4th game in 5 days: How many points is it worth on the line?

[cleaveland]

I'm trying to figure out why the line didn't move more for the Portland/Atlanta game. I'm thinking that the fact this game is Portland's fourth in five days must affect the line but how much?

1 point? 2 points? 3 points? What do you think?

[vyomguy]

First of all....its 4 games in 6 days....they had 2 days of rest in between B2B's.

[suicidekings]

Average MOVs in the last game this season

4th in 5 (road team): -3.7 pts
4th in 5 (home team): -3.4 pts
5th in 7 (road team): -5 pts
5th in 7 (home team): -2.9 pts

Keep in mind that the Average MOV for road teams is -3.1 pts and for home teams its +3.1 pts. These numbers will not be directly reflected in the lines because they represent too large of a shift to match what the market expects. Also, these are only averages, so certain teams handle it MUCH better than others and also some teams have had to deal with it more often. Not enough data to give a generalized solution that you can apply across the board.

[alamo]

It is worth approximately 1.5735 pts

[cleaveland]

Average MOVs in the last game this season

4th in 5 (road team): -3.7 pts
4th in 5 (home team): -3.4 pts
5th in 7 (road team): -5 pts
5th in 7 (home team): -2.9 pts

Keep in mind that the Average MOV for road teams is -3.1 pts and for home teams its +3.1 pts. These numbers will not be directly reflected in the lines because they represent too large of a shift to match what the market expects. Also, these are only averages, so certain teams handle it MUCH better than others and also some teams have had to deal with it more often. Not enough data to give a generalized solution that you can apply across the board.

Thanks!