a book or know the inside of the industry about how this works . sounded like you knew by what you stated , way you came across .

[BrUno0]

I have no idea if you work for a book or know the inside of the industry about how this works . sounded like you knew by what you stated , way you came across .

nope, don't work for a book.

Just use online trackers to see where the actions at, and then look at lines at a couple of different books. Really not hard to determine, and theirs a really good thread about this by BOT, although it's with NCAA basketball.

[SexyMit]

Its the same concept and it is used in all the sports... I was useing it in football last yr ALOT was when I started noticing this movement... and I realized thats how I came up with my saying... When it seems to good to be true to take one team that you know without a shadow of a doubt they should win then it usually is...

[chipski]

All the money was on Lakers and yesterday it went to 6.5 right? So that means sharp side is Utah?

my take is that vegas would not want to make it to obvious that the lakers - 10 is really the play . they may feel they could get no real balance by giving utah as much as 8 pts .
is tricky and we judge the before the fact line movement AFTER WE SEE THE FINAL SCORE . which could not really be accurate in what was occuring beforehand in the thinking behind the line movements or lack thereof .
i would not take +8 pts myself in ths one .

how smart are vegas linemakers ? if those guys really felt the lakers would win convincingly in game 2 maybe they would throw the famous 9.5 or 10 out there just like last night in boston . man , this shis is crazy . lol

[SexyMit]

For instance Hockey couple of nights ago when someone said in the hockey thread it seems to easy tonight with the low price to take Pitt against the Rangers in game 4 at home. That is when the Rangers won that game... Well I was on the Rangers that game that EVERYONE lost ALOT of money that night and was CUSSING the next day.

[SexyMit]

It seems to easy to take the Lakers at -7 since they just beat Utah pretty bad at the same line in game one correct? Another instance what about Boston Atlanta series... IT seemed like a piece of cake to take boston -8 playing in Atlanta when they just beat the shit out of them the 1st 2 games by 20 plus points both games and then you get ONLY -8... hmmm seemed way to easy didn't it

[chipski]

Its the same concept and it is used in all the sports... I was useing it in football last yr ALOT was when I started noticing this movement... and I realized thats how I came up with my saying... When it seems to good to be true to take one team that you know without a shadow of a doubt they should win then it usually is...

so you sayin that when it looks too easy it is usually no good right ?
the thing with this game is that the jazz are famous for being a bad road team and the lakers are the total package and are at home ...

[SexyMit]

In fact I think it was you the other night in hockey... About the PITT game cause it was only -120 against the Rangers the other night. When the money was already all over the PITT game

[chipski]

right but i was confusing myself too after i read it and it made me think that what i said was in fact true but by who i picked i was not backing my theory . lol
i picked the pens when i should have been on ny by the theory if i remember right .

i can tell you that this time last year on wed night the jazz won as 3 pt favs at home over the warriors 127 - 117 in ot . the line moved up to 3.5 from 3 and the night before that both home favs were good convincingly with no real line movememnt occuring .

[chipski]

we have some real line movement in the magic game , jumped from 3.5 to 4 and 4.5 . this is pretty tough . imagine if the pistons win straight up . we would think we had been duped right . the books are trying to CREATE THE IMPRESSION that the magic will win and to plz take the pistons +4 or +4.5 . or is reverse line movement which throws things out of whack if we really do not know vegas's intentions right ?

but in reality if the game is clean it doesn't matter what vegas linemakers think , so in reality the line movement would be a mute point no matter how it moves .
this always is true if the game is clean in all sports 24/7 .

books just follow along with vegas though , but individual books do play with the lines independently playing mind games thats for sure .

[SexyMit]

There is almost 90% on Detroit ML. Which means the line should be going to other way..-3 -2.5 not the way its going now.

[SexyMit]

82% actually but there is some serious money on Orlando at home -3.5 to make it jump up like that. I am taking Orlando and Jazz tonight...

[BrUno0]

There is almost 90% on Detroit ML. Which means the line should be going to other way..-3 -2.5 not the way its going now.

where do you get the ml % from?

[chipski]

need lakers - 7 and ml here and have both teams in the other one on parlays hoping for a magic win by less than the spread .

if we look at it like this ? the celtics were thought of as a powerhouse at home against an underachiever on the road and they did not get the job done at home last night .
so now we have another team at home tonight in the lakers thought of as a powerhouse at home against an underachiever on the road . so do they get the job done after the big celts were horrible ? hmmm
i will be glad when it's over . need solid matchups i really love . though was thinking this was one of them .

