I'm done trying to follow line movement

No coincidences · 03-05-11, 10:45 PM

And yes, I know the line dipped a little at mid-morning, which is a critical time for movement. But let's face it: early money was on the over, late money was on the over, public money was on the under, and this one wasn't even close to the opening number.

goldengreek · 03-05-11, 10:48 PM

Same shit with the wash / minny game

pinny was even leaning haevy on the over at one point being the only book at 213 and juiced

then the drop it last 10-15 mins after i bet the over

CK · 03-05-11, 10:52 PM

Well, this game was a blowout which usually throws totals generally out of whack. That being said, I know there is certainly value in watching line movement, but at most, I use it as confirmation for a lean I already have, not something to be used solely on its own to pick plays. At the end of the day, let's not forget that this is still real life sports, where anything can and does happen - more ppl thinking something will happen won't make it so in the end.

No coincidences · 03-05-11, 10:53 PM

Originally posted by goldengreek

Same shit with the wash / minny game

pinny was even leaning haevy on the over at one point being the only book at 213 and juiced

then the drop it last 10-15 mins after i bet the over

At least they dropped it at some point.

The IND/HOU game was a total whiff job.

I cashed a ton of totals last year tracking Pinny's numbers. I've lost just as much -- if not more -- tailing their movement this season.

7secondsOrLess · 03-05-11, 10:53 PM

im done with this, im done with that, blah blah blah

No coincidences · 03-05-11, 10:54 PM

Originally posted by CK

Well, this game was a blowout which usually throws totals generally out of whack. That being said, I know there is certainly value in watching line movement, but at most, I use it as confirmation for a lean I already have, not something to be used solely on its own to pick plays. At the end of the day, let's not forget that this is still real life sports, where anything can and does happen - more ppl thinking something will happen won't make it so in the end.

I do too -- I was wrong on this one.

I just went bigger than usual because the movement was confirming my lean.

paco · 03-05-11, 10:54 PM

dolphan34 · 03-05-11, 10:54 PM

You seem like a nice guy, but after seeing so many of your line movement threads for over a year, I am thankful.

No coincidences · 03-05-11, 10:55 PM

Will be interesting to see what happens in this UTAH/SAC game, because it looks like the same thing's going to happen:

TOTALS - OVER/UNDER
03/04 15:54 206 -105 / 206 -105
03/05 04:10 206 -107 / 206 -103
03/05 05:01 206 -114 / 206 +103
03/05 05:03 206½ -110 / 206½ +100
03/05 09:46 207½ -114 / 207½ +103
03/05 09:48 208½ -105 / 208½ -105
03/05 10:32 208½ +101 / 208½ -111
03/05 10:34 208 -103 / 208 -107
03/05 10:52 208 -104 / 208 -106
03/05 11:13 208 -103 / 208 -107
03/05 11:29 208 -106 / 208 -104
03/05 11:48 208 -108 / 208 -102
03/05 11:57 208 -109 / 208 -101
03/05 12:20 208 -110 / 208 +100
03/05 12:29 208 -108 / 208 -102
03/05 12:30 208 -107 / 208 -103
03/05 12:35 208 -114 / 208 +103
03/05 12:36 209 -104 / 209 -106
03/05 12:53 209 -106 / 209 -104
03/05 12:56 209 -107 / 209 -103
03/05 13:03 209 -106 / 209 -104
03/05 13:38 209 -102 / 209 -108
03/05 14:15 209 +100 / 209 -110
03/05 14:18 208 -107 / 208 -103
03/05 14:19 208½ -105 / 208½ -105
03/05 14:20 208½ -107 / 208½ -103
03/05 14:24 208½ -110 / 208½ +100
03/05 16:20 208½ -109 / 208½ -101
03/05 18:01 208½ -105 / 208½ -105
03/05 18:37 208½ -109 / 208½ -101
03/05 20:01 208½ -110 / 208½ +100
03/05 20:16 208½ -113 / 208½ +102
03/05 20:23 209½ -102 / 209½ -108
03/05 20:46 209½ -103 / 209½ -107
03/05 20:51 209½ -105 / 209½ -105
03/05 21:02 209½ -107 / 209½ -103
03/05 21:06 209½ -110 / 209½ +100
03/05 21:08 209½ -111 / 209½ +101
03/05 21:09 209½ -110 / 209½ +100
03/05 21:10 209½ -117 / 209½ +106

No coincidences · 03-05-11, 10:58 PM

Originally posted by dolphan34

You seem like a nice guy, but after seeing so many of your line movement threads for over a year, I am thankful.

