2004 Red Sox and... The 2008 Phoenix Suns?

[Bill Dozer]

Just say'n....A real juicy series price could make for a nice hedge bet later on.

[Doc JS]

Bill,
Bet only what you can afford to lose. The Suns are done.

Doc

[unde0087]

ya, i agree, this is the Spurs we are talking about here. They are not going to lose that many in a row especially not at home and the fact that they have completely dominated this series is an indicator of what is to come.

[Bill Dozer]

Bill,
Bet only what you can afford to lose. The Suns are done.

Doc

I think that is the consensus which is why there may be good value. No one thought the 76ers had a shot but if you bet em you can play the Pistons the rest of the way.

I think the Suns have the talent to do it but they don't have a closer's mentality. No killer instinct.

[unde0087]

you might as well take whatever money you are thinking of putting on this and give it to charity because none of it is coming back.

[onlooker]

I thought the Suns could win the series before it started, but now, they have no chance. So I feel there is no value at all.

Good luck Bill.

[babaoriley]

ZERO value. The Spurs are not dropping 2 at home unless Duncan and/or Manu get maimed.

[rake922]

The 2004 Redsox was a once in a lifetime phenomenon of a team coming back from 0-3..... may never happen for another 40 years

[Bill Dozer]

The 2004 Redsox was a once in a lifetime phenomenon of a team coming back from 0-3..... may never happen for another 40 years

Even that rate of occurence can have an advantageous price. All the "no way it can happen" opinons is what leads to a +4000 series price and the ability to scalp nice profits after a single Suns win. It's a numbers game. A big dog is only a good bet if it comes with an even bigger payoff.

As far as coming back 0-3, I do think this NBA is ripe for it. Teams are very close in talent and making small adjustments that lead to very different results.

[unde0087]

Dozer, you are right in saying that it can be done, like in the case of the Red Sox, but I just don't see it happening to the Spurs who play defense and work so well together as a team. Just for Suns to pull this series even they would have to sweep the games in San Antonio and I don't see that happening with the way Suns play on the defensive end. Even though I wanted Suns to win this series I have given up on them because there is no way you win a playoff series especially if you are in a 0-3 hole giving up lay up after layup to a team that is winning championships like they are going out of style.

[unde0087]

that would be a hell of a ticket to cash on though so good luck if you try it.

[Stacocakes]

You have to remember that the Sox had heart and the Suns don't. Save your money for another game

[ryanXL977]

i know someone who bet the sixers+850 series bet

lock of all time

[LT Profits]

Bill,

Have you been dipping into Willie Bee's tequilla again?


Ryan,

The Pistons still win this series, and they are in fact still -275 to do so down 1-2. I must say that the Detroit money line in Game 4 does look too good to be true at -265!

[Dark Horse]

Not counting the influence of the refs, I would estimate that basketball is the last sport in which such a turnaround could happen. If given a choice including hockey, football, and soccer, I would rate baseball at the top of the list.

To illustrate, imagine a 7-game finals series between the best and worst teams in the league in each of these sports. I'd be willing to bet that baseball, over 100 series, would have the highest ratio of worst team winning the series.

[ryanXL977]

pistons will lose this series

[Bill Dozer]

Dozer, you are right in saying that it can be done, like in the case of the Red Sox, but I just don't see it happening to the Spurs who play defense and work so well together as a team. Just for Suns to pull this series even they would have to sweep the games in San Antonio and I don't see that happening with the way Suns play on the defensive end. Even though I wanted Suns to win this series I have given up on them because there is no way you win a playoff series especially if you are in a 0-3 hole giving up lay up after layup to a team that is winning championships like they are going out of style.

ok so what odds will you give me on the Suns?

[ryanXL977]

suns are not the bosox
the spurs are not the yanks
have the spurs ever blown a 3-0 lead?
or 3-1 for that nmatter
ever?

[Bill Dozer]

Not counting the influence of the refs, I would estimate that basketball is the last sport in which such a turnaround could happen. If given a choice including hockey, football, and soccer, I would rate baseball at the top of the list.

To illustrate, imagine a 7-game finals series between the best and worst teams in the league in each of these sports. I'd be willing to bet that baseball, over 100 series, would have the highest ratio of worst team winning the series.

Probability of injuries to key players should make basketball a contender here right? If any of the Lakers or Celtics go down in the finals it is a different series.

[Bill Dozer]

Bill,

Have you been dipping into Willie Bee's tequilla again?


Ryan,

The Pistons still win this series, and they are in fact still -275 to do so down 1-2. I must say that the Detroit money line in Game 4 does look too good to be true at -265!

Yes LT, I'm falling down drunk...Now what odds will you give me on the Suns to win the series so I can take my insurance policy to Vegas and load up on the Spurs each game?

[Bill Dozer]

suns are not the bosox
the spurs are not the yanks
have the spurs ever blown a 3-0 lead?
or 3-1 for that nmatter
ever?

Have the Yankees? (I mean before 2004 )

[ryanXL977]

thats not a reason why the suns will win, its a reason why the bosox will

[Dark Horse]

Probability of injuries to key players should make basketball a contender here right? If any of the Lakers or Celtics go down in the finals it is a different series.

Yes. If Duncan, Parker, or Ginobili were to roll an ankle and not play for the rest of the series, the balance would shift to where the Suns could still take the series.

Just make sure the pins are sharp, and the voodoo dolls clearly show the jersey numbers.

[LT Profits]

Yes LT, I'm falling down drunk...Now what odds will you give me on the Suns to win the series so I can take my insurance policy to Vegas and load up on the Spurs each game?

35-1

[unde0087]

I am just saying it is not going to happen. Spurs will not lose 4 games in a row.

[DrunkenLullaby]

I don't think it's been mentioned here, so I will.

Very important is that is not .

[ryanXL977]

that is very true right there drunken
very true

[Bill Dozer]

35-1

35-1??? For something that CAN'T happen?

[treece]

35-1??? For something that CAN'T happen?

LT's not stupid.

[LT Profits]

Apparently I AM stupid!

NBA Series Prices Best of Seven 2-2-1-1-1
Sun 4/27 883 Phoenix Suns (Series) +775
3:30PM (EST) 884 San Antonio Spurs (Series) -1200

You could have had 35-1 on a 15/2 shot!

[ryanXL977]

i htink spurs--1200 is good value

[Bill Dozer]

Right but we aren't looking at the market... we are trying to price something that can't happen so mtg the house!

[claggart]

Most of you are missing Bill's point. As gamblers, you should all know that just about anything can happen. Many on here say the Suns have absolutely no chance. Are you absolutely certain? Clearly the odds are in the Spurs favor, but the Suns are due some payback after last year's debacle. The key thing, as Bill pointed out, is the price for a Suns' win. A longshot, but a nice payoff, innit?

Put a little down and then hedge if you are concerned about losing the money. Or do whatever you want. But Spurs -1200 is NOT good value.

[LT Profits]

claggart,

Note that ryan posted that before Game 4. I actually agreed that -1200 was decent value up 3-0. If you assumed that Suns would be -175 in two remaining home games (which they were yesterday) and +175 in two games at San Antonio (they are actually +190 tomorrow), the four game parlay worked out to about 17-1.

[beetman]

The 2004 Redsox was a once in a lifetime phenomenon of a team coming back from 0-3..... may never happen for another 40 years

The Red Sox weren't a very big dog in any of those 4 games, though. Based on the closing lines from covers.com, the line on a Red Sox comeback down 0-3 was only +1839.