Tuesday, March 8: HOU @ PHX -5

PorkyPig · 03-07-11, 07:51 PM

this is going to be tight, rockets playing great ball as of late

macoeric · 03-07-11, 07:53 PM

A gift from the Gods

Pauulzcappin · 03-07-11, 08:05 PM

The write-up is pretty good but there a few problems with this play.

Channing Frye who bailed out the suns quite a few times on their recent road trip (2 game winners) is out with a dislocated shoulder for two weeks. They lose their best shooter as of late and one of the main threat of their offense.

Secondly the Suns are back home from a really big road trip, it's not usually a good spot to play a team.

I also disagree with the line you set. -7.5 in a conference game is too much when both teams have been on a good streak. Houston has actually played good defense in the last 4 games, well at least for them.

suicidekings · 03-07-11, 08:37 PM

Frye being out is obviously an issue, but as I say, there have been significant contributions from several players in the Suns' recent hot streak. They have a strong bench that gets involved in every game, so I would argue that the Suns can substitute Pietrus into the starting lineup and spread the additional minutes around among 4-5 players to mitigate the problem. The greatest strengths in their offensive sets have been great ball rotation around the perimeter and solid penetration from their point guards, providing open looks for multiple shooters from mid and long range. Frye has been stepping up lately, but that shouldn't detract from the recent success of the other Suns players.

JR007 · 03-07-11, 08:40 PM

Good luck with this play..but.classic go against home after the road trip as paul pointed out

forzuto13 · 03-07-11, 09:35 PM

Screw the no-home-play-after-road trip B.S. Someone tried to lay that cappers' vodoo when I played a heavily publicly favored dog recently, which is supposed to be bad luck too. I see Phoenix winning this. I'd like to see the line more around -3 or -4, but I think they can cover this. Yeah, just hope that they don't have another O.T. game! No Frye to save 'em. Good luck. I got 'em at -2 in a parlay with Lakers -4 and Clippers -1 (who just won).

JR007 · 03-07-11, 09:43 PM

lOOK AT ALL THE TROUBLE THE BULLS ARE HAVING TONIGHT.....WITH THE HORNETS SHORTHANDED

suicidekings · 03-07-11, 09:57 PM

Originally posted by JR007

lOOK AT ALL THE TROUBLE THE BULLS ARE HAVING TONIGHT.....WITH THE HORNETS SHORTHANDED

The Bulls -10.5 was a totally unreasonable line for that game though... Should have been more like CHI -6 but the Bulls are hot enough right now that the line was steep.

kobstopa · 03-07-11, 09:59 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

Frye being out is obviously an issue, but as I say, there have been significant contributions from several players in the Suns' recent hot streak. They have a strong bench that gets involved in every game, so I would argue that the Suns can substitute Pietrus into the starting lineup and spread the additional minutes around among 4-5 players to mitigate the problem. The greatest strengths in their offensive sets have been great ball rotation around the perimeter and solid penetration from their point guards, providing open looks for multiple shooters from mid and long range. Frye has been stepping up lately, but that shouldn't detract from the recent success of the other Suns players.

it is a big issue, not only his clutch play but the height & mismatch
but Mickael Pietrus is also a big key + consistent from Grant Hill, I think they will need Aaron Brooks big mins who is started to come around & fit in nicely.

suicidekings · 03-07-11, 10:13 PM

Originally posted by kobstopa

it is a big issue, not only his clutch play but the height & mismatch
but Mickael Pietrus is also a big key + consistent from Grant Hill, I think they will need Aaron Brooks big mins who is started to come around & fit in nicely.

It will be interesting to see which backup PG will be the one to assert himself in this game after being traded between the two teams. I've always been a big fan of Goran Dragic's explosiveness, but I think the trade was more of a net gain for the Suns. Brooks working under Nash is going to be a devastating combo when it all comes together for them.

lunchbawks · 03-07-11, 10:16 PM

I took the -5 bait can't wait to lose tomorrow

demens · 03-07-11, 10:54 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

The Bulls -10.5 was a totally unreasonable line for that game though... Should have been more like CHI -6 but the Bulls are hot enough right now that the line was steep.

