Why do people think they're smart by fading the public?

MrXYZ · 03-23-11, 04:19 AM

Public faders generally have negative personalities & want to see everyone lose. Very similar to amateur traders who specialise in short selling.

NBA_Brosuf · 03-23-11, 04:33 AM

The psychology behind it is this.

If the public is winning all the time or have a higher percentage of winning then the bookies would close shop. It is just a fact that the booking business is booming and they are eating up the heavy public money. So the logic behind it is to fade the public to win. In other words, when you fade the public, you yourself is the bookie or the house. It is like how in some casinos, they ask you...Do you want to be the banker? Well duh, knowing that the house has an edge, who wouldn't want to be the house? So then if you bet long enough and you play with the house aka against the public, you should continue to be in business and in the long run, you will be in the plus.

So I think and usually I'm wrong. LOL

dwluv3333 · 03-23-11, 04:41 AM

IMO Vegas doesn't know what the hell is going to happen, no way they can trick the public into betting the wrong side. They can only try to make the public feel 50/50 on the spread and think real hard on which side to take. 90+% of public wagered on the Bulls today at -4 and Vegas' estimation was off by 29 points..... clearly public knew what they were doing today.

Houses win because of their juice and money line upsets. Think how it must have felt being the house when 99% of people took LAL money line against Cavs and lost.

It's not like a casino where the long-term probability guarantees house profit, any player can go 100% winnings if they choose the right play.

NBA_Brosuf · 03-23-11, 04:49 AM

Well Vegas sure can have a saying in it since it is them who sets up them spread.

They also know that the public or actually fans who are living near LA loves them Lakers and also are big betters living in the hollywood area who loves them Lakers. You think Vegas is going to set the spread so that them heavy betters on the Lakers are going to win all the time?

Vegas is all about making money. They do whatever to make sure they are still making money. If they can wipe out everybody in 1 game, they would.

Public do win some but around here, we have terms like "a trap" game which means that the spread is so funky that it makes you go on one side, the loser side and vegas takes it all.

I'm still learning all of this myself so hope someone who is of a higher caliber can answer your question for you.

MrXYZ · 03-23-11, 06:23 AM

Also keep in mind that bookies spread their risk across every NBA game, night after night. With the variety of bets on offer there's always more losers than winners - so a heavily backed Lakers ML isn't going to take them out.

Maybe you could experiment with a purely mechanical system where you bet on every line that's under 50%? I'm sure a few punters have tried it.

snapperman2 · 03-23-11, 06:37 AM

If the public is heavily backing one side in a game then that side will likely get overvalued. So many people will bet on the public team that the spread and moneyline on that team will move in such a way that is unfavorable for bettors of the public team and favorable for the backers of the opposing team. Therefore, at least in theory, it is better to fade the public.

JR007 · 03-23-11, 07:20 AM

Originally posted by MrXYZ

Public faders generally have negative personalities & want to see everyone lose. Very similar to amateur traders who specialise in short selling.

" a fool and his money is soon parted"...has nothing to due with negative personality....i rather refer to it as being a realist.....short sellers take advantage of a situation to make money...public is greedy.....in sportsbetting, adjustable rate mortgages, hummers..starbucks coffee, bottled water, you name it

when the public is 70% on a game and the line does not move..tells you something...notice in the tournament
lots of lines around 4.5..to 7.5 on the favorite ??????.......fouling at the end to lengthen the game.....value will be betting against the public teams..look at the north carolina,washington game last week...wash travels crosscountry...basically a home game for NC....NC wins by 3..the line 4..4.5....ask yourself why the line so low
to begin with

Bradyd · 03-23-11, 10:32 AM

In theory, the general public does little to no research on plays. They just make a wager on a play at face value.. Therefore many posters don't want to be on the same side with them. What's ironic about the entire situation is that most posters do little to no research on plays also....

dynamite140 · 03-23-11, 02:03 PM

No doubt in my mind this is NO COINCIDENCES

stevenash · 03-23-11, 02:06 PM

Newsflash, Falcons and Patriots at home in the NFL this past season were the 'publics' darlings.
Both those teams covered at home more times than not.

Public wins, public loses, sharps win, sharps lose, if I like the game the public likes also, don't care, I'm betting it.

anl096 · 03-30-11, 09:36 AM

If you want to make a profit in the long run betting on sports, you need to start betting smart and understand whats going on, on your bookies side of things.

Understand why to fade the public

Lets take an easy bet to understand to start with, over/under. Did you know you can make a profit blindly betting the under every football and basketball game!?

HOW?

Most over/under bets are split about 80/20 by the public, thats right 80% of the public will take the over in most of the games. PEOPLE LIKE POINTS SCORED. Are you normally watching a football game hoping to see alot of defense and a low scoring game, or do you like to see offense? Guess what, your bookie knows the population will take the over. Ofcourse if they set the over/under so high that its always the under, people are going to catch on. So they only shade the total a few points in favor of taking the under. These few point are enough so that the bookie wins 53-54% of the time. The bookie isn't just looking to balance their books, but looking to take every penny from the public they can.

People also like favorites. Sports like baseball and hockey where there is no spread, just moneyline, the public is generally going to take the favorite. After all they are the favorite, they're supposed to win. You'll lose 3 times as much money betting baseball favorites instead of the dogs.

Your bookie knows where the public is going to put their money the majority of the time. They have years and years of data and statistics to use to make a pretty good guess which side the public is going to pick. Think of betting on sports as buying stock. Your bookie controls the price (the spread or moneyline) and if the public is going to buy heavily on one side, bet on your bookie's not under selling that pick.

CHAZ · 03-30-11, 09:54 AM

Its just something to watch, but like everything else another piece to the puzzle. Heres some interesting tidbits to check out...

Page Not Found - Sports Insights

http://www.sportsinsights.com/sports-betting-articles/nba/bet-against-public/2010-11-season-review.aspx

cant call it · 03-30-11, 10:03 AM

dont fade the pub, just fade the locks big babyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy

EBDOG · 03-30-11, 10:09 AM

Originally posted by dwluv3333

IMO Vegas doesn't know what the hell is going to happen, no way they can trick the public into betting the wrong side. They can only try to make the public feel 50/50 on the spread and think real hard on which side to take. 90+% of public wagered on the Bulls today at -4 and Vegas' estimation was off by 29 points..... clearly public knew what they were doing today.

Houses win because of their juice and money line upsets. Think how it must have felt being the house when 99% of people took LAL money line against Cavs and lost.

It's not like a casino where the long-term probability guarantees house profit, any player can go 100% winnings if they choose the right play.

Wrong when they make the lines they have inside information, the people who make the lines know people on the inside of each team and know for example if there is trouble in the locker room, players are sick, injured, etc.

CHAZ · 03-30-11, 10:36 AM

Originally posted by dwluv3333

IMO Vegas doesn't know what the hell is going to happen, no way they can trick the public into betting the wrong side. They can only try to make the public feel 50/50 on the spread and think real hard on which side to take. 90+% of public wagered on the Bulls today at -4 and Vegas' estimation was off by 29 points..... clearly public knew what they were doing today.

Houses win because of their juice and money line upsets. Think how it must have felt being the house when 99% of people took LAL money line against Cavs and lost.

It's not like a casino where the long-term probability guarantees house profit, any player can go 100% winnings if they choose the right play.

Vegas is ridiculously good at picking these spreads and being right on. The house makes money either way, hints why they want everyone 50/50. Thats why spreads are -110 and not even money, either way the books get paid.

Avenger · 04-23-11, 12:26 AM

Lately, the public seems to be winning a lot???

I think I'll stick to capping games, I did better doing that than fading the public.