[SexyMit]

where do you get the ml % from?

Sportsbook.com

[SexyMit]

need lakers - 7 and ml here and have both teams in the other one on parlays hoping for a magic win by less than the spread .

if we look at it like this ? the celtics were thought of as a powerhouse at home against an underachiever on the road and they did not get the job done at home last night .
so now we have another team at home tonight in the lakers thought of as a powerhouse at home against an underachiever on the road . so do they get the job done after the big celts were horrible ? hmmm
i will be glad when it's over . need solid matchups i really love . though was thinking this was one of them .

Remember game 3 Orlando and Toronto... Toronto at home had gotten beaten up in Orlando both games and Toronto opened at -3 at home and everyone was taking the points and Magic cause it was the easy thing to do... Take the points they won the 1st 2 games and now they are getting points same instance tonight. Orlando lost both the 1st 2 games and are now at home opening up as 3.5 favorites...

[BrUno0]

Sportsbook.com

sportsbook tells you the %'s they feel like telling you, i've heard that their betting trends are very inaccurate, since i use to use that as well.

http://twominutewarning.com/bettracker.htm

^real deal

[chipski]

in the raptors game 3 i liked raptors to win game 3 because they were at home and was playing the raptors to not be in the avoid the sweep category . i actually think the raptors have a great team and no way did i think they would lose at home to go down 3 - 0 . game 4 in toronto of that series , did i think raps would tie the series at 2 - 2 ? not really , didn't like either side . magic won 106 - 94 .

so , will magic fall in the 3 - 0 hole and be out of it facing elimination every game thereafter ? i dont think there is any way to have confidence either way in picking this game . if mr. big shot plays like he did in first 2 games then the pistons could very easily win , prince on his game too then pistons are the shiz nik ! ( when 2 or 3 players for the pistons combine to have a great game within the same game the team performs and looks like the best ever .)
same for magic , they get great performance from howard and lewis and another guy .... could very well come down to the pt spread .. ( a match ya , i can do everything you can do better kinda game , back at ya action)

no way to really have faith either way here from a true realistic breakdown .

sure , the magic could very easily get swept in this series so they would have to lose game 3 for this scenario to unfold .
is like flipping a coin is my take . which is pretty good odds though so millions will be right on the outcome of this game like every game . doesn't mean it was a smart play really , looking at the big picture and the way of thinking involved in making selections in games to come ...

odds of the spread coming into play here ? i dont really like this game , is better to have both sides on parlays and hope for the fav win straight up and the dog to cover with the pts in GAMES LIKE THIS ONE . +4.5 bought up to 5 on parlays is pretty enticing .

i like lakers to cover and the magic to win su . my pick was magic to win the series so that would def make my play on the magic tonight , but not giving up pts for the possible torture treatment I would have to endure losing like that .

[Big_Cheese]

All I can say is Boston has won and easily covered every game at home, except for this game last night. This is because the line shot up like a cannon at gametime. BOOKIES dont lose this kind of money... Im happy with the Lakers at -6, glad I got them there, they are yet in my opinion to throw a game. Now if the line jumps up to -8 or -9, I believe those on LA are screwed. I will feel safe at gametime as long as it doesnt move past the opening line of -7'. I unloaded on LA. If it gets up to -9, I will bail myself out a little and maybe middle it ----> This is the best option if this scenario comes about, I think there is at least a 20% chance it would land between 6 and 9. LETS SEE, Im guessing it will go off at -7' and this is a good thing !!!

[chipski]

wow , that ending in the laker game was looking funny . deron williams 3 straight 3 pters like he owned the place ! whew . good thing lakers hit their free throws and the jazz missed the last 3 pter .
that ending in the last minute should show everyone that the spread cover could very easily go either way and has little to do with the rest of the game or if its a blowout or not .
jazz were not within reach to win but they kept playing like they wanted to cover the spread !!! lol nothing new right . congrats to those on lakers .

[chipski]

rainbowworld is which mod ?

i like lakers to cover and the magic to win su . my pick was magic to win the series so that would def make my play on the magic tonight

here you go rainbowworld

[dodif]

thread is rubbish
no good info
all made up

[chipski]

thread is rubbish
no good info
all made up

just like the usa landing on the moon , you dont really believe that either I hope .

[SexyMit]

Looks like Sharps are on San Antonio tonight

[BrUno0]

phuck betting games.

1st halfs ftw.

[SexyMit]

I like 2nd halfs also...

[BrUno0]

yes, indeed.