Without Paul? NO would be under 500 by a lot, i think 10 is not that crazy considering the Bulls home record.

Vulcan300 · 03-07-11, 11:06 PM

you think the line will stay or shoot up a half pt after tonights game?

suicidekings · 03-07-11, 11:33 PM

Originally posted by demens

Without Paul? NO would be under 500 by a lot, i think 10 is not that crazy considering the Bulls home record.

I don't know. NOH being used to playing the slow pace, and being used to playing without Paul didn't make the net effect in this game that severe, IMO. +10.5 is a lot to give to a team that plays their style of game. Regardless, it didn't appeal to me as much as other games tonight so the point is moot. I'm just waiting on my Rockets -4 to hopefully cash tonight, and then it's on to the stellar card for tomorrow. It could be a big night.

demens · 03-07-11, 11:35 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

I don't know. NOH being used to playing the slow pace, and being used to playing without Paul didn't make the net effect in this game that severe, IMO. +10.5 is a lot to give to a team that plays their style of game. Regardless, it didn't appeal to me as much as other games tonight so the point is moot. I'm just waiting on my Rockets -4 to hopefully cash tonight, and then it's on to the stellar card for tomorrow. It could be a big night.

What else are you looking at other then the Suns?

suicidekings · 03-07-11, 11:35 PM

Originally posted by Vulcan300

you think the line will stay or shoot up a half pt after tonights game?

If the game tonight were to go to OT or break 230 or so, I could see the PHX play becoming more appealing to a bigger crowd. I can't see big action hitting it overnight, but I think it will close strong tomorrow at game time. I'm not really concerned with line movement on this one. I believe in the play.

QUEST001 · 03-07-11, 11:51 PM

GL on your Suns -5. The trap seems like Hou+5. They seem to be using lots of energy tonight here in SAC.(I live down the street from arena). Biggest trap tomorrow seems like lakers -4.5. Line will be very appealing to public then ticket gets flushed.GL on your plays......

demens · 03-07-11, 11:54 PM

Hide yo kids. Its a TRAP.

larry040681 · 03-08-11, 12:10 AM

is -5 too much to give for the ROCKETS? how many points SUNS will win tom SK? I think w/o Frye, SUNS will have problems.. can't rely that much on Carter...

whadeeb · 03-08-11, 12:12 AM

everything I got on -5 hehe

suicidekings · 03-08-11, 12:14 AM

I don't understand why the Lakers opened at -3.5 in Atlanta directly after annihilating the best team in the league, and after serving the Hawks when they were in LA for the last game. This game has no appeal to me, as I know the Lakers are the far superior team but the line confuses me and I could never take the Hawks in this spot.

I really like the Pacers -1.5, Cavs/Warriors Over 216, MIA 1Q -2.5/-3 and Cavs ML, in that order.

kidcd · 03-08-11, 12:17 AM

Like the Suns too I hope your right good luck

suicidekings · 03-08-11, 12:17 AM

Originally posted by demens

Hide yo kids. Its a TRAP.

No trap. But the Lakers already sent the message to the Hawks. Where's the motivation for a beatdown?

kaijunn · 03-08-11, 12:21 AM

Rockets have been ballin' lately. I like them, but good luck.

Vulcan300 · 03-08-11, 12:26 AM

Originally posted by suicidekings

No trap. But the Lakers already sent the message to the Hawks. Where's the motivation for a beatdown?

i think lakers are making a statement to the league in general from now to the playoffs. phil is getting them ready for his last championship run and i don't see them taking this game light esp against seeded teams. e.g phil putting his starters back in the 4th when he didn't need to last game.

liking the suns and lakers tomorrow for sure, if i'm keeping the my # of plays tight.

M.W. · 03-08-11, 12:27 AM

You like the Pacers? Why?

demens · 03-08-11, 12:28 AM

Originally posted by suicidekings

No trap. But the Lakers already sent the message to the Hawks. Where's the motivation for a beatdown?

I'm being facetious in a ghetto way. Dont believe in traps.

Interesting leans. I was leaning the other way on 2 of the games. Philly and GS.