I just point out movement -- I don't tell anybody to blindly follow.

CK · 03-05-11, 10:58 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

I do too -- I was wrong on this one.

I just went bigger than usual because the movement was confirming my lean.

Gotcha, yah, I hear you. Definitely been guilty of that, in my case, re-upping on a previous bet after line moved showed lots of action on my side... heh. G'luck on the next one.

dolphan34 · 03-05-11, 11:00 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

I just point out movement -- I don't tell anybody to blindly follow.

Yea I know you do it as kind of a warning if you see something interesting. I know you are trying to be helpful, but I've always believed line movement doesn't say much.

suicidekings · 03-05-11, 11:30 PM

No. The Pacers/Rockets line was EXACTLY where it should have been. It came out as 216.5 for me. But just because a line is released at a particular point and the line moves throughout the day doesn't doesn't guarantee that it will end up close to the actual game total. Looking at the lines you posted, the most interesting and relevant piece of information in the IND/HOU line history was where the line was sitting BEFORE the limits went up at 10am eastern.

If you know in advance (or even suspect) that you're going to be hit from a particular direction, you don't just stand straight up and take it. You lean into it to absorb the blow. Food for thought...

No coincidences · 03-05-11, 11:34 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

No. The Pacers/Rockets line was EXACTLY where it should have been. It came out as 216.5 for me. But just because a line is released at a particular point and the line moves throughout the day doesn't doesn't guarantee that it will end up close to the actual game total. Looking at the lines you posted, the most interesting and relevant piece of information in the IND/HOU line history was where the line was sitting BEFORE the limits went up at 10am eastern.

If you know in advance (or even suspect) that you're going to be hit from a particular direction, you don't just stand straight up and take it. You lean into it to absorb the blow. Food for thought...

I don't understand what you're saying, SK.

No coincidences · 03-05-11, 11:34 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Will be interesting to see what happens in this UTAH/SAC game, because it looks like the same thing's going to happen:

TOTALS - OVER/UNDER
03/04 15:54 206 -105 / 206 -105
03/05 04:10 206 -107 / 206 -103
03/05 05:01 206 -114 / 206 +103
03/05 05:03 206½ -110 / 206½ +100
03/05 09:46 207½ -114 / 207½ +103
03/05 09:48 208½ -105 / 208½ -105
03/05 10:32 208½ +101 / 208½ -111
03/05 10:34 208 -103 / 208 -107
03/05 10:52 208 -104 / 208 -106
03/05 11:13 208 -103 / 208 -107
03/05 11:29 208 -106 / 208 -104
03/05 11:48 208 -108 / 208 -102
03/05 11:57 208 -109 / 208 -101
03/05 12:20 208 -110 / 208 +100
03/05 12:29 208 -108 / 208 -102
03/05 12:30 208 -107 / 208 -103
03/05 12:35 208 -114 / 208 +103
03/05 12:36 209 -104 / 209 -106
03/05 12:53 209 -106 / 209 -104
03/05 12:56 209 -107 / 209 -103
03/05 13:03 209 -106 / 209 -104
03/05 13:38 209 -102 / 209 -108
03/05 14:15 209 +100 / 209 -110
03/05 14:18 208 -107 / 208 -103
03/05 14:19 208½ -105 / 208½ -105
03/05 14:20 208½ -107 / 208½ -103
03/05 14:24 208½ -110 / 208½ +100
03/05 16:20 208½ -109 / 208½ -101
03/05 18:01 208½ -105 / 208½ -105
03/05 18:37 208½ -109 / 208½ -101
03/05 20:01 208½ -110 / 208½ +100
03/05 20:16 208½ -113 / 208½ +102
03/05 20:23 209½ -102 / 209½ -108
03/05 20:46 209½ -103 / 209½ -107
03/05 20:51 209½ -105 / 209½ -105
03/05 21:02 209½ -107 / 209½ -103
03/05 21:06 209½ -110 / 209½ +100
03/05 21:08 209½ -111 / 209½ +101
03/05 21:09 209½ -110 / 209½ +100
03/05 21:10 209½ -117 / 209½ +106