I think the Philly train is slowing down a bit. They won 6/7 but the last few were some close calls against pretty weak teams. Pacers haven't been too impressive lately either though, maybe a no play for me.

But GS i think should be solid. The wheels are about to fall off the Cavs wagon imo, i'm surprised they've kept it together as well as they have since losing Jamison. Davis had a few good games, that'll even out, i think starting tomorrow. Cavs are also rated pretty high in pace, not gonna be pretty if they go that route in this game. Warriors already beat them badly this year. GS has a pretty horrific 8-22 road record but its a little better (6-10) vs u500 teams. They did lose in Minny to start the trip, but they beat the Wolves on the road this year before, also beat the Wiz on this trip too and both these teams are better home teams then the Cavs.

Anyway, bets in too late to go back on it anyway.

lyon804 · 03-08-11, 12:32 AM

Solid writeup and analysis SK.

suicidekings · 03-08-11, 12:34 AM

Rockets put up 123 points tonight tonight @SAC while allowing 101. Adelman regulated the minutes for Lowry, Scola, and Martin, knowing that they have a tough game tomorrow, but SAC still made the team run a lot. Pretty much what I expected from tonight.

suicidekings · 03-08-11, 12:53 AM

Originally posted by demens

I'm being facetious in a ghetto way. Dont believe in traps. Interesting leans. I was leaning the other way on 2 of the games. Philly and GS. I think the Philly train is slowing down a bit. They won 6/7 but the last few were some close calls against pretty weak teams. Pacers haven't been too impressive lately either though, maybe a no play for me. But GS i think should be solid. The wheels are about to fall off the Cavs wagon imo, i'm surprised they've kept it together as well as they have since losing Jamison. Davis had a few good games, that'll even out, i think starting tomorrow. Cavs are also rated pretty high in pace, not gonna be pretty if they go that route in this game. Warriors already beat them badly this year. GS has a pretty horrific 8-22 but its a little better (6-10) vs u500 teams. They did lose in Minny to start the trip, but they beat the Wolves on the road this year before, also beat the Wiz on this trip too and both these teams are better home teams then the Cavs. Anyway, bets in too late to go back on it anyway.

The Cavs ML was primarily because I don't agree with GS being -3.5 faves here. Maybe GS -1.5. I'll likely stick to the Over 216 and not touch the side, as I feel the Over is a lot stronger.

The Pacers are undervalued because the Sixers have been money recently, if against primarily crap teams. Their last 6 games have been against GSW, MIN, DAL, @CLE, DET, WAS. I feel like the oddsmakers have been trending towards setting steep lines on Philly and daring bettors to take them. Making them dogs in Indiana doesn't show a lot of confidence in the Sixers all of a sudden. I feel like Pacers -3.5 would be a more appropriate line. Philadelphia has to be feeling fairly good about making it into the playoffs with a few game lead on the Pacers, and I think Indiana is confident that they're capable of holding on to that #8 spot, but are aware that the Bucks and Bobcats are right on their heels if they falter.

While writing this, I talked myself fully into the play.

Pacers ML (-110) x3

suicidekings · 03-08-11, 01:03 AM

Originally posted by lyon804

Solid writeup and analysis SK.

Here's hoping for a solid day.

forzuto13 · 03-08-11, 01:07 AM

Originally posted by Vulcan300

i think lakers are making a statement to the league in general from now to the playoffs. phil is getting them ready for his last championship run and i don't see them taking this game light esp against seeded teams. e.g phil putting his starters back in the 4th when he didn't need to last game.

liking the suns and lakers tomorrow for sure, if i'm keeping the my # of plays tight.

Agreed. Lakers are not gonna relent since they broke out of the All-Star break and have a message to prove. Plus they will want home court advantage if possible, so every game is an important game. They won't have any B2B after this so their "look ahead" game is not an issue. Atlanta is good at home so Lakers will bring their game.

tshizzle · 03-08-11, 09:07 AM

I like the suns in this one.

Pauulzcappin · 03-08-11, 09:23 AM

Looks like Scola is questionable. Playing the Suns if he's out.