Bailed out by overtime.

nulldah · 03-05-11, 11:52 PM

yea, maybe you should decrease the effect of line movement a little bit.

for some reason, when i saw this thread title, without even see thread starter, nocoin directly come into my mind

suicidekings · 03-06-11, 12:01 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

I don't understand what you're saying, SK.

Available lines at Pinnacle at 9:57am (taken from a different source. SBROdds sucks...):

OVER 216.5 +103
UNDER 216.5 -114

The line stayed there until 11:30am when it moved to:

OVER 215.5 -110
UNDER 215.5 +100

when the average market price was at 215.5/216, at which point the -114 was no longer a sufficient deterrent to prevent action coming in on the Under so they were forced to drop the line to match the market.

Long story short, they had a lean on the Under and set themselves before the limits came off to make their lines less attractive with the -114 than other books at -110. They held it as long as it made sense to do so, and then adjusted their line to match the market, thus minimizing the amount of money they accepted on the Under at the higher number.

I don't want to overdramatize this as this particular move was small and they didn't get blasted on it. But the principle is the same for their approach to discouraging action on a side. I'm also not encouraging you to dig deeper into the line movements because watching lines will ALWAYS be a distant third or worse to (1) developing consistent and accurate lines of your own and (2) to making the appropriate adjustments for player injuries, travel, and other key game to game factors.

Anthonyg7 · 03-06-11, 12:36 AM

Originally posted by suicidekings

Available lines at Pinnacle at 9:57am (taken from a different source. SBROdds sucks...):

OVER 216.5 +103
UNDER 216.5 -114

The line stayed there until 11:30am when it moved to:

OVER 215.5 -110
UNDER 215.5 +100

when the average market price was at 215.5/216, at which point the -114 was no longer a sufficient deterrent to prevent action coming in on the Under so they were forced to drop the line to match the market.

Long story short, they had a lean on the Under and set themselves before the limits came off to make their lines less attractive with the -114 than other books at -110. They held it as long as it made sense to do so, and then adjusted their line to match the market, thus minimizing the amount of money they accepted on the Under at the higher number.

I don't want to overdramatize this as this particular move was small and they didn't get blasted on it. But the principle is the same for their approach to discouraging action on a side. I'm also not encouraging you to dig deeper into the line movements because watching lines will ALWAYS be a distant third or worse to (1) developing consistent and accurate lines of your own and (2) to making the appropriate adjustments for player injuries, travel, and other key game to game factors.

Learned something new. Thanks SK

No coincidences · 03-06-11, 12:42 AM

If Pinny leaned under, though, why did they move it from 214.5 at open to the 216.5 before the mid-morning drop? Should the initial move from 214.5 to 215 with + money on the under be ignored?

playboy_1 · 03-06-11, 12:42 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

And yes, I know the line dipped a little at mid-morning, which is a critical time for movement. But let's face it: early money was on the over, late money was on the over, public money was on the under, and this one wasn't even close to the opening number.

what do you talking about public money was on the over clearly line start 214 end up 218 %64 of the public was on the over

lakerboy · 03-06-11, 12:43 AM

Just cap the games. Line movement meanss NOTHING.

No coincidences · 03-06-11, 12:49 AM

Originally posted by playboy_1

what do you talking about public money was on the over clearly line start 214 end up 218 %64 of the public was on the over

At last check before tip, I saw 54% on the under.

Where did you get the 64% on the over?

In any event, a line that starts at 214 and ends up at 218 doesn't always mean the public is following it.

No coincidences · 03-06-11, 12:49 AM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Just cap the games. Line movement meanss NOTHING.

In all seriousness though LB, I found following line movement a lot easier and more profitable last year than this season in the NBA. But maybe I'm just on the wrong games.

suicidekings · 03-06-11, 12:52 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

If Pinny leaned under, though, why did they move it from 214.5 at open to the 216.5 before the mid-morning drop? Should the initial move from 214.5 to 215 with + money on the under be ignored?

At low limits, that early action gives them feedback and allows them to sharpen the line accordingly. The amount they took in during that time was likely a very small component of their overall daily cash flow. Artificially holding a line in place without a reason gives them no new information. They just let the market do it's thing and their computer system manages the majority of price changes on the lines to optimize their position. They probably won't learn anything significant most of the time, but when they do, it could save them a ton.

daimoshokage · 03-06-11, 12:54 AM

just flip a coin..

dynamite140 · 03-06-11, 12:59 AM

Originally posted by dolphan34

You seem like a nice guy, but after seeing so many of your line movement threads for over a year, I am thankful.

Trust me, you will see plenty more and more everyday.

This guy doesn't do anything besides look at the lines

Every bet of his is based on line movement. Every thread he creates is ALWAYS related to line movement.

dynamite140 · 03-06-11, 01:01 AM

Originally posted by nulldah

yea, maybe you should decrease the effect of line movement a little bit.

for some reason, when i saw this thread title, without even see thread starter, nocoin directly come into my mind

You think? Line movement is the only thing that goes into his mind

No coincidences · 03-06-11, 01:01 AM

Originally posted by dynamite140

Trust me, you will see plenty more and more everyday.

This guy doesn't do anything besides look at the lines

Every bet of his is based on line movement. Every thread he creates is ALWAYS related to line movement.

And here comes my psycho stalker....

Surprised it took you so long to respond, lunatic.

No coincidences · 03-06-11, 01:02 AM

If that's "all I did," why do I always post threads the night before games (when public % and line movement has barely been a factor yet)?

dynamite140 · 03-06-11, 01:07 AM

Those are your LEANS

. Even other posters tell you to quit creating a thread on LEANS and every thought that comes to your mind. Just post your plays. When you post your leans, you just loking for attention.

Umm, its pretty obvious who the public will be on in SOME GAMES. Thats when you will fade the public and say i will take X team + whatever points.

dynamite140 · 03-06-11, 01:07 AM

Then when you look at your plays and don't like one of them, you will say, dropping the pistons. Public is on them

lyon804 · 03-06-11, 01:12 AM

Originally posted by suicidekings

Available lines at Pinnacle at 9:57am (taken from a different source. SBROdds sucks...):

OVER 216.5 +103
UNDER 216.5 -114

The line stayed there until 11:30am when it moved to:

OVER 215.5 -110
UNDER 215.5 +100

when the average market price was at 215.5/216, at which point the -114 was no longer a sufficient deterrent to prevent action coming in on the Under so they were forced to drop the line to match the market.

Long story short, they had a lean on the Under and set themselves before the limits came off to make their lines less attractive with the -114 than other books at -110. They held it as long as it made sense to do so, and then adjusted their line to match the market, thus minimizing the amount of money they accepted on the Under at the higher number.

I don't want to overdramatize this as this particular move was small and they didn't get blasted on it. But the principle is the same for their approach to discouraging action on a side. I'm also not encouraging you to dig deeper into the line movements because watching lines will ALWAYS be a distant third or worse to (1) developing consistent and accurate lines of your own and (2) to making the appropriate adjustments for player injuries, travel, and other key game to game factors.

I always knew you was very intelligent I just didn't quite fully understand. Great post... Good thing it went flying over the heads of 90+% of those that might read it...

playboy_1 · 03-06-11, 01:16 AM

"

NBA_Brosuf · 03-06-11, 01:20 AM

This system of play is basing it upon the ride with the house. So tell me a time when the house loses and the public wins for the season? Usually bookies always win? Not quite so.

If bookie always win or has a higher chances of winning in a particular season then yes, I can see how playing the line movement and fading the public for a win can come into play. It just that so happens that this season, the public is right and you're riding on the wrong side.

By the way, I'm neutral when it comes to debating. I'm just here to